Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FGUS75 KGJT 192232
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COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-281915-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
330 PM MST THU FEB 19 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 1...

THIS 2015 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER
COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER
BASINS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2015 FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT IS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UPPER COLORADO...EAGLE AND UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN IN UTAH AND COLORADO. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS MUCH LOWER
THAN USUAL FOR THE YAMPA...LITTLE SNAKE...ROARING FORK...GUNNISON...
DUCHESNE RIVER BASINS...SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN...DOLORES RIVER BASINS.

VOLUME FORECAST FOR THE 2015 APRIL THROUGH JULY PERIOD IS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UPPER GREEN...UPPER COLORADO AND EAGLE
RIVER BASINS. THE REST OF THE BASINS IN WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH HAVE A BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VOLUME FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL
MONTHLY VOLUME FORECAST AS OF FEBRUARY 1 IS IN A TABLE BELOW.
GUIDANCE SINCE THE FEBRUARY 1 FORECAST FROM THE RAW MODELS SHOWS
FORECAST VOLUMES DECREASING FOR MOST BASINS EXCEPT THE UPPER
COLORADO BASIN.

SPRING TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL
YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
APRIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SNOW MELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND INCREASE THE
FLOOD THREAT.


OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------

PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS SEASON HAS BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER
MOST OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.

BASIN AVERAGED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES FOR WESTERN COLORADO
RANGE FROM 53 TO 93 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND FOR EASTERN UTAH 60 TO 67
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER ABOVE
FLAMING GORGE RESERVOIR IS 107 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

THE UPPER COLORADO AND EAGLE RIVERS...THE BEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR WESTERN COLORADO WERE IN THE UPPER COLORADO AND
EAGLE RIVER BASINS AND MAINLY IN THE FAR UPPER PART OF THE BASINS.
FARTHER WEST IN EACH OF THESE BASINS SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

JANUARY PRECIPITATION WAS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE BASINS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE EXCEPTION
WAS OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO WHERE
PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR JANUARY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT FELL DID NOT IMPROVE THE SNOWPACK IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE FIRST PART OF FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN DRY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR ALL THE WESTERN SLOPE AND EASTERN UTAH BASINS.
ALSO SNOWPACK PERCENT OF NORMAL VALUES CONTINUED TO DROP THROUGH
FEBRUARY FOR THIS REGION.

WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO HELP REDUCE THE
SNOWPACK AT LOWER AND MIDDLE SLOPE LEVELS

BASIN SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF MEDIAN...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2014 TO FEBRUARY 19 2015:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
YAMPA/WHITE                 78
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS        93
ROARING FORK                79
GUNNISON                    71
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL          63
SAN JUAN                    54
ANIMAS                      59

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
GREEN                      107
DUCHESNE                    65
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH           67
----------------------------------


MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED STARTING IN MARCH.


----------------------------------------------------


RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF JANUARY 31:
                            C U R R E N T   Y R     1981-2010
                          EOM      % OF     % OF    JAN 31        USABLE
                          STORAGE  AVERAGE  CAPACITYAVG STORAGE   CAPACITY
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|    496.9|    141|    101||  352.2| 490.3|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|      8.9|    112|     98||8.0|   9.1|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|     78.5|    123|     81||   63.8|  96.9|
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|     45.6|    102|     69||   44.6|  66.0|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |    250.1|    112|     98||  223.2| 254.0|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |     75.0|     93|     51||   81.1| 146.9|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|  -9999.0|    -99|    -99||   31.9|  43.0|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|     81.5|    113|     80||   72.4| 102.0|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|     14.5|    115|     44||   12.6|  32.9|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |     78.9|    118|     74||   66.9| 106.2|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |    546.5|    106|     66||  514.6| 829.5|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|    110.4|     99|     94||  111.4| 117.0|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|     14.9|     97|     85||   15.3|  17.5|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|      0.7|     18|      4||4.2|  16.7|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|     77.0|    111|     93||   69.2|  83.0|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |    183.6|     68|     48||  270.9| 381.1|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|     97.2|    153|     78||   63.5| 125.4|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|   1090.7|     83|     64|| 1310.4|1696.0|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |     21.8|    104|     55||   20.9|  39.8|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|  11145.9|     64|     46||17338.2|   24322.0|



----------------------------------------------------


SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2015 FOR THE
PERIOD APRIL TO JULY 2014 UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED


STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
DEVELOPED:                    FEB 1 2015

YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV            APR-JUL     23   100     31   16.7     23
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS               APR-JUL    230    88    315    150    260
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                      APR-JUL    280    88    370    200    320
ELKHEAD CK
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR     APR-JUL     49    67     67     23     73
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                     APR-JUL    740    79   1000    480    935
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                      APR-JUL    115    74    162     79    156
  DIXON, NR                       APR-JUL    205    59    330    128    345
  LILY, NR                        APR-JUL    210    61    340    122    345
YAMPA RIVER
  DEERLODGE PARK                  APR-JUL    945    76   1300    605   1240
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                      APR-JUL    240    86    325    180    280
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    250    89    350    180    280

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR         APR-JUL    215    98    315    160    220
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR       APR-JUL     42    89     77     25     47
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                     APR-JUL   19.0    98     26   14.0   19.4
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N  APR-JUL     95    99    135     70     96
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                      APR-JUL    183   112    250    140    163
  GREEN MTN RES                   APR-JUL    300   109    415    225    275
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESERVOIR      APR-JUL     48    89     70     26     54
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                   APR-JUL    850    99   1250    630    860
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                     APR-JUL    320    96    475    245    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                     APR-JUL   1370    98   1930   1000   1400
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR           APR-JUL    130    94    187     98    139
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                APR-JUL    625    91    890    465    690
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO           APR-JUL   2000    95   2800   1470   2110
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL   2150    91   3100   1600   2360
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL     67    54    125     47    124

GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                 APR-JUL     93    94    125     70     99
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    145    94    200     98    155
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    140    77    205     95    182
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                    APR-JUL    310    84    440    220    370
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                        APR-JUL     74   100    105     47     74
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                        APR-JUL    123   100    160     88    123
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                   APR-JUL    620    92    900    420    675
  MORROW POINT RES                APR-JUL    675    91    955    475    740
  CRYSTAL RES                     APR-JUL    755    90   1040    555    835
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         MAR-JUN     63    66    105     52     96
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUL     64    66    106     53     97
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                    APR-JUL    215    73    320    160    295
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                       APR-JUL    9.5    57   16.2    5.0   16.8
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                     APR-JUL     91    90    129     65    101
  COLONA                          APR-JUL    118    86    186     85    137
  DELTA                           APR-JUL     90    80    165     60    113
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR              APR-JUL   1220    82   1830    850   1480

DOLORES BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                         APR-JUL    185    76    260    120    245
  MCPHEE RES                      APR-JUL    210    71    310    120    295
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                 APR-JUL    110    86    150     80    128
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL    380    67    580    250    565

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL   3700    83   5600   2650   4440

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                  APR-JUL    120    56    190     73    215
  CARRACAS, NR                    APR-JUL    196    52    330    125    380
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM  APR-JUL     32    59     50   18.0     54
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO    APR-JUL     36    55     58     22     65
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                     APR-JUL    130    62    200     85    210
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR     APR-JUL    145    75    210     95    194
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR       APR-JUL    400    54    660    240    735
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR          APR-JUL     39    71     60     22     55
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                         APR-JUL    315    76    425    200    415
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                      APR-JUL    640    58   1050    350   1100
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                        APR-JUL   15.0    65     23    9.0     23
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                       APR-JUL    610    55   1000    380   1100
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                      APR-JUL   19.0    61     30   10.0     31

EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
GREEN RIVER
  FLAMING GORGE RES, FLAMING GOR  APR-JUL    875    89   1520    600    980
WHITE RIVER
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    250    89    350    180    280
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV  APR-JUL   12.8    61     22    6.5     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                      APR-JUL     30    60     56   16.2     50
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                  APR-JUL     36    67     61     23     54
UINTA RIVER
  NEOLA, NR                       APR-JUL     55    74     83     32     74
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                    APR-JUL    230    60    430    150    385


LAKE POWELL
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT   APR-JUL   5200    73   8350   3400   7160

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

OFFICIAL VOLUME FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED AT THE BEGINNING OF MARCH.


CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD
FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND EQUAL CHANGES OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ESPECAILLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BASINS. CURRENTLY THE ENSO
IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAK EL NINO AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY SPRING AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NEUTRAL.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND CONDITIONS COULD
CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.

CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$

AS



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