Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 231329
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0629 MST Monday, February 23, 2015

This forecast is for Monday, February 23, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 40.7 F/4.8 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8477 ft MSL (3638 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 35.0 F/2.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6735 ft MSL (1896 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 02/24...... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:55:18 / 17:58:53 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 3 min 35 sec (663 min 35 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:27:22 MST... 41.18 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/23/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 14470 ft MSL (9631 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 9447 ft MSL (4608 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +12.8
K index......................... +12.9

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -54.8 -66.6   255   32   16   0.0   0.0  112.1 233.8    62.6      M    M
 45000  -53.4 -64.1   260   36   18  -3.3  -1.8   89.3 192.8    53.2      M    M
 40000  -52.0 -61.6   245   55   28   4.6   2.5   68.3 155.0    43.2      M    M
 38000  -52.6 -62.7   255   42   22   0.0   0.0   57.4 135.2    37.2      M    M
 36000  -49.7 -57.5   255   61   32   3.8   2.1   53.0 127.4    35.2      M    M
 34000  -49.0 -56.2   245   70   36  -5.3  -2.9   45.5 113.9    30.8      M    M
 32000  -49.9 -57.8   240   68   35  -2.7  -1.5   35.9  96.7    24.8      M    M
 30000  -50.2 -58.4   230   80   41   7.8   4.3   27.7  81.8    19.3      M    M
 29000  -48.3 -54.9   230   78   40   6.1   3.4   26.3  79.3    18.5      M    M
 28000  -46.2 -51.2   230   78   40   9.3   5.1   25.1  77.3    17.9      M    M
 27000  -43.5 -46.3   225   77   40   8.9   4.9   24.8  76.6    17.8      M    M
 26000  -40.8 -41.4   225   77   39   8.9   4.9   24.5  76.1    17.8      M    M
 25000  -38.1 -36.6   225   76   39   9.0   4.9   24.4  75.8    17.9      M    M
 24000  -35.5 -31.9   230   73   38   9.2   5.0   24.0  75.2    17.8      M    M
 23000  -33.3 -27.9   230   68   35   7.1   3.9   23.1  73.5    17.3      M    M
 22000  -31.2 -24.2   230   59   30   7.0   3.8   22.0  71.7    16.6      M    M
 21000  -29.0 -20.2   235   50   25   7.9   4.3   21.2  70.1    16.1      M    M
 20000  -26.0 -14.8   235   39   20   8.2   4.5   20.5  68.9    15.7      M    M
 19500  -24.7 -12.5   235   37   19   8.2   4.5   20.2  68.3    15.6      M    M
 19000  -23.5 -10.3   230   35   18   8.2   4.5   19.9  67.8    15.4      M    M
 18500  -22.3  -8.1   230   34   17   8.1   4.5   19.6  67.3    15.2      M    M
 18000  -21.1  -6.0   230   34   17   7.1   3.9   19.3  66.8    15.1      M    M
 17500  -20.2  -4.4   235   34   18   6.3   3.5   18.7  65.7    14.6      M    M
 17000  -19.3  -2.7   235   35   18   6.3   3.4   18.1  64.6    14.2      M    M
 16500  -18.3  -0.9   245   35   18   6.3   3.4   17.5  63.5    13.7      M    M
