Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 151226
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0526 MST Monday, December 15, 2014

This forecast is for Monday, December 15, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 38.7 F/3.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 277 ft/min (1.4 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8969 ft MSL (4130 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 39.0 F/4.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1315 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5016 ft MSL (176 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 12/16...... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:26:09 / 16:52:40 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 26 min 31 sec (566 min 31 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:09:27 MST... 27.66 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 12/15/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 4944 ft MSL (105 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 5311 ft MSL (472 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 9595 ft MSL (4756 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 9276 ft MSL (4436 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +12.3
K index......................... -12.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -60.5 -76.9   260   42   22   5.5   3.0  100.6 213.2    55.0      M    M
 45000  -52.1 -61.8   280   36   18   5.7   3.1   90.1 194.1    52.5      M    M
 40000  -48.7 -55.7   280   65   34   0.5   0.3   72.2 162.0    44.4      M    M
 38000  -43.9 -47.0   280   64   33   6.6   3.6   69.4 156.9    43.9      M    M
 36000  -44.5 -48.1   285   71   36 -13.0  -7.2   59.8 139.7    38.4      M    M
 34000  -49.9 -57.8   285   78   40  -9.4  -5.2   43.8 110.8    28.1      M    M
 32000  -48.9 -56.0   290   75   38   3.1   1.7   36.9  98.5    23.9      M    M
 30000  -46.0 -50.8   290   85   44   6.5   3.6   32.9  91.3    21.6      M    M
 29000  -43.9 -47.0   295   90   46   6.8   3.7   31.8  89.2    21.0      M    M
 28000  -41.9 -43.4   295   88   45   6.8   3.7   30.5  86.9    20.3      M    M
 27000  -39.8 -39.6   295   85   44   6.8   3.7   29.3  84.8    19.6      M    M
 26000  -38.0 -36.4   290   83   43   5.3   2.9   27.9  82.2    18.7      M    M
 25000  -36.0 -32.8   290   81   42   8.3   4.6   26.8  80.3    18.1      M    M
 24000  -33.4 -28.1   290   78   40   8.4   4.6   26.3  79.3    17.9      M    M
 23000  -30.8 -23.4   290   77   39   8.6   4.7   25.9  78.6    17.8      M    M
 22000  -28.2 -18.8   295   76   39   9.0   4.9   25.5  77.9    17.7      M    M
 21000  -26.3 -15.3   295   76   39   6.4   3.5   24.4  75.9    16.9      M    M
 20000  -23.4 -10.1   300   76   39   7.5   4.1   23.5  74.2    16.4      M    M
 19500  -22.2  -8.0   300   75   39   8.1   4.5   23.1  73.7    16.3      M    M
 19000  -21.0  -5.8   300   74   38   8.0   4.4   22.9  73.2    16.1      M    M
 18500  -19.7  -3.5   305   67   35   6.0   3.3   22.6  72.6    16.0      M    M
 18000  -19.0  -2.2   305   62   32   5.1   2.8   21.7  71.0    15.3      M    M
 17500  -18.1  -0.6   300   58   30   7.7   4.2   21.0  69.9    14.9      M    M
