Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 161227
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0527 MST Tuesday, December 16, 2014

This forecast is for Tuesday, December 16, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 50.7 F/10.4 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 101 ft/min (0.5 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8102 ft MSL (3263 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 43.0 F/6.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5900 ft MSL (1061 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 12/17.... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:26:49 / 16:52:59 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 26 min 10 sec (566 min 10 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:09:56 MST... 27.62 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 12/16/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 4839 ft MSL (0 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 5695 ft MSL (856 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18229 ft MSL (13390 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12072 ft MSL (7233 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +13.5
K index......................... +0.1

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -59.8 -75.6   240   36   19   5.4   3.0  102.0 215.6    54.5      M    M
 45000  -56.0 -68.8   245   48   25   1.6   0.9   83.6 182.4    47.1      M    M
 40000  -57.6 -71.7   255   71   36   4.4   2.4   57.9 136.3    33.7      M    M
 38000  -54.2 -65.6   245   64   33   4.6   2.5   54.2 129.5    32.1      M    M
 36000  -53.4 -64.1   250   83   43   0.6   0.3   46.8 116.2    27.9      M    M
 34000  -53.5 -64.3   250   87   45 -12.6  -6.9   37.3  99.1    22.0      M    M
 32000  -50.8 -59.4   245   76   39   8.5   4.7   32.9  91.2    19.5      M    M
 30000  -45.2 -49.4   245   66   34   9.3   5.1   32.5  90.5    19.7      M    M
 29000  -42.4 -44.3   245   61   32   8.7   4.8   32.3  90.1    19.8      M    M
 28000  -40.0 -40.0   245   57   29   8.2   4.5   31.6  89.0    19.5      M    M
 27000  -37.6 -35.7   240   53   27   7.9   4.3   31.0  87.8    19.3      M    M
 26000  -35.2 -31.4   240   48   25   7.9   4.3   30.3  86.5    18.9      M    M
 25000  -32.8 -27.0   240   44   23   7.9   4.3   29.6  85.4    18.6      M    M
 24000  -30.7 -23.3   240   39   20   5.6   3.1   28.6  83.5    18.0      M    M
 23000  -28.8 -19.8   240   35   18   6.6   3.6   27.4  81.3    17.2      M    M
 22000  -26.8 -16.2   235   31   16   7.3   4.0   26.3  79.4    16.5      M    M
 21000  -24.6 -12.3   235   31   16   7.5   4.1   25.5  77.9    16.0      M    M
 20000  -22.4  -8.3   240   32   16   7.5   4.1   24.7  76.5    15.5      M    M
 19500  -21.2  -6.2   240   32   16   7.5   4.1   24.3  75.8    15.3      M    M
 19000  -20.1  -4.2   235   32   16   7.5   4.1   23.9  75.0    15.0      M    M
 18500  -18.6  -1.5   235   31   16   6.2   3.4   23.2  73.8    14.5      M    M
 18000  -17.6   0.3   235   30   15   6.2   3.4   22.6  72.7    14.0      M    M
 17500  -16.7   1.9   240   29   15   6.2   3.4   22.0  71.6    13.6      M    M
 17000  -15.8   3.6   240   27   14   6.9   3.8   21.4  70.5    13.1      M    M