 16000  -17.4   0.7   250   34   18   6.3   3.5   16.9  62.5    13.2      M    M
 15500  -16.5   2.3   250   30   15   6.4   3.5   16.3  61.4    12.8      M    M
 15000  -15.5   4.1   245   25   13   6.9   3.8   15.8  60.4    12.4      M    M
 14500  -14.4   6.1   245   20   10   6.9   3.8   15.3  59.6    12.0      M    M
 14000  -13.4   7.9   240   16    8   6.9   3.8   14.9  58.8    11.6      M    M
 13500  -12.4   9.7   255   16    8   6.8   3.7   14.4  57.9    11.3      M    M
 13000  -11.4  11.5   265   17    9   5.1   2.8   13.9  57.1    10.9      M    M
 12500  -10.9  12.4   270    8    4   2.5   1.4   12.8  55.0     9.9      M    M
 12000  -10.5  13.1   025    1    1   3.7   2.0   11.7  53.0     8.9      M    M
 11500  -10.0  14.0   105    2    1   3.7   2.0   10.7  51.2     8.0      M    M
 11000   -9.5  14.9   120    4    2   3.9   2.1    9.7  49.5     7.1      M    M
 10500   -8.9  16.0   120    6    3   3.6   2.0    8.8  47.8     6.3      M    M
 10250   -8.8  16.2   125    7    4  -1.3  -0.7    8.2  46.7     5.7      M    M
 10000   -8.9  16.0   125    8    4   0.9   0.5    7.2  45.0     4.8      M    M
  9750   -8.5  16.7   115    9    5   5.9   3.3    6.8  44.3     4.5      M    M
  9500   -8.2  17.2   100    9    5   5.0   2.8    6.4  43.6     4.1      M    M
  9250   -7.8  18.0   085   10    5   4.6   2.5    6.1  42.9     3.8      M    M
  9000   -7.4  18.7   070   12    6   7.3   4.0    5.7  42.3     3.4      M    M
  8750   -7.2  19.0   070   13    7 -11.0  -6.1    5.2  41.3     2.9      M    M
  8500   -8.9  16.0   070   14    7 -25.4 -14.0    2.6  36.6     0.5      M    M
  8250  -10.1  13.8   070   16    8  -6.0  -3.3    0.5  32.9    -1.4    334  1.7
  8000   -9.9  14.2   070   17    9   6.8   3.7   -0.1  31.9    -2.0    322  1.6
  7750   -9.4  15.1   070   16    8   7.6   4.1   -0.2  31.6    -2.2    298  1.5
  7500   -8.8  16.2   070   14    7   7.3   4.0   -0.4  31.2    -2.4    274  1.4
  7250   -8.3  17.1   065   12    6   7.4   4.1   -0.6  30.9    -2.6    250  1.3
  7000   -7.7  18.1   065   10    5   7.4   4.0   -0.8  30.6    -2.7    226  1.1
  6750   -7.2  19.0   060    9    4   7.4   4.1   -1.0  30.3    -2.9    202  1.0
  6500   -6.6  20.1   055    7    4   7.3   4.0   -1.2  29.9    -3.1    178  0.9
  6250   -6.1  21.0   045    5    3   7.8   4.3   -1.3  29.6    -3.3    154  0.8
  6000   -5.5  22.1   025    4    2   5.8   3.2   -1.5  29.3    -3.5    131  0.7
  5750   -5.2  22.6   020    3    1   3.7   2.0   -1.9  28.5    -3.9    114  0.6
  5500   -4.9  23.2   010    1    1   4.1   2.3   -2.4  27.7    -4.4     98  0.5
  5250   -4.6  23.7   000    0    0   4.0   2.2   -2.8  26.9    -4.8     81  0.4
  5000   -4.3  24.3   215    2    1   4.1   2.2   -3.2  26.2    -5.3     65  0.3

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/23/2015 at 0800 MST          |       02/23/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +17.3  LI... +3.2               | K index... +18.4  LI... +2.3
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.1                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.3 -67.5  265  33 17   1.7   1.0 | -55.3 -67.5  265  29 15   1.8   1.0
