Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FGUS75 KGJT 032116
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-052130-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
216 PM MST THU MAR 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 2...

THIS IS THE SECOND ISSUANCE OF THE 2016 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK FOR
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
YAMPA/WHITE... UPPER COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...
DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2016 FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT IS NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF THE WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH BASINS
AT THIS TIME. AS OF MARCH 1 NO RIVER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THIS
REGION ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND ONLY A FEW
OF THESE POINTS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ABOVE BANKFULL AT THE 10%
EXCEEDENCE LEVEL.

THE CURRENT VOLUME FORECASTS FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JULY TIME
PERIOD FOR THE UPPER GREEN...DUCHESNE AND GUNNISON BASINS ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE DOLORES RIVER BASIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD
HAS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE VOLUME FORECAST WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASINS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEE NEAR NORMAL VOLUME
FLOWS. THE OFFICIAL MONTHLY VOLUME FORECASTS AS OF MARCH 1 IS IN A
TABLE BELOW.

SPRING TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL
YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH APRIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE SNOWMELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND
INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING.

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------

FEBRUARY BASIN AVERAGED PRECIPITATION WAS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH WITH VALUES BETWEEN 40
AND 55 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE UPPER GREEN BASIN WAS THE OUTLIER
AT 79 PERCENT OF AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION FOR THE
WATER YEAR BEGINNING IN OCTOBER IS AVERAGED FROM 90 PERCENT IN THE
YAMPA/WHITE BASIN TO 125 PERCENT OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH.

BASIN CONDITIONS (% OF AVERAGE) AS OF MARCH 1:

 SUBBASIN                  FEB    OCT-FEB
                          PRECIP  PRECIP
----------------------    ------  -------
   UPPER COLORADO            55      95
   GUNNISON                  45     100
   DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL        40     115
   SAN JUAN                  40     110
   YAMPA/WHITE               55      90
   UPPER GREEN               79      89
   DUCHESNE                  47      82
   SOUTHEAST UTAH            41     125

FEBRUARY CONTINUED TO PROVE TO BE THE DRY PERIOD DURING THIS
EL-NINO EPISODE AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK WAS FORCED WELL NORTHWARD
BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
THE FEW STORMS THAT DID SURVIVE THE TREK OVER THE RIDGE FAVORED
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. THE SOUTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS IN TURN DROPPED SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENTAGE POINTS
BETWEEN THE END OF JANUARY TO THE END OF FEBRUARY FOR AVERAGE
WATER YEAR PRECIPITATION.

MARCH 1ST BASIN AVERAGED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS NEAR NORMAL IN
COLORADO WHERE IT RANGES FROM 90% OF MEDIAN IN THE GUNNISON BASIN TO
100% OF MEDIAN IN THE UPPER COLORADO AND SAN JUAN BASINS. IN
COLORADO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DECREASES IN PERCENT MEDIAN SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST OCCURRED IN THE DOLORES AND
SAN JUAN BASINS WHERE LACK OF PRECIPITATION COMBINED WITH LOW
ELEVATION SNOW MELT. IN UTAH BASIN AVERAGED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AT 122% OF MEDIAN
AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE DUCHESNE BASIN AT 82% OF MEDIAN.

BASIN SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF MEDIAN...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2015 TO MARCH 1 2016:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
YAMPA/WHITE                 95
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS       100
GUNNISON                    90
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL          95
SAN JUAN                   100
ROARING FORK                98
ANIMAS                      89


IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
GREEN                       96
DUCHESNE                    82
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH          122
----------------------------------

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS ISSUED MARCH 1.