 16500  -14.7   5.5   245   26   13   7.3   4.0   21.0  69.8    12.8      M    M
 16000  -13.7   7.3   245   25   13   7.3   4.0   20.6  69.1    12.5      M    M
 15500  -12.6   9.3   245   27   14   7.3   4.0   20.2  68.3    12.2      M    M
 15000  -11.5  11.3   245   28   15   7.4   4.0   19.7  67.5    11.8      M    M
 14500  -10.4  13.3   245   30   15   7.4   4.0   19.4  66.8    11.5      M    M
 14000   -9.4  15.1   245   31   16   7.4   4.1   19.0  66.2    11.2      M    M
 13500   -8.3  17.1   240   27   14   7.5   4.1   18.6  65.4    10.8      M    M
 13000   -7.3  18.9   235   24   12   6.7   3.7   18.1  64.6    10.5      M    M
 12500   -6.3  20.7   230   21   11   6.9   3.8   17.6  63.6    10.0      M    M
 12000   -5.7  21.7   220   19   10   0.7   0.4   16.7  62.1     9.3      M    M
 11500   -5.5  22.1   215   18    9  -1.3  -0.7   15.2  59.4     8.0      M    M
 11000   -4.9  23.2   210   17    8   9.8   5.4   14.2  57.6     7.2      M    M
 10500   -3.5  25.7   200   16    8   9.2   5.0   14.1  57.4     7.2      M    M
 10250   -2.8  27.0   200   15    8   8.6   4.7   14.0  57.3     7.2      M    M
 10000   -2.3  27.9   195   15    8   0.2   0.1   13.7  56.7     6.9      M    M
  9750   -2.6  27.3   190   16    8  -6.2  -3.4   12.6  54.7     6.0      M    M
  9500   -2.9  26.8   185   17    9  -2.6  -1.4   11.5  52.6     5.0      M    M
  9250   -2.8  27.0   185   18    9   5.5   3.0   10.8  51.4     4.3      M    M
  9000   -2.2  28.0   180   19   10   8.2   4.5   10.6  51.2     4.2      M    M
  8750   -1.6  29.1   175   19   10  11.2   6.2   10.5  50.9     4.1      M    M
  8500   -1.0  30.2   170   19   10  -3.6  -2.0   10.4  50.7     4.0      M    M
  8250   -2.4  27.7   165   19   10 -27.0 -14.8    8.2  46.8     1.8      M    M
  8000   -4.1  24.6   160   19   10  -7.2  -3.9    5.8  42.4    -0.6    312  1.6
  7750   -3.7  25.3   155   17    9   9.4   5.2    5.5  41.9    -0.9    291  1.5
  7500   -3.2  26.2   145   15    8   4.9   2.7    5.2  41.4    -1.2    271  1.4
  7250   -2.8  27.0   135   13    7   6.5   3.6    4.9  40.8    -1.5    251  1.3
  7000   -2.3  27.9   125   12    6   6.9   3.8    4.7  40.4    -1.8    229  1.2
  6750   -1.8  28.8   115   11    6   7.1   3.9    4.5  40.0    -2.0    205  1.0
  6500   -1.2  29.8   105   10    5   6.8   3.7    4.2  39.6    -2.2    182  0.9
  6250   -0.7  30.7   090   10    5   7.6   4.2    4.0  39.3    -2.4    159  0.8
  6000   -0.2  31.6   080   10    5   4.7   2.6    3.8  38.9    -2.6    135  0.7
  5750   -0.0  32.0   075    8    4   1.1   0.6    3.2  37.8    -3.2    124  0.6
  5500    0.0  32.0   075    6    3   1.3   0.7    2.6  36.7    -3.9    114  0.6
  5250    0.1  32.2   080    4    2   1.4   0.8    2.0  35.5    -4.5    104  0.5
  5000    0.2  32.4   095    2    1   0.8   0.4    1.3  34.4    -5.2     95  0.5

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           12/16/2014 at 0800 MST          |       12/16/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +19.9  LI... +1.3               | K index... +14.0  LI... +1.9
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.9 -75.8  235  37 19   3.5   1.9 | -60.1 -76.2  230  41 21   2.9   1.6