 45000 -52.7 -62.9  260  38 19   1.8   1.0 | -52.4 -62.3  265  35 18   1.8   1.0
 40000 -50.4 -58.7  255  32 16   1.4   0.8 | -50.3 -58.5  250  31 16   1.4   0.8
 38000 -49.6 -57.3  255  33 17   1.1   0.6 | -49.5 -57.1  245  31 16   1.2   0.7
 36000 -48.9 -56.0  255  42 21   1.1   0.6 | -48.8 -55.8  255  32 16   1.2   0.7
 34000 -48.3 -54.9  255  51 26   1.4   0.8 | -48.0 -54.4  260  33 17   1.5   0.8
 32000 -48.7 -55.7  245  54 28  -1.1  -0.6 | -48.4 -55.1  250  37 19  -0.9  -0.5
 30000 -49.4 -56.9  235  59 30  -2.0  -1.1 | -49.0 -56.2  240  44 23  -1.6  -0.9
 29000 -48.1 -54.6  230  55 28   6.4   3.5 | -47.3 -53.1  230  40 21   5.7   3.2
 28000 -45.7 -50.3  220  49 25   6.3   3.5 | -45.6 -50.1  220  36 19   5.8   3.2
 27000 -43.8 -46.8  210  45 23   6.3   3.4 | -43.9 -47.0  210  33 17   5.7   3.1
 26000 -41.5 -42.7  210  42 22   8.6   4.7 | -41.6 -42.9  205  31 16   8.6   4.7
 25000 -38.9 -38.0  210  39 20   8.6   4.7 | -39.0 -38.2  205  28 14   8.7   4.8
 24000 -36.3 -33.3  215  37 19   8.6   4.7 | -36.4 -33.5  205  24 13   8.7   4.8
 23000 -33.9 -29.0  220  36 18   7.8   4.3 | -34.0 -29.2  215  23 12   7.6   4.2
 22000 -31.6 -24.9  230  36 19   7.8   4.3 | -31.8 -25.2  230  24 12   7.6   4.1
 21000 -29.3 -20.7  235  37 19   7.8   4.3 | -29.5 -21.1  245  27 14   7.6   4.2
 20000 -26.9 -16.4  240  35 18   8.0   4.4 | -27.3 -17.1  250  22 11   7.5   4.1
 19500 -25.7 -14.3  235  33 17   8.0   4.4 | -26.1 -15.0  255  19 10   7.6   4.1
 19000 -24.5 -12.1  235  32 16   8.0   4.4 | -25.0 -13.0  260  16  8   7.6   4.1
 18500 -23.3  -9.9  235  30 15   8.1   4.4 | -23.9 -11.0  265  13  7   7.5   4.1
 18000 -22.2  -8.0  235  29 15   7.2   4.0 | -22.7  -8.9  270  11  6   8.3   4.6
 17500 -21.1  -6.0  240  28 15   7.3   4.0 | -21.5  -6.7  265  10  5   8.3   4.5
 17000 -20.1  -4.2  240  28 14   7.2   3.9 | -20.3  -4.5  265   9  5   8.0   4.4
 16500 -19.0  -2.2  240  27 14   7.1   3.9 | -19.1  -2.4  275   9  5   7.8   4.3
 16000 -18.0  -0.4  240  27 14   7.2   4.0 | -18.0  -0.4  280   9  4   7.6   4.2
 15500 -16.8   1.8  240  26 14   7.8   4.3 | -16.9   1.6  280   8  4   7.1   3.9
 15000 -15.7   3.7  240  26 13   7.9   4.3 | -15.9   3.4  285   8  4   7.1   3.9
 14500 -14.6   5.7  240  25 13   6.9   3.8 | -14.8   5.4  280   7  3   7.5   4.1
 14000 -13.6   7.5  240  23 12   7.1   3.9 | -13.2   8.2  260   5  3   7.0   3.9
 13500 -12.1  10.2  240  17  9   6.1   3.4 | -12.2  10.0  235   3  2   6.4   3.5
 13000 -11.2  11.8  240  12  6   6.0   3.3 | -11.3  11.7  180   3  2   6.1   3.3
 12500 -10.4  13.3  225   7  4   5.4   3.0 | -10.5  13.1  165   5  2   5.2   2.8
 12000  -9.6  14.7  190   5  2   5.0   2.8 |  -9.7  14.5  155   6  3   5.0   2.7
 11500  -9.1  15.6  145   4  2   2.8   1.5 |  -9.0  15.8  145   7  4   4.4   2.4
 11000  -8.7  16.3  115   5  3   3.1   1.7 |  -8.4  16.9  130   8  4   5.0   2.8
 10500  -8.1  17.4  100   8  4   3.9   2.1 |  -7.5  18.5  130   8  4   6.1   3.3
 10250  -7.9  17.8  095   9  5   3.1   1.7 |  -7.1  19.2  125   8  4   6.7   3.7
 10000  -7.6  18.3  095  10  5   6.0   3.3 |  -6.6  20.1  125   8  4   4.0   2.2
  9750  -7.1  19.2  095  10  5   6.3   3.4 |  -6.5  20.3  130   8  4   2.9   1.6