 17000  -16.9   1.6   295   54   28   5.7   3.1   20.7  69.3    14.7      M    M
 16500  -16.4   2.5   295   50   26   3.8   2.1   19.6  67.4    13.8      M    M
 16000  -15.8   3.6   290   46   24   5.3   2.9   18.6  65.5    13.0      M    M
 15500  -16.5   2.3   290   38   20 -19.9 -10.9   16.2  61.1    10.9      M    M
 15000  -18.1  -0.6   295   30   15  -6.4  -3.5   12.8  55.0     7.9      M    M
 14500  -19.3  -2.7   295   22   11   3.4   1.9    9.8  49.6     5.3      M    M
 14000  -18.3  -0.9   300   15    8   6.7   3.7    9.3  48.8     4.9      M    M
 13500  -17.3   0.9   300   16    8   6.9   3.8    8.8  47.9     4.4      M    M
 13000  -16.2   2.8   305   16    8   6.9   3.8    8.3  47.0     4.0      M    M
 12500  -15.2   4.6   305   17    8   6.9   3.8    7.9  46.2     3.6      M    M
 12000  -14.2   6.4   305   17    9   6.9   3.8    7.5  45.5     3.2      M    M
 11500  -13.2   8.2   300   16    8   7.0   3.8    7.0  44.6     2.7      M    M
 11000  -12.2  10.0   290   15    8   7.0   3.8    6.5  43.7     2.3      M    M
 10500  -11.1  12.0   285   14    7   6.5   3.6    6.1  43.0     1.9      M    M
 10250  -10.8  12.6   280   14    7   3.9   2.1    5.7  42.3     1.5      M    M
 10000  -10.5  13.1   275   14    7   5.7   3.2    5.3  41.5     1.0      M    M
  9750   -9.9  14.2   275   13    7   9.6   5.3    5.2  41.3     0.9      M    M
  9500   -9.3  15.3   275   12    6   6.7   3.7    5.1  41.1     0.8      M    M
  9250   -9.0  15.8   280   10    5   4.9   2.7    4.7  40.5     0.4      M    M
  9000   -8.6  16.5   280    9    5   6.1   3.3    4.4  39.9     0.1      M    M
  8750   -8.1  17.4   285    9    4   7.2   4.0    4.1  39.4    -0.2    260  1.3
  8500   -7.5  18.5   295    8    4   8.1   4.5    4.0  39.2    -0.3    235  1.2
  8250   -6.9  19.6   305    8    4   7.9   4.3    3.9  38.9    -0.5    210  1.1
  8000   -6.3  20.7   315    8    4   8.0   4.4    3.7  38.7    -0.6    184  0.9
  7750   -5.7  21.7   310    8    4   7.9   4.4    3.6  38.4    -0.7    159  0.8
  7500   -5.1  22.8   305    8    4   8.0   4.4    3.4  38.2    -0.9    134  0.7
  7250   -4.5  23.9   300    8    4   7.9   4.4    3.3  37.9    -1.0    108  0.6
  7000   -3.9  25.0   295    8    4   8.0   4.4    3.2  37.7    -1.1     83  0.4
  6750   -3.3  26.1   295    7    4   7.9   4.3    3.0  37.4    -1.3     58  0.3
  6500   -2.7  27.1   290    6    3   8.2   4.5    2.9  37.2    -1.4     33  0.2
  6250   -2.1  28.2   285    5    3   7.1   3.9    2.7  36.9    -1.6      7  0.0
  6000   -1.7  28.9   280    4    2   6.0   3.3    2.5  36.5    -1.9      M    M
  5750   -1.3  29.7   290    4    2   6.2   3.4    2.2  36.0    -2.2      M    M
  5500   -0.8  30.6   310    4    2   8.0   4.4    2.0  35.6    -2.5      M    M
  5250   -0.1  31.8   330    4    2  11.9   6.5    2.0  35.6    -2.5      M    M
  5000    0.7  33.3   345    5    2   4.4   2.4    2.0  35.6    -2.4      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           12/15/2014 at 0800 MST          |       12/15/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -12.2  LI... +10.6              | K index... -20.0  LI... +11.9
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.8                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.3 -72.9  280  32 16   4.7   2.6 | -58.3 -72.9  270  33 17   5.0   2.8
