Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FGUS75 KGJT 202030
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-281915-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
129 PM MST THU FEB 20 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 1...

THIS 2014 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER
COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER
BASINS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2014 FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT IS HIGHER
THAN USUAL FOR THE YAMPA...LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER GREEN...UPPER
COLORADO...EAGLE...ROARING FORK...AND GUNNISON RIVER BASINS. FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THE DUCHESNE...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...AND SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO RIVER BASINS ARE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

THE FEBRUARY FIRST VOLUME FORECASTS FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JULY 2014
RUNOFF PERIOD ARE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND ALSO THE UPPER GREEN RIVER
BASIN. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH BASINS ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE ARE EARLY ESTIMATES AND IT IS
VERY EARLY IN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON. SPRING TEMPERATURES
AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE
OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK CAN ACCUMULATE
IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH APRIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SNOW MELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF
VOLUME AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT.


OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------

THE 2014 WATER YEAR STARTED WITH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BASINS
RECEIVING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR OCTOBER. BY NOVEMBER THE
NORTHERN BASINS RECEIVED LESS PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL AND THE
SOUTHERN BASINS HAD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH. THIS
TREND DID NOT LAST WITH THE SOUTHERN BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH RECEIVED MUCH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THE REST
OF THE YEAR THROUGH MID FEBRUARY. THE NORTHERN BASINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO IN EARLY DECEMBER RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THE
PATTERN REMAINED ON THE DRY SIDE EARLY JANUARY UNTIL THE LAST FEW
DAYS WHEN A STORM VERY WET SYSTEM MOVED OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.

OVER ALL SO FAR FOR THE WATER YEAR 2014 THE NORTHERN CENTRAL BASINS
OF WESTERN COLORADO ARE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK. THE SOUTHERN BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH ARE BELOW NORMAL.

BASIN SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF MEDIAN...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2013 TO FEBRUARY 19 2014:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
YAMPA/WHITE                121
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS       138
ROARING FORK               128
GUNNISON                   112
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL          91
SAN JUAN                    81
ANIMAS                      98

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
GREEN                      135
DUCHESNE                    89
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH           75
----------------------------------


RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF JANUARY 31:

                          EOM      % OF     % OF      JAN 31        USABLE
                          STORAGE  AVERAGE  CAPACITY  AVG STORAGE   CAPACITY
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|    350.1|     99|     71  ||      352.2|     490.3|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|      8.7|    110|     96  ||        8.0|       9.1|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|     75.9|    119|     78  ||       63.8|      96.9|
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|     43.7|     98|     66  ||       44.6|      66.0|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |    239.7|    107|     94  ||      223.2|     254.0|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |     82.3|    102|     56  ||       81.1|     146.9|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|  -9999.0|    -99|    -99  ||       31.9|      43.0|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|     79.8|    110|     78  ||       72.4|     102.0|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|     15.7|    125|     48  ||       12.6|      32.9|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |     71.4|    107|     67  ||       66.9|     106.2|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |    388.8|     76|     47  ||      514.6|     829.5|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|    107.9|     97|     92  ||      111.4|     117.0|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|     15.0|     98|     85  ||       15.3|      17.5|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|      0.5|     13|      3  ||        4.2|      16.7|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|     73.8|    107|     89  ||       69.2|      83.0|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |    184.5|     68|     48  ||      270.9|     381.1|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|     95.8|    151|     76  ||       63.5|     125.4|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|    963.2|     74|     57  ||     1310.4|    1696.0|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |     17.0|     82|     43  ||       20.9|      39.8|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|   9827.7|     57|     40  ||    17338.2|   24322.0|


----------------------------------------------------

CURRENT HYDROLOGIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND IN THE
FORECAST VOLUMES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BASINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN SINCE THE OFFICIAL
FORECASTS WERE ISSUED.

SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2014 FOR THE
PERIOD APRIL TO JULY 2014 UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED


STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
DEVELOPED:                    FEB 1 2014

YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV            APR-JUL     28   122     41   19.9     23
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS               APR-JUL    330   127    420    240    260
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                      APR-JUL    410   128    500    300    320
ELKHEAD CK
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR     APR-JUL     90   123    114     62     73
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                     APR-JUL   1120   120   1420    770    935
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                      APR-JUL    181   116    235    131    156
  SAVERY, NR                      APR-JUL    360   104    515    245    345
  LILY, NR                        APR-JUL    375   109    535    245    345
YAMPA RIVER
  DEERLODGE PARK                  APR-JUL   1480   119   1890   1010   1240
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                      APR-JUL    275    98    365    205    280
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    290   104    400    215    280

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR         APR-JUL    260   118    365    185    220
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR       APR-JUL     50   106     90     31     47
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                     APR-JUL     25   129     31   18.0   19.4
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N  APR-JUL    115   120    160     80     96
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                      APR-JUL    210   129    275    150    163
  GREEN MTN RES                   APR-JUL    340   124    460    235    275
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESERVOIR      APR-JUL     70   130     92     43     54
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                   APR-JUL   1030   120   1470    740    860
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                     APR-JUL    375   112    550    250    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                     APR-JUL   1650   118   2260   1180   1400
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR           APR-JUL    160   115    215    113    139
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                APR-JUL    735   107   1000    530    690
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO           APR-JUL   2400   114   3300   1750   2110
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL   2690   114   3750   1900   2360
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL    115    93    177     65    124

GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                 APR-JUL    112   113    146     77     99
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    177   114    230    115    155
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    195   107    260    135    182
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                    APR-JUL    415   112    570    275    370
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                        APR-JUL     76   103    110     46     74
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                        APR-JUL    136   111    185     96    123
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                   APR-JUL    755   112   1070    500    675
  MORROW POINT RES                APR-JUL    825   111   1140    570    740
  CRYSTAL RES                     APR-JUL    925   111   1240    650    835
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         MAR-JUN    100   104    136     70     96
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUL    102   105    140     70     97
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                    APR-JUL    300   102    420    210    295
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                       APR-JUL   15.0    89     22   10.0   16.8
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                     APR-JUL     97    96    138     68    101
  COLONA                          APR-JUL    133    97    193     89    137
  DELTA                           APR-JUL    110    97    169     68    113
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR              APR-JUL   1550   105   2270   1000   1480

DOLORES BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                         APR-JUL    235    96    330    160    245
  MCPHEE RES                      APR-JUL    280    95    390    177    295
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                 APR-JUL    130   102    177     85    128
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL    540    96    740    320    565

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL   4800   108   6950   3450   4440

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                  APR-JUL    197    92    265    131    215
  CARRACAS, NR                    APR-JUL    320    84    460    215    380
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM  APR-JUL     47    87     65     34     54
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO    APR-JUL     55    85     78     37     65
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                     APR-JUL    210   100    270    137    210
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR     APR-JUL    205   106    250    137    194
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR       APR-JUL    660    90    950    410    735
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR          APR-JUL     50    91     70     40     55
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                         APR-JUL    415   100    530    305    415
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                      APR-JUL   1020    93   1430    660   1100
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                        APR-JUL   18.0    78     27   11.0     23
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                       APR-JUL   1000    91   1420    635   1100
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                      APR-JUL     22    71     34   10.0     31

EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN

GREEN RIVER
  FLAMING GORGE RES, FLAMING GOR  APR-JUL    815    83   1420    540    980
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV  APR-JUL   16.0    76     26   11.2     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                      APR-JUL     37    74     62     23     50
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                  APR-JUL     40    74     68     26     54
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                    APR-JUL    230    60    440    163    385

LAKE POWELL
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT   APR-JUL   7250   101  10300   4750   7160

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

OFFICIAL VOLUME FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED AT THE BEGINNING OF MARCH.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD
FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF EITHER ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY THE ENSO IS
NEUTRAL. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO KNOWN CORRELATION BETWEEN A NEUTRAL
PATTERN AND WEATHER TRENDS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS EARLY IN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.

CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$

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