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2016-03-01   2000   2200   2700   3500   4500
ELK - MILNER, NR            5718 2016-03-01   2000   2500   3000   3600   5000
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21241 2016-03-01   5000   6000   7000   9000  11000
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR     -999 2016-03-01   1800   2000   3000   4000   5000
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK     20685 2016-03-01   6500   8500  10000  11500  15500
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8597 2016-03-01   1900   2200   2400   2900   3600
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       1850 2016-03-01    150    200    300    400    550
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1550 2016-03-01    400    500    600    700    900
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    440 2016-03-01     40     50     80     90    130
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6500 2016-03-01   1850   1900   2700   3600   5300
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2016-03-01   3300   4000   6000   8000  14000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3100 2016-03-01   1000   1250   1600   1850   2400
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17000 2016-03-01   3100   3500   4500   5900   7200
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2016-03-01   7300   8600  12200  16000  25000
EAST - ALMONT               3170 2016-03-01    950   1100   1300   1700   2000
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  13100 2016-03-01   1900   2200   2800   3200   3900
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1320 2016-03-01     90    140    180    240    320
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19470 2016-03-01   8070   8070   8070   8200   8500
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1750 2016-03-01    690    810    900   1000   1200
DOLORES - DOLORES           7130 2016-03-01   2000   2300   2600   3000   3400
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   3190 2016-03-01    920   1050   1140   1260   1630
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46000 2016-03-01  13500  15000  19000  24000  34000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5000 2016-03-01   1500   1700   1900   2300   2700
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10200 2016-03-01   2800   3100   3600   4300   4700
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         9110 2016-03-01   2900   3200   3700   4500   5000
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         2970 2016-03-01    100    170    270    340    540

RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF FEBRUARY 31:
                            C U R R E N T   Y R     1981-2010
                          EOM      % OF     % OF    FEB 29        USABLE
                          STORAGE  AVERAGE  CAPACITYAVG STORAGE   CAPACITY
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|    406.8|    123|     83||  332.0|     490.3|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|      8.7|    105|     95||    8.2|       9.1|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|     76.7|    123|     79||   62.4|      96.9|
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|     42.0|     95|     64||   44.2|      66.0|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |    236.6|    108|     93||  219.3|     254.0|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |     65.8|     90|     45||   73.5|     146.9|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|  -9999.0|    135|    -99||   30.7|      43.0|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|     68.7|    101|     67||   67.9|     102.0|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|     12.9|     97|     39||   13.2|      32.9|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |     68.4|    104|     64||   65.7|     106.2|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |    558.5|    116|     67||  482.2|     829.5|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|    108.1|     97|     92||  111.1|     117.0|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|     16.8|    107|     96||   15.8|      17.5|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|      1.4|     29|      8||    4.7|      16.7|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|     65.4|     94|     79||   69.4|      83.0|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |    249.5|     92|     65||  272.3|     381.1|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|     86.4|    136|     69||   63.5|     125.4|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|   1404.7|    109|     83|| 1292.2|    1696.0|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |     21.5|    103|     54||   21.0|      39.8|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|  11224.5|     66|     46||17054.6|   24322.0|


STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
DEVELOPED:                    MAR 1 2016
YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV     APR-JUL     21    91     30     23   18.5   16.0     23
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS        APR-JUL    240    92    330    290    215    175    260
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR               APR-JUL    290    91    380    320    255    210    320
ELKHEAD CK
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN  APR-JUL     55    75     83     65     49     35     73
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR              APR-JUL    770    82   1050    905    630    520    935
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR               APR-JUL    120    77    165    133     95     76    156
  DIXON, NR                APR-JUL    255    74    370    285    200    149    345
  LILY, NR                 APR-JUL    265    77    390    310    200    150    345
YAMPA RIVER
  DEERLODGE PARK           APR-JUL   1030    83   1370   1120    800    640   1240
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR               APR-JUL    245    88    355    270    220    191    280
  WATSON, NR               APR-JUL    260    93    395    285    235    200    280