 45000 -51.3 -60.3  280  38 20   2.7   1.5 | -50.7 -59.3  265  42 22   2.2   1.2
 40000 -49.2 -56.6  280  57 29   1.3   0.7 | -50.8 -59.4  275  60 31  -0.0  -0.0
 38000 -49.0 -56.2  280  65 33  -1.3  -0.7 | -51.2 -60.2  280  68 35  -1.1  -0.6
 36000 -49.8 -57.6  285  74 38  -1.3  -0.7 | -51.8 -61.2  285  74 38  -1.1  -0.6
 34000 -50.4 -58.7  290  85 44   3.5   1.9 | -52.1 -61.8  290  81 42   5.4   3.0
 32000 -48.1 -54.6  295  89 46   3.9   2.1 | -49.0 -56.2  290  81 42   5.2   2.9
 30000 -45.5 -49.9  295  92 47   7.6   4.2 | -45.7 -50.3  295  81 42   7.8   4.3
 29000 -43.2 -45.8  295  89 46   7.6   4.1 | -43.4 -46.1  295  78 40   7.5   4.1
 28000 -41.0 -41.8  300  86 44   7.6   4.1 | -41.2 -42.2  295  75 39   7.5   4.1
 27000 -38.7 -37.7  300  82 42   7.7   4.2 | -38.9 -38.0  295  72 37   7.5   4.1
 26000 -36.6 -33.9  300  80 41   6.6   3.6 | -36.5 -33.7  300  70 36   8.1   4.4
 25000 -34.6 -30.3  300  77 40   6.6   3.6 | -34.1 -29.4  300  69 36   8.1   4.4
 24000 -32.7 -26.9  305  75 38   6.6   3.6 | -31.6 -24.9  305  68 35   8.1   4.4
 23000 -30.4 -22.7  305  73 37   7.7   4.3 | -29.3 -20.7  305  66 34   7.9   4.3
 22000 -28.1 -18.6  305  71 36   7.8   4.3 | -26.9 -16.4  305  65 33   7.9   4.3
 21000 -25.8 -14.4  305  69 36   7.8   4.3 | -24.0 -11.2  310  63 32   7.6   4.2
 20000 -23.2  -9.8  310  67 35   8.6   4.7 | -21.7  -7.1  310  59 30   7.5   4.1
 19500 -22.0  -7.6  310  66 34   8.6   4.7 | -20.6  -5.1  310  57 30   7.6   4.1
 19000 -20.7  -5.3  310  66 34   8.7   4.8 | -19.4  -2.9  315  56 29   7.6   4.1
 18500 -19.4  -2.9  310  65 33   9.1   5.0 | -18.3  -0.9  315  54 28   7.8   4.3
 18000 -18.4  -1.1  310  63 32   4.6   2.5 | -17.1   1.2  315  52 27   7.9   4.3
 17500 -17.6   0.3  310  60 31   5.0   2.8 | -15.9   3.4  315  49 25   7.7   4.3
 17000 -16.8   1.8  310  57 29   3.2   1.8 | -15.2   4.6  315  47 24   2.1   1.2
 16500 -16.5   2.3  310  53 27   2.0   1.1 | -14.8   5.4  315  44 23   2.7   1.5
 16000 -16.1   3.0  310  47 24   1.8   1.0 | -14.5   5.9  310  41 21   1.1   0.6
 15500 -15.8   3.6  310  43 22   1.7   1.0 | -14.4   6.1  315  38 20   1.0   0.5
 15000 -15.6   3.9  315  40 20   1.0   0.6 | -14.2   6.4  315  35 18   2.6   1.4
 14500 -15.5   4.1  315  34 18   0.5   0.2 | -13.6   7.5  315  33 17   3.8   2.1
 14000 -15.5   4.1  320  29 15   0.8   0.4 | -13.0   8.6  315  30 16   3.7   2.1
 13500 -15.3   4.5  325  23 12   1.6   0.9 | -12.5   9.5  320  27 14   3.5   1.9
 13000 -15.1   4.8  330  17  9   2.7   1.5 | -12.0  10.4  320  24 12   2.9   1.6
 12500 -14.5   5.9  330  13  7   5.2   2.9 | -11.8  10.8  325  20 10   1.1   0.6
 12000 -13.8   7.2  335   9  5   6.0   3.3 | -11.6  11.1  325  16  8   1.1   0.6
 11500 -12.7   9.1  340   8  4   7.5   4.1 | -11.5  11.3  325  12  6   1.0   0.6
 11000 -11.6  11.1  350   7  4   6.9   3.8 | -11.4  11.5  325   8  4   2.5   1.4
 10500 -10.7  12.7  355   7  4   6.3   3.4 | -10.8  12.6  325   5  3   5.0   2.7
 10250 -10.3  13.5  355   7  3   5.8   3.2 | -10.4  13.3  325   4  2   5.2   2.9
 10000 -10.0  14.0  355   7  3   1.9   1.1 | -10.1  13.8  330   3  1   4.0   2.2
  9750  -9.9  14.2  355   6  3   1.4   0.8 |  -9.8  14.4  335   2  1   4.2   2.3
  9500  -9.7  14.5  350   5  3   3.1   1.7 |  -9.5  14.9  340   2  1   5.4   2.9