 45000 -54.5 -66.1  235  49 25   0.7   0.4 | -55.5 -67.9  230  55 28   1.6   0.9
 40000 -56.7 -70.1  240  70 36  -1.5  -0.8 | -54.6 -66.3  235  69 35   0.6   0.3
 38000 -56.2 -69.2  240  76 39   3.4   1.9 | -54.1 -65.4  235  74 38   1.1   0.6
 36000 -54.1 -65.4  240  77 39   3.4   1.9 | -53.4 -64.1  235  79 41   1.1   0.6
 34000 -52.0 -61.6  240  77 40   4.6   2.5 | -52.6 -62.7  230  83 43   4.2   2.3
 32000 -49.2 -56.6  235  70 36   4.6   2.5 | -49.7 -57.5  230  75 39   4.8   2.7
 30000 -45.6 -50.1  235  61 31   8.1   4.4 | -46.6 -51.9  225  67 34   8.5   4.6
 29000 -43.2 -45.8  230  54 28   8.1   4.5 | -43.4 -46.1  225  59 31   8.6   4.7
 28000 -40.7 -41.3  230  47 24   8.1   4.5 | -40.8 -41.4  220  54 28   8.6   4.7
 27000 -38.3 -36.9  225  41 21   8.6   4.7 | -38.2 -36.8  220  48 25   8.5   4.7
 26000 -35.6 -32.1  225  39 20   9.1   5.0 | -35.7 -32.3  220  41 21   8.4   4.6
 25000 -32.8 -27.0  230  38 19   9.1   5.0 | -33.2 -27.8  225  35 18   8.4   4.6
 24000 -30.1 -22.2  235  36 19   8.6   4.7 | -30.7 -23.3  230  29 15   8.3   4.6
 23000 -28.1 -18.6  230  35 18   6.5   3.6 | -28.4 -19.1  230  29 15   7.6   4.2
 22000 -26.2 -15.2  225  34 17   6.5   3.6 | -26.2 -15.2  235  31 16   7.6   4.2
 21000 -24.2 -11.6  220  33 17   6.6   3.6 | -23.9 -11.0  235  32 17   6.0   3.3
 20000 -22.2  -8.0  220  35 18   6.7   3.6 | -22.6  -8.7  230  35 18   4.6   2.5
 19500 -21.3  -6.3  220  36 19   6.7   3.7 | -21.9  -7.4  225  36 19   4.6   2.5
 19000 -20.3  -4.5  220  37 19   6.7   3.7 | -21.2  -6.2  220  37 19   4.6   2.5
 18500 -19.3  -2.7  220  38 20   7.1   3.9 | -20.5  -4.9  220  39 20   5.2   2.8
 18000 -18.2  -0.8  225  39 20   7.6   4.2 | -19.6  -3.3  220  38 19   6.3   3.5
 17500 -17.1   1.2  225  39 20   7.6   4.2 | -18.6  -1.5  220  36 19   6.2   3.4
 17000 -15.9   3.4  225  39 20   7.8   4.3 | -17.6   0.3  220  35 18   7.5   4.1
 16500 -14.8   5.4  225  38 20   7.8   4.3 | -16.5   2.3  220  35 18   7.4   4.1
 16000 -13.7   7.3  225  38 19   6.8   3.7 | -15.4   4.3  220  34 18   7.5   4.1
 15500 -12.7   9.1  225  37 19   6.5   3.5 | -14.3   6.3  220  34 17   7.6   4.2
 15000 -11.8  10.8  230  36 18   6.0   3.3 | -13.2   8.2  220  33 17   7.1   3.9
 14500 -10.6  12.9  230  35 18   5.1   2.8 | -12.3   9.9  220  32 16   6.2   3.4
 14000  -9.8  14.4  230  35 18   6.2   3.4 | -10.9  12.4  220  30 16   6.9   3.8
 13500  -8.9  16.0  230  35 18   6.4   3.5 |  -9.8  14.4  220  30 15   7.1   3.9
 13000  -7.9  17.8  230  34 18   7.1   3.9 |  -8.8  16.2  220  29 15   7.1   3.9
 12500  -6.8  19.8  230  33 17   7.5   4.1 |  -7.8  18.0  220  29 15   7.0   3.9
 12000  -5.8  21.6  230  33 17   6.2   3.4 |  -6.7  19.9  220  29 15   7.0   3.9
 11500  -5.0  23.0  225  31 16   5.5   3.0 |  -5.7  21.7  220  28 15   7.1   3.9
 11000  -4.2  24.4  220  29 15   3.6   2.0 |  -4.7  23.5  220  28 14   6.7   3.7
 10500  -3.9  25.0  215  27 14   2.9   1.6 |  -3.7  25.3  215  27 14   7.1   3.9
 10250  -3.7  25.3  215  26 13   2.0   1.1 |  -3.3  26.1  215  26 14   3.9   2.2
 10000  -3.6  25.5  210  25 13   1.0   0.6 |  -3.1  26.4  215  26 13   3.9   2.2
  9750  -3.5  25.7  210  23 12   1.1   0.6 |  -2.6  27.3  215  25 13   6.9   3.8
  9500  -3.4  25.9  210  21 11   1.2   0.7 |  -2.1  28.2  215  24 12   6.5   3.6
