Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 222317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
517 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

An upper ridge axis moved to the east, opening the area to
increasing southwest flow aloft. A SW to NE line of jet stream
cirrus will stretch across NE UT and NW CO tonight while the rest
of the area remains clear. No precipitation is expected.

Sunday should be another warm day with clear skies and southwest
breezes. Sunday and Sunday night the broad trough off the west
coast will continue deepening and moving slowly east. This will
gradually turn the flow aloft more southerly. Throughout the day
and Sunday night a speed maxima in the subtropical jet will
gradually stretch northeast from southern CA to central UT with
weak channeled vort maxes providing some uplift. Mid and high
clouds should begin increasing over NE UT after midnight with a
developing line of precipitation over Utah`s Wasatch Front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

On Monday the GFS and NAM show a wave developing in the southern
jetstream which taps subtropical moisture and provides broadening
uplift for clouds and precip. Cloud and precip will spread east
across eastern UT and into western CO Monday afternoon. As this
trough moves east precipitation should spread across the entire
forecast area late Monday night. Have increased the chance of
rain across the board Monday night and Tue.

The trough is projected to move out of the area quickly Tuesday
afternoon. Right now it looks like late Monday night and Tuesday
morning provide the best chance of precipitation across much of
the area. Tuesday night a broad ridge will build over the area
with NW winds aloft and drier conditions.

High pressure will dominate Wednesday through Thursday night.
Friday another shortwave trough will ride over the area affecting
mainly the northern half of the forecast area. Saturday will see
drier conditions under high pressure.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Another quiet TAF period with VFR conditions, typical diurnal wind
patterns, and only a smattering of cirrus.




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