Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 281005
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM WAS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF MID CLOUD WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVED
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THEN CENTRAL CO AND UT EARLY THIS MORNING.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION REGISTERING MAINLY AS A TRACE FELL AT A FEW
SITES IN SE UT AND SW AND CENTRAL CO. MOAB-CANYONLANDS SEEMED TO
RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND RECEIVE MODERATE RAIN FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR...BUT NO RAINFALL MEASUREMENT WAS AVAILABLE DUE TO MECHANICAL
PROBLEMS WITH THE RAIN GAGE AT CANYONLANDS AIRPORT. SHORTRANGE
MODELS ARE OVER PREDICTING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE. HAVE KEPT AREAL
COVERAGE HIGH BUT DECREASED THE QPF QUITE A BIT. THE WARM SECTOR
PRECIP WILL GIVE WAY TO A PSEUDO-DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL BRING A BIT OF A LULL AND DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THEN AS
THE STORM CENTER MOVES ALONG THE CO AND NM BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN...INITIALLY OVER THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MOST MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FEET CONTINE INTO FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW CENTER WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW AND NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS DOMINATING
PRECIPITATIONPRODUCTION AND LOCATION. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BECOME CAUGHT BENEATH A COL BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS DAYS` LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PLAINS AND A CLOSE LOW THAT DROPS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE A BIT OF A
DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIVING SOUTH TO ARIZONA
SAT NIGHT AND BY SUNRISE SUNDAY PRECIP WILL INCREASE OVER SW CO
AND SE UTAH AS THIS UPPER LOW TREKS ACROSS AZ.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP GOING IN THE CO AND UT
MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STORM FILLS AND SLIDES EAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A WARMER AND DRIER TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
ILS CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT ALL TAF SITES. KTEX AND KASE HAVE
A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN STRONGER
SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED.



&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ004-010-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ023-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC


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