Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 131010
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
410 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CONVECTIVELY ORGANIZED LINES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO TREK
ACROSS UTAH AND NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
WELL ORGANIZED LINE MOVE EAST ACROSS UTAH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT... WHICH PRODUCED LIGHTNING NEAR SLC JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST PASSING INTO THE GJT CWA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST THIS MORNING BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF SHOWERS WITH IT. DAYTIME HEATING AND THE INCREASE OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL ALLOW THIS LINE OF SHOWERS TO EXPAND AS IT REACHES
WESTERN COLORADO. IR SATELLITE ALREADY IS SHOWING CLOUD TOPS
INCREASING AND THE LINE EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. MODELS
STILL SHOW LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SFC TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM. THE FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK
TO REACH NORTHEASTERN UTAH AROUND DAYBREAK...THE GRAND VALLEY BY
NOON...AND SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO BY 6PM. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDLEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING FOR
COLD ADVECTIVE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND SNOW TO ACCUMULATE...WITH THE
HEAVIEST OVER NORTH FACING SLOPES AND OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY...BOTH WITH THE FRONT AND AFTER
AS A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH CAA. SNOW LEVEL WHICH
IS CURRENTLY AT 8500 FT WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY TONIGHT.
VERY DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS DROPPING TO
0.15 INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. KEPT SNOW RATIOS AT 10 TO 1 THROUGH
NOON THEN INCREASED RATIO TO 15:1 BEHIND THE FRONT. ADDED ADVISORY
FOR TAVAPUTS PLATEAU WITH CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE HEADING OVERHEAD
MID MORNING WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ABOUNDING AND POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO GENERATE SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.

KEPT VALLEY ZONES OUT OF ADVISORIES FOR NOW BUT DO EXPECT ZONES
1...2...AND 8 TO RECEIVE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW BY TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON REACHING 3 IN ACCUMULATION IN ANY OF THESE
PLACES AFTER THE THE COLD AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED IN BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A CONVECTIVE SHOWER/TSTORM WILL COME THROUGH AND
DUMP 3+ INCHES AT AN ISOLATED AREA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. WILL BE A GOOD NIGHT TO COVER EARLY BLOOMING PLANTS AS
FREEZES ARE IMMINENT ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR CORNER OF SOUTHEAST
UTAH.

ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AND SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. WITH PWATS SO LOW ON MONDAY
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SHALLOW CU TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MON NGT WITH FREEZES A
POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOWER VALLEYS.

DRIER NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE
TUE AS A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TUE EVENING THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH
UT AND INTO EXTREME NW CO. THIS FRONT DRAGS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TUE NGT AND WED MORNING. A SECOND TROUGH IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE IN RIGHT BEHIND THE FIRST AND BRING COLDER AIR AND
PRECIPITATION THAT FOCUSES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THRU THU
AND THU NGT.

FRI AND SAT THE AREA IS PLACE BENEATH A COL CREATED BETWEEN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AN OLD LOW
MOVING INLAND AND OVER AZ AND NM. THE GFS SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
CARRIED INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE AZ/NM LOW AND SPREADING A
SOME SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CO CENTRAL MTS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS AFFECTING
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. THE LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BRIEF AS THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING AT ABOUT 30 MPH. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER EASTERN UT BY 13Z AND CONTINUE
EAST...REACHING KCNY ABOUT 1330Z...KGJT AND KRIL ABOUT 15Z TO
16Z...AND KEGE...KMTJ...KTEX...AND KASE BY 18Z. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LINE OF STORMS...WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRONGER SHOWERS.

A LATE WINTER STORM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KCAG...KHDN...AND KTEX. MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
PASSES WILL BE OBSCURED. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER
ABOUT 06Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ012-018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ004-009-
      010-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      COZ003.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



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