  9250  -9.5  14.9  345   5  2   3.5   1.9 |  -9.1  15.6  355   1  1   5.3   2.9
  9000  -9.1  15.6  340   4  2   6.1   3.3 |  -8.7  16.3  005   1  0   6.2   3.4
  8750  -8.6  16.5  330   4  2   8.2   4.5 |  -8.2  17.2  000   0  0   6.4   3.5
  8500  -7.9  17.8  320   3  2   9.2   5.1 |  -7.7  18.1  000   0  0   6.1   3.3
  8250  -7.3  18.9  305   3  2   7.8   4.3 |  -7.3  18.9  215   1  1   6.8   3.8
  8000  -6.8  19.8  295   3  2   6.8   3.7 |  -6.7  19.9  215   1  1   7.6   4.2
  7750  -6.3  20.7  290   4  2   6.2   3.4 |  -6.2  20.8  220   2  1   7.4   4.0
  7500  -5.9  21.4  280   4  2   5.2   2.8 |  -5.7  21.7  215   2  1   6.5   3.6
  7250  -5.5  22.1  275   4  2   5.0   2.8 |  -5.2  22.6  220   2  1   5.1   2.8
  7000  -5.1  22.8  275   4  2   4.9   2.7 |  -4.9  23.2  220   2  1   4.8   2.7
  6750  -4.7  23.5  270   4  2   5.1   2.8 |  -4.5  23.9  220   2  1   4.5   2.5
  6500  -4.3  24.3  265   4  2   5.1   2.8 |  -4.1  24.6  225   2  1   6.7   3.7
  6250  -4.0  24.8  260   3  2   5.2   2.8 |  -3.5  25.7  225   2  1   9.1   5.0
  6000  -3.6  25.5  255   3  1   4.7   2.6 |  -2.9  26.8  225   2  1   7.2   3.9
  5750  -3.2  26.2  250   2  1   5.5   3.0 |  -2.3  27.9  225   2  1  12.5   6.8
  5500  -2.8  27.0  250   2  1   6.7   3.7 |  -0.9  30.4  225   2  1  23.8  13.1
  5250  -2.3  27.9  245   2  1   5.8   3.2 |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           12/15/2014 at 1400 MST          |       12/15/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -20.7  LI... +12.1              | K index... -18.4  LI... +11.1
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.4                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.4 -74.9  265  38 20   4.7   2.6 | -59.1 -74.4  265  38 20   4.8   2.6
 45000 -52.5 -62.5  270  53 27   1.7   0.9 | -51.9 -61.4  270  52 27   1.7   0.9
 40000 -53.1 -63.6  270  70 36  -0.4  -0.2 | -54.0 -65.2  270  70 36  -1.4  -0.7
 38000 -53.2 -63.8  275  74 38   0.1   0.1 | -54.2 -65.6  270  77 40   0.6   0.3
 36000 -53.1 -63.6  280  76 39   0.1   0.1 | -53.9 -65.0  270  83 43   0.6   0.3
 34000 -52.5 -62.5  285  77 40   6.6   3.6 | -52.9 -63.2  275  89 46   8.3   4.6
 32000 -48.9 -56.0  285  76 39   6.0   3.3 | -48.4 -55.1  275  84 43   7.6   4.2
 30000 -45.2 -49.4  285  75 38   7.5   4.1 | -44.0 -47.2  275  78 40   6.3   3.4
 29000 -42.9 -45.2  285  71 36   7.4   4.1 | -42.0 -43.6  275  71 37   6.4   3.5
 28000 -40.7 -41.3  285  67 34   7.4   4.1 | -40.1 -40.2  275  64 33   6.4   3.5
 27000 -38.5 -37.3  285  63 32   7.5   4.1 | -38.2 -36.8  275  57 30   6.4   3.5
 26000 -36.1 -33.0  290  59 31   8.1   4.4 | -35.6 -32.1  280  52 27   7.0   3.8
 25000 -33.6 -28.5  295  56 29   8.1   4.4 | -33.5 -28.3  280  49 25   7.0   3.9
 24000 -31.2 -24.2  295  53 27   8.1   4.5 | -31.4 -24.5  285  45 23   7.5   4.1
 23000 -29.0 -20.2  300  51 26   7.4   4.1 | -29.0 -20.2  290  41 21   8.4   4.6
 22000 -26.7 -16.1  300  49 25   7.5   4.1 | -26.4 -15.5  290  36 19   8.4   4.6
 21000 -23.9 -11.0  305  47 24   8.4   4.6 | -23.9 -11.0  295  32 17   8.3   4.6
 20000 -21.4  -6.5  310  46 24   8.4   4.6 | -21.5  -6.7  295  32 16   8.3   4.6
 19500 -20.1  -4.2  310  45 23   8.4   4.6 | -20.2  -4.4  300  32 16   8.3   4.6