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR  APR-JUL    175    80    240    195    145    115    220
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY,   APR-JUL     43    91     67     48     35     25     47
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK              APR-JUL   18.0    93     22     21   16.5   14.5   19.4
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARS  APR-JUL     85    89    115     92     73     60     96
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES               APR-JUL    145    89    190    162    132    105    163
  GREEN MTN RES            APR-JUL    245    89    325    260    210    170    275
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESERV  APR-JUL     48    89     70     57     35     29     54
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR            APR-JUL    740    86   1060    790    665    530    860
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO              APR-JUL    285    85    450    350    230    215    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR              APR-JUL   1200    86   1760   1330   1060    880   1400
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR    APR-JUL    125    90    185    145    100     90    139
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS         APR-JUL    590    86    830    620    520    440    690
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO    APR-JUL   1810    86   2650   2050   1600   1350   2110
  CAMEO, NR                APR-JUL   1990    84   2950   2300   1790   1500   2360
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                APR-JUL    105    85    160    118     80     55    124

GUNNISON BASIN
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES          APR-JUL     83    84    115     95     74     65     99
  ALMONT                   APR-JUL    127    82    175    145    114    100    155
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                   APR-JUL    135    74    195    150    125    104    182
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR             APR-JUL    280    76    410    300    240    200    370
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                 APR-JUL     65    88    100     77     55     43     74
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                 APR-JUL    127   103    175    142    106     90    123
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES            APR-JUL    580    86    840    620    510    450    675
  MORROW POINT RES         APR-JUL    630    85    890    670    560    500    740
  CRYSTAL RES              APR-JUL    710    85    970    750    640    580    835
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR  MAR-JUN     84    88    124     92     75     60     96
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR  APR-JUL     83    86    123     91     74     59     97
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR             APR-JUL    245    83    370    275    220    195    295
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                APR-JUL   13.5    80     20     16   12.0    8.0   16.8
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES              APR-JUL     97    96    135    106     88     75    101
  COLONA                   APR-JUL    130    95    200    150    117     95    137
  DELTA                    APR-JUL    106    94    180    121     93     70    113
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR       APR-JUL   1280    86   2000   1500   1160   1000   1480

DOLORES BASIN
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                  APR-JUL    250   102    330    275    220    169    245
  MCPHEE RES               APR-JUL    295   100    425    325    260    190    295
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR          APR-JUL    135   105    188    152    120     95    128
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                APR-JUL    570   101    880    650    500    360    565

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                APR-JUL   3870    87   5600   4200   3370   2800   4440

SAN JUAN BASIN
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS           APR-JUL    200    93    270    220    176    135    215
  CARRACAS, NR             APR-JUL    335    88    455    375    280    220    380
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLA  APR-JUL     54   100     70     62     45     36     54
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM  APR-JUL     62    95     80     69     50     42     65
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR              APR-JUL    200    95    270    220    160    125    210
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD  APR-JUL    190    98    245    210    158    131    194
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA,   APR-JUL    650    88    910    710    515    380    735
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR   APR-JUL     50    91     68     55     40     30     55
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                  APR-JUL    390    94    530    420    350    270    415
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON               APR-JUL    990    90   1400   1100    815    600   1100
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                 APR-JUL     22    96     30     26   19.0   15.0     23
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                APR-JUL    980    89   1380   1030    800    575   1100
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR               APR-JUL     33   106     47     38     28     20     31

LAKE POWELL
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN D  APR-JUL   5700    80   8000   6500   4650   3800   7160

50% MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
%AVG  MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
10% VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
30% VOLUME THAT HAS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
90% VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
70% VOLUME THAT HAS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK
---------------

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD
OF MARCH THROUGH MAY 2016 INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND MAINLY EQUAL CHANCES OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY ENSO IS STILL IN A MODERATE EL NINO
PHASE. FORECASTS SUGGEST A SLOW WEAKENING OF THIS EL NINO THROUGH
THE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A RETURN TO
A WETTER PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH GIVING
SOME CREDENCE TO THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND CONDITIONS COULD
CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.

CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.


$$



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