  9250  -3.3  26.1  205  20 10   0.8   0.4 |  -1.7  28.9  215  23 12   5.2   2.8
  9000  -3.3  26.1  205  18  9   0.4   0.2 |  -1.4  29.5  210  22 11   2.3   1.3
  8750  -3.2  26.2  200  17  9   0.6   0.3 |  -1.3  29.7  210  20 10   1.7   0.9
  8500  -3.2  26.2  200  15  8   0.7   0.4 |  -1.2  29.8  205  18  9   2.1   1.2
  8250  -3.1  26.4  195  13  7   1.1   0.6 |  -1.1  30.0  205  16  8   0.4   0.2
  8000  -3.0  26.6  190  12  6   1.4   0.8 |  -1.2  29.8  195  14  7  -0.9  -0.5
  7750  -2.9  26.8  180  11  6   1.2   0.6 |  -1.2  29.8  190  12  6   0.0   0.0
  7500  -2.8  27.0  175  10  5   1.8   1.0 |  -1.2  29.8  180  11  6   1.0   0.6
  7250  -2.6  27.3  165  10  5   2.8   1.5 |  -1.0  30.2  170  10  5   2.5   1.4
  7000  -2.4  27.7  160   9  5   2.9   1.6 |  -0.8  30.6  165   9  5   3.0   1.6
  6750  -2.2  28.0  155   9  4   3.6   2.0 |  -0.6  30.9  155   8  4   3.4   1.9
  6500  -1.9  28.6  150   7  4   3.9   2.1 |  -0.3  31.5  140   7  3   5.1   2.8
  6250  -1.6  29.1  135   6  3   3.8   2.1 |   0.1  32.2  130   5  3   6.4   3.5
  6000  -1.4  29.5  120   4  2   3.3   1.8 |   0.5  32.9  105   4  2   4.9   2.7
  5750  -1.2  29.8  085   4  2   3.2   1.8 |   0.9  33.6  080   4  2   5.6   3.1
  5500  -0.9  30.4  075   3  2   3.8   2.1 |   1.4  34.5  080   4  2   8.0   4.4
  5250  -0.6  30.9  065   3  2   3.3   1.8 |   1.9  35.4  080   4  2   6.9   3.8
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           12/16/2014 at 1400 MST          |       12/16/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +14.0  LI... +3.8               | K index... +17.3  LI... +3.3
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.0 -74.2  225  44 23   3.2   1.7 | -58.2 -72.8  225  41 21   2.8   1.5
 45000 -54.0 -65.2  225  55 28   1.8   1.0 | -54.0 -65.2  230  49 25   3.1   1.7
 40000 -53.4 -64.1  235  65 33   0.4   0.2 | -53.9 -65.0  230  64 33  -0.1  -0.0
 38000 -53.2 -63.8  235  68 35   0.5   0.3 | -54.1 -65.4  230  66 34  -0.7  -0.4
 36000 -52.9 -63.2  230  70 36   0.5   0.3 | -54.5 -66.1  235  62 32  -0.7  -0.4
 34000 -52.6 -62.7  230  72 37   2.3   1.3 | -54.9 -66.8  240  58 30   2.3   1.3
 32000 -50.5 -58.9  230  65 33   3.5   1.9 | -51.8 -61.2  240  50 26   5.2   2.8
 30000 -48.3 -54.9  230  57 30   7.5   4.1 | -48.6 -55.5  245  42 22   8.1   4.4
 29000 -45.0 -49.0  225  53 27   8.7   4.8 | -45.9 -50.6  245  40 21   9.1   5.0
 28000 -42.4 -44.3  225  50 26   8.7   4.8 | -43.2 -45.8  245  38 20   9.1   5.0
 27000 -39.8 -39.6  225  46 24   8.9   4.9 | -39.8 -39.6  245  36 19   8.9   4.9
 26000 -37.1 -34.8  225  41 21   9.3   5.1 | -37.3 -35.1  240  36 19   8.3   4.6
 25000 -34.3 -29.7  230  36 18   9.3   5.1 | -34.8 -30.6  240  37 19   8.3   4.6
 24000 -31.5 -24.7  235  30 16   9.3   5.1 | -32.3 -26.1  240  37 19   8.3   4.6
 23000 -29.2 -20.6  240  30 15   7.4   4.1 | -30.0 -22.0  235  36 19   7.6   4.2
 22000 -27.0 -16.6  245  31 16   7.4   4.1 | -27.7 -17.9  235  35 18   7.6   4.2
 21000 -24.8 -12.6  245  33 17   7.2   4.0 | -25.5 -13.9  230  34 17   7.4   4.0
 20000 -22.7  -8.9  250  34 17   7.0   3.9 | -23.4 -10.1  235  35 18   7.0   3.9
 19500 -21.7  -7.1  250  34 17   7.0   3.9 | -22.4  -8.3  235  35 18   7.0   3.9
