000
FXUS65 KGJT 160851
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
251 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. BULK OF ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ZONES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER WIND SHEER IN PLACE. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD FIRE BY 18Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH NO APPARENT FORCING TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHUT DOWN WITH SUNSET. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN PERHAPS BREAKING INVERSIONS ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE DEEP TROUGH WORKS INTO NEVADA ON FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS REMAINS
QUITE DRY AND INSUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE MIXING TO AROUND 500MB WHERE SW
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 30-35KT RANGE. THIS AGAIN RAISES FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES INTO UTAH GIVING IT A NEGATIVE
TILT. MOISTURE ALSO BEGINS TO INVADE FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY SEE LOCALLY STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER MOISTENS SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH
WORKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BROAD SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKING SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THIS WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVE CONVECTION GOING SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE RIDGING RETURNS AROUND MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE STARTING AROUND 17Z WITH MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FOR AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF KGJT-KGUC. LOCAL -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE
ENDING AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN LATE TODAY AS A STRONGER PACIFIC
TROF WORKS THROUGH NEVADA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
AND STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PRODUCE DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN
COLORADO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE
FUELS ARE DRY. SOME WEAK HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WORKS
THROUGH THE REGION. A COOL DOWN WITH THE TROF SHOULD EASE THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ203-207-290-292-293.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ203-207-290-292.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/JDC
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JOE