Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FGUS75 KGJT 061950
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-281915-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1249 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 2...

THIS 2014 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER
COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER
BASINS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2014 FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT IS HIGH FOR
THE YAMPA...LITTLE SNAKE...UPPER GREEN...UPPER
COLORADO...EAGLE...ROARING FORK...AND GUNNISON RIVER BASINS.

THE YAMPA RIVER...EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE PEAK FLOWS ALONG THE WHOLE
RIVER FROM HEAD WATERS TO THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE GREEN RIVER.
TRIBUTARIES LIKE THE ELK RIVER ARE ALSO FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE
AVERAGE PEAK FLOW AND A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

UPPER COLORADO AND GUNNISON RIVERS...THE 10 PERCENT EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITY FOR PEAK FLOW IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE EAGLE AND
COLORADO RIVERS FROM EAGLE...NEAR DOTSERO THROUGH GRAND JUNCTION. ON
THE UPPER PART OF THE GUNNISON BASIN INCLUDING THE EAST AND TAYLOR
RIVERS EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE PEAK FLOWS PRODUCING THE ELEVATED FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE DUCHESNE...SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO BASINS ARE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. NEAR AVERAGE
PEAK FLOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DOLORES RIVER WITH BELOW AVERAGE
PEAKS FORECAST FOR THE SAN JUAN AND DUCHESNE RIVERS.

THE MARCH FIRST VOLUME FORECASTS FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JULY 2014
RUNOFF PERIOD ARE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND ALSO THE UPPER GREEN RIVER
BASIN. THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH BASINS ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE ARE EARLY ESTIMATES AND IT IS
EARLY IN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON. SPRING TEMPERATURES AFFECT
THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE OF
PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK CAN ACCUMULATE IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH APRIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SNOW MELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF
VOLUME AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT.


OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------

THE 2014 WATER YEAR STARTED WITH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BASINS
RECEIVING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR OCTOBER. BY NOVEMBER THE
NORTHERN BASINS RECEIVED LESS PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL AND THE
SOUTHERN BASINS HAD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH. THIS
TREND DID NOT LAST WITH THE SOUTHERN BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH RECEIVED MUCH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THE REST
OF THE YEAR THROUGH MID FEBRUARY. THE NORTHERN BASINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO IN EARLY DECEMBER RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THE
PATTERN REMAINED ON THE DRY SIDE EARLY JANUARY UNTIL THE LAST FEW
DAYS WHEN A STORM VERY WET SYSTEM MOVED OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.

OVER ALL SO FAR FOR THE WATER YEAR 2014 THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO ARE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN NOW HAS A
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWPACK. THE SOUTHERN BASINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH ARE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT INCREASED 16 PERCENT OVER THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN SINCE FEBRUARY 20. SNOWPACK OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO ALSO
INCREASE BUT MUCH LESS RAPIDLY AND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
SEASON. ENOUGH SNOW FELL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN COLORADO TO KEEP VALUES CONSISTENT AND ABOVE AVERAGE SINCE
THE LAST ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT.

BASIN SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF MEDIAN...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2013 TO MARCH 5 2014:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
YAMPA/WHITE                122
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS       138
ROARING FORK               127
GUNNISON                   114
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL          95
SAN JUAN                    86
ANIMAS                     104

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
GREEN                      151
DUCHESNE                    90
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH           79
----------------------------------

RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF FEBRUARY 28:
                            C U R R E N T   Y R      1981-2010
                          EOM      % OF     % OF     FEB 28        USABLE
                          STORAGE  AVERAGE  CAPACITY AVG STORAGE   CAPACITY
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|    323.9|     98|     66|||      332.0|     490.3|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|      9.1|    111|    100|||        8.2|       9.1|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|     76.5|    123|     79|||       62.4|      96.9|
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|     43.6|     98|     66|||       44.2|      66.0|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |    237.2|    108|     93|||      219.3|     254.0|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |     72.4|     98|     49|||       73.5|     146.9|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|  -9999.0|    -99|    -99|||       30.7|      43.0|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|     74.5|    110|     73|||       67.9|     102.0|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|     16.5|    125|     50|||       13.2|      32.9|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |     71.6|    109|     67|||       65.7|     106.2|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |    398.3|     83|     48|||      482.2|     829.5|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|    107.7|     97|     92|||      111.1|     117.0|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|     14.3|     91|     81|||       15.8|      17.5|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|      0.7|     15|      4|||        4.7|      16.7|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|     75.5|    109|     91|||       69.4|      83.0|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |    187.6|     69|     49|||      272.3|     381.1|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|     97.8|    154|     78|||       63.5|     125.4|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|    966.0|     75|     57|||     1292.2|    1696.0|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |     17.2|     82|     43|||       21.0|      39.8|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|   9563.1|     56|     39|||    17054.6|   24322.0|

----------------------------------------------------

CURRENT HYDROLOGIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND IN THE
FORECAST VOLUMES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BASINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN SINCE THE LAST OFFICIAL
FORECASTS WERE ISSUED.

SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF MARCH 1 2014 FOR THE
PERIOD APRIL TO JULY 2014 UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED


STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
DEVELOPED:                    MAR 1 2014

YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV            APR-JUL     28   122     42     21     23
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS               APR-JUL    360   138    465    275    260
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                      APR-JUL    440   138    540    340    320
ELKHEAD CK
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR     APR-JUL     95   130    126     70     73
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                     APR-JUL   1200   128   1480    850    935
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                      APR-JUL    196   126    250    147    156
  SAVERY, NR                      APR-JUL    390   113    540    280    345
  LILY, NR                        APR-JUL    415   120    565    280    345
YAMPA RIVER
  DEERLODGE PARK                  APR-JUL   1600   129   2030   1120   1240
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                      APR-JUL    275    98    365    205    280
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    290   104    400    215    280

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR         APR-JUL    310   141    395    240    220
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR       APR-JUL     59   126     88     34     47
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                     APR-JUL     28   144     34     21   19.4
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N  APR-JUL    135   141    175    105     96
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                      APR-JUL    245   150    300    195    163
  GREEN MTN RES                   APR-JUL    395   144    500    305    275
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESERVOIR      APR-JUL     88   163    113     60     54
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                   APR-JUL   1250   145   1600    950    860
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                     APR-JUL    415   124    560    305    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                     APR-JUL   1920   137   2500   1500   1400
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR           APR-JUL    165   119    220    120    139
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                APR-JUL    785   114   1030    570    690
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO           APR-JUL   2710   128   3550   2150   2110
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL   2950   125   3950   2300   2360
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL    115    93    175     65    124

GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                 APR-JUL    126   127    156     99     99
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    200   129    255    155    155
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    215   118    275    165    182
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                    APR-JUL    465   126    615    335    370
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                        APR-JUL     92   124    135     67     74
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                        APR-JUL    145   118    186    115    123
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                   APR-JUL    850   126   1140    660    675
  MORROW POINT RES                APR-JUL    930   126   1220    740    740
  CRYSTAL RES                     APR-JUL   1050   126   1340    860    835
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         MAR-JUN    105   109    130     80     96
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUL    106   109    131     81     97
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                    APR-JUL    310   105    420    260    295
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                       APR-JUL   16.0    95     22   11.0   16.8
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                     APR-JUL     97    96    133     76    101
  COLONA                          APR-JUL    129    94    195    100    137
  DELTA                           APR-JUL    105    93    170     78    113
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR              APR-JUL   1640   111   2300   1200   1480

DOLORES BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                         APR-JUL    245   100    325    170    245
  MCPHEE RES                      APR-JUL    280    95    385    190    295
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                 APR-JUL    135   105    185    100    128
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL    520    92    740    365    565

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL   5180   117   7200   4050   4440

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                  APR-JUL    182    85    235    130    215
  CARRACAS, NR                    APR-JUL    300    79    400    215    380
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM  APR-JUL     42    78     58     32     54
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO    APR-JUL     48    74     65     33     65
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                     APR-JUL    190    90    265    133    210
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR     APR-JUL    205   106    265    155    194
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR       APR-JUL    630    86    885    420    735
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR          APR-JUL     55   100     70     40     55
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                         APR-JUL    440   106    570    330    415
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                      APR-JUL   1000    91   1400    680   1100
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                        APR-JUL   16.5    72     23   10.5     23
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                       APR-JUL    980    89   1400    620   1100
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                      APR-JUL     20    65     30   11.0     31

EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN

GREEN RIVER
  FLAMING GORGE RES, FLAMING GOR  APR-JUL   1430   146   1940   1030    980
WHITE RIVER
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    290   104    430    215    280
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV  APR-JUL   14.0    67     23    7.5     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                      APR-JUL     33    66     53   17.5     50
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                  APR-JUL     36    67     57     22     54
UINTA RIVER
  NEOLA, NR                       APR-JUL     65    88     86     38     74

DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                    APR-JUL    290    75    415    177    385

LAKE POWELL
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT   APR-JUL   8300   116  11100   6000   7160

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

OFFICIAL VOLUME FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED AT THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD
FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF EITHER ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY THE ENSO IS NEUTRAL AND ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEUTRAL THROUGH SPRING. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO KNOWN
CORRELATION BETWEEN A NEUTRAL PATTERN AND WEATHER TRENDS OVER
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS EARLY IN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.

CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$

AS






































USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.