 19000 -20.6  -5.1  250  34 17   7.0   3.9 | -21.3  -6.3  240  36 18   7.0   3.9
 18500 -19.6  -3.3  250  34 18   6.8   3.7 | -20.3  -4.5  240  36 19   6.9   3.8
 18000 -18.7  -1.7  245  35 18   5.9   3.2 | -19.3  -2.7  240  36 18   6.5   3.6
 17500 -17.8  -0.0  245  36 18   6.1   3.4 | -18.4  -1.1  245  35 18   6.7   3.6
 17000 -17.1   1.2  240  36 18   3.7   2.0 | -17.5   0.5  245  34 17   5.9   3.2
 16500 -16.5   2.3  235  35 18   3.7   2.0 | -16.6   2.1  245  33 17   5.9   3.2
 16000 -15.9   3.4  230  34 17   4.2   2.3 | -15.7   3.7  245  33 17   5.4   3.0
 15500 -15.2   4.6  230  31 16   4.7   2.6 | -15.0   5.0  240  31 16   5.0   2.8
 15000 -14.5   5.9  225  28 14   5.4   3.0 | -14.2   6.4  240  30 16   5.2   2.9
 14500 -13.4   7.9  225  27 14   7.7   4.2 | -13.3   8.1  235  29 15   6.1   3.4
 14000 -11.7  10.9  225  26 13   8.4   4.6 | -12.4   9.7  235  27 14   6.1   3.4
 13500 -10.4  13.3  225  26 14   8.8   4.8 | -11.3  11.7  230  26 13   8.0   4.4
 13000  -9.1  15.6  225  27 14   8.2   4.5 |  -9.5  14.9  230  25 13   7.8   4.3
 12500  -7.9  17.8  225  27 14   7.9   4.3 |  -8.4  16.9  230  26 13   7.7   4.2
 12000  -6.8  19.8  225  28 14   7.7   4.2 |  -7.2  19.0  230  27 14   7.1   3.9
 11500  -5.7  21.7  225  27 14   7.5   4.1 |  -6.3  20.7  230  25 13   6.5   3.6
 11000  -4.7  23.5  225  26 14   7.4   4.1 |  -5.4  22.3  230  24 12   6.7   3.7
 10500  -3.6  25.5  225  26 13   7.8   4.3 |  -4.5  23.9  225  23 12   6.3   3.5
 10250  -3.1  26.4  225  26 13   5.1   2.8 |  -4.0  24.8  225  22 11   9.3   5.1
 10000  -2.8  27.0  225  25 13   4.9   2.7 |  -3.2  26.2  225  21 11   9.2   5.1
  9750  -2.3  27.9  220  25 13   7.5   4.1 |  -2.7  27.1  225  21 11   6.1   3.4
  9500  -1.8  28.8  220  25 13   7.1   3.9 |  -2.2  28.0  220  20 10   7.2   3.9
  9250  -1.3  29.7  220  25 13   6.1   3.3 |  -1.7  28.9  220  20 10   6.2   3.4
  9000  -1.0  30.2  215  24 12   3.6   2.0 |  -1.3  29.7  220  19 10   4.6   2.5
  8750  -0.8  30.6  215  22 11   3.0   1.7 |  -1.1  30.0  215  18  9   4.1   2.2
  8500  -0.5  31.1  215  20 10   3.5   1.9 |  -0.8  30.6  215  17  9   4.4   2.4
  8250  -0.3  31.5  210  18  9   2.5   1.4 |  -0.5  31.1  215  15  8   3.8   2.1
  8000  -0.2  31.6  205  16  8   1.5   0.8 |  -0.2  31.6  210  13  7   3.1   1.7
  7750  -0.1  31.8  200  14  7   1.1   0.6 |  -0.0  32.0  205  12  6   3.1   1.7
  7500  -0.1  31.8  190  12  6   1.4   0.8 |   0.2  32.4  195  10  5   3.4   1.9
  7250   0.1  32.2  180  10  5   2.9   1.6 |   0.5  32.9  190   8  4   4.5   2.5
  7000   0.4  32.7  170   8  4   3.8   2.1 |   0.9  33.6  185   7  4   5.2   2.8
  6750   0.6  33.1  160   7  3   4.3   2.4 |   1.2  34.2  175   6  3   5.1   2.8
  6500   1.0  33.8  140   5  2   6.8   3.8 |   1.6  34.9  155   5  2   5.8   3.2
  6250   1.6  34.9  125   4  2   8.3   4.6 |   2.1  35.8  140   4  2   5.9   3.2
  6000   2.2  36.0  110   3  2   8.2   4.5 |   2.5  36.5  120   3  2   6.8   3.8
  5750   2.8  37.0  095   3  2   7.6   4.2 |   2.9  37.2  085   3  2   2.9   1.6
  5500   3.3  37.9  095   3  1   6.3   3.5 |   2.8  37.0  070   3  2  -4.1  -2.3
  5250   3.7  38.7  095   3  1   6.5   3.6 |   2.5  36.5  070   3  2  -4.0  -2.2
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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