 19000 -18.8  -1.8  310  44 23   8.5   4.6 | -19.0  -2.2  300  31 16   8.3   4.6
 18500 -17.6   0.3  315  44 23   8.1   4.5 | -17.7   0.1  300  31 16   8.3   4.6
 18000 -16.4   2.5  310  42 22   8.0   4.4 | -16.5   2.3  300  30 16   8.4   4.6
 17500 -15.2   4.6  310  41 21   7.8   4.3 | -15.2   4.6  305  29 15   8.5   4.6
 17000 -14.1   6.6  310  39 20   6.6   3.6 | -14.0   6.8  305  29 15   7.4   4.0
 16500 -13.1   8.4  310  38 19   7.0   3.8 | -12.9   8.8  305  28 14   7.5   4.1
 16000 -12.3   9.9  305  36 19   3.4   1.9 | -11.8  10.8  305  27 14   6.4   3.5
 15500 -11.8  10.8  305  34 18   3.5   1.9 | -10.9  12.4  300  27 14   6.1   3.3
 15000 -11.3  11.7  305  32 17   2.7   1.5 | -10.0  14.0  300  27 14   5.4   2.9
 14500 -10.9  12.4  305  30 15   2.3   1.3 |  -9.3  15.3  295  26 14   4.3   2.3
 14000 -10.6  12.9  305  28 14   2.5   1.4 |  -8.7  16.3  295  25 13   4.0   2.2
 13500 -10.2  13.6  305  25 13   2.7   1.5 |  -8.3  17.1  295  24 12   2.5   1.3
 13000  -9.8  14.4  310  22 11   2.4   1.3 |  -7.7  18.1  295  20 11   1.7   0.9
 12500  -9.5  14.9  310  19 10   1.9   1.0 |  -7.5  18.5  295  17  9   1.3   0.7
 12000  -9.2  15.4  315  16  8   1.8   1.0 |  -7.3  18.9  295  13  7   1.0   0.5
 11500  -9.0  15.8  315  13  7   1.5   0.8 |  -7.2  19.0  295  10  5   0.8   0.5
 11000  -8.8  16.2  320  10  5   1.2   0.7 |  -7.1  19.2  295   7  3   0.8   0.4
 10500  -8.7  16.3  325   7  3   0.8   0.4 |  -7.0  19.4  280   4  2   0.9   0.5
 10250  -8.7  16.3  330   5  3   0.6   0.3 |  -7.0  19.4  270   3  1   0.1   0.1
 10000  -8.7  16.3  340   4  2   1.7   0.9 |  -7.0  19.4  245   2  1   1.0   0.6
  9750  -8.4  16.9  350   3  2   4.7   2.6 |  -6.8  19.8  190   1  1   2.9   1.6
  9500  -8.0  17.6  010   2  1   5.9   3.2 |  -6.7  19.9  150   2  1   2.7   1.5
  9250  -7.6  18.3  050   2  1   5.4   3.0 |  -6.5  20.3  135   3  2   3.1   1.7
  9000  -7.3  18.9  080   2  1   4.4   2.4 |  -6.2  20.8  135   4  2   4.6   2.5
  8750  -7.0  19.4  100   2  1   5.4   3.0 |  -5.8  21.6  140   4  2   6.3   3.4
  8500  -6.5  20.3  115   2  1   6.9   3.8 |  -5.3  22.5  150   4  2   6.8   3.7
  8250  -6.0  21.2  130   3  1   6.3   3.4 |  -4.9  23.2  155   5  2   6.5   3.6
  8000  -5.6  21.9  135   3  2   5.9   3.3 |  -4.4  24.1  160   5  3   6.4   3.5
  7750  -5.1  22.8  140   3  2   6.4   3.5 |  -3.9  25.0  160   5  3   6.5   3.6
  7500  -4.6  23.7  145   4  2   6.9   3.8 |  -3.5  25.7  160   5  3   6.2   3.4
  7250  -4.1  24.6  145   4  2   7.0   3.8 |  -3.0  26.6  160   6  3   5.7   3.1
  7000  -3.6  25.5  150   4  2   6.9   3.8 |  -2.6  27.3  155   6  3   5.7   3.1
  6750  -3.1  26.4  150   4  2   7.6   4.2 |  -2.2  28.0  155   6  3   5.5   3.0
  6500  -2.5  27.5  155   4  2   9.8   5.4 |  -1.9  28.6  150   7  3   5.5   3.0
  6250  -1.7  28.9  155   4  2  10.8   5.9 |  -1.5  29.3  150   6  3   5.3   2.9
  6000  -1.0  30.2  155   3  2  10.0   5.5 |  -1.1  30.0  150   6  3   6.0   3.3
  5750  -0.2  31.6  155   3  2  12.1   6.7 |  -0.8  30.6  150   6  3   3.2   1.8
  5500   0.9  33.6  155   3  2  18.0   9.9 |  -0.7  30.7  150   5  3   0.1   0.0
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |  -0.6  30.9  145   4  2   2.5   1.4
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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