Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 261908
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1208 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

W FLOW CONTINUES BUT SNOTELS AND WEBCAMS IMPLY A DECREASING TREND
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS DOWN THE CENTRAL DIVIDE. LATEST HRRR
ALSO SHOWS THIS TREND WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW INTO THE
AFTERNOON . REMAINING WINTER HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE AT NOON AND THIS
LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT IS EASING UP WINDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER BANDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING BEFORE DWINDLING RAPIDLY AROUND NOONTIME.
CURRENT SATELLITE OVER THE ROCKIES INDICATES MANY POCKETS OF
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS BEING FUELED BY THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SPEC HUMIDITIES ARE STILL
QUITE HIGH STILL 3 K/JG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THIS WILL CHANGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECTING WINTER WX ADVISORIES AND THE
ZONE 4 WARNING TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ENDING TIME OF NOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST IMPACT AREA THIS MORNING VAIL PASS DUE TO A HIGH
TRAVEL DAY. DO EXPECT SNOW TO END ALONG I-70 BY NOON TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNEVENTFUL DAY AND GOOD FOR TRAVELING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING SLIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. WITH
LOWER VALLEYS LACKING SNOW COVER...MORNING INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK
...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS
CHALLENGED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA SOMETIME NEXT
WEEK. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED ONCE AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING PACIFIC LOW. THIS COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FOR THAT
POTENTIAL. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE
ABOVE MENTION PACIFIC SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING AS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP ANY POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN -SN WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE HIGHER
PEAKS FROM K3MW TO KMYP INTO THE AFTERNOON...OBSCURING MTNS AT
TIMES. HOWEVER...FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO NEAR 45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. STRONGER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT MTN TOP OVER THE NRN MTNS (K3MW) THROUGH THU
MORNING. AT THE TAF SITES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD



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