  9500  -6.8  19.8  095  11  6   3.4   1.9 |  -6.1  21.0  135   8  4   5.0   2.7
  9250  -6.5  20.3  095  11  6   4.3   2.3 |  -5.8  21.6  140   8  4   3.8   2.1
  9000  -6.2  20.8  095  12  6   2.5   1.3 |  -5.6  21.9  145   7  4   1.7   0.9
  8750  -6.1  21.0  095  11  6   1.3   0.7 |  -5.5  22.1  145   7  4   1.8   1.0
  8500  -6.0  21.2  095  11  5   1.8   1.0 |  -5.3  22.5  145   7  4   3.3   1.8
  8250  -5.9  21.4  100  10  5   1.4   0.8 |  -5.1  22.8  150   7  3   1.9   1.0
  8000  -5.8  21.6  095  10  5   0.7   0.4 |  -5.0  23.0  145   6  3   0.4   0.2
  7750  -5.7  21.7  095  10  5   0.0   0.0 |  -5.0  23.0  145   6  3  -0.0  -0.0
  7500  -5.8  21.6  090  10  5  -0.3  -0.2 |  -5.0  23.0  140   5  2  -0.1  -0.1
  7250  -5.8  21.6  085  10  5  -0.1  -0.0 |  -5.0  23.0  130   3  2   0.5   0.3
  7000  -5.8  21.6  075  10  5   0.2   0.1 |  -4.9  23.2  110   2  1   1.1   0.6
  6750  -5.7  21.7  060   9  5  -0.3  -0.2 |  -4.9  23.2  070   2  1   0.5   0.3
  6500  -5.7  21.7  050   9  5   1.9   1.0 |  -4.7  23.5  025   1  1   5.3   2.9
  6250  -5.5  22.1  040   8  4   4.4   2.4 |  -4.1  24.6  005   1  1   9.6   5.3
  6000  -5.1  22.8  030   7  4   4.4   2.4 |  -3.5  25.7  345   1  1   8.2   4.5
  5750  -4.8  23.4  020   6  3   5.7   3.1 |  -2.9  26.8  325   2  1   8.3   4.5
  5500  -4.3  24.3  015   5  3   6.3   3.5 |  -2.3  27.9  325   2  1   8.7   4.8
  5250  -3.9  25.0  015   5  3   5.4   3.0 |  -1.6  29.1  325   1  1   9.0   4.9
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           02/23/2015 at 1400 MST          |       02/23/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +13.3  LI... +1.8               | K index... +8.6  LI... +2.3
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.5                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.4 -67.7  275  28 14   1.2   0.6 | -56.5 -69.7  280  30 15   1.1   0.6
 45000 -53.5 -64.3  270  31 16   1.4   0.8 | -54.7 -66.5  275  36 19   1.5   0.8
 40000 -49.9 -57.8  260  34 17   2.4   1.3 | -50.5 -58.9  270  36 19   2.8   1.6
 38000 -48.8 -55.8  260  33 17   0.6   0.3 | -49.1 -56.4  270  35 18   1.1   0.6
 36000 -48.5 -55.3  260  28 15   0.6   0.3 | -48.5 -55.3  270  30 15   1.1   0.6
 34000 -48.1 -54.6  265  24 12   0.6   0.3 | -47.8 -54.0  265  25 13   1.1   0.6
 32000 -47.8 -54.0  265  27 14   0.6   0.3 | -47.2 -53.0  270  23 12   1.1   0.6
 30000 -47.4 -53.3  265  32 16   2.0   1.1 | -46.4 -51.5  270  21 11   1.8   1.0
 29000 -46.4 -51.5  250  28 15   3.2   1.7 | -45.7 -50.3  265  22 12   2.2   1.2
 28000 -45.5 -49.9  240  26 14   3.2   1.7 | -45.1 -49.2  255  24 12   2.2   1.2
 27000 -44.5 -48.1  225  26 13   2.9   1.6 | -44.4 -47.9  250  26 13   1.8   1.0
 26000 -42.5 -44.5  220  24 12   9.2   5.0 | -42.4 -44.3  250  24 12   9.3   5.1
 25000 -39.7 -39.5  220  21 11   9.3   5.1 | -39.6 -39.3  245  20 10   9.3   5.1
 24000 -36.9 -34.4  225  18  9   9.3   5.1 | -36.8 -34.2  235  15  8   9.4   5.1
 23000 -34.3 -29.7  235  18  9   8.4   4.6 | -34.2 -29.6  240  13  7   8.4   4.6
 22000 -31.8 -25.2  245  21 11   8.4   4.6 | -31.7 -25.1  255  13  7   8.4   4.6
 21000 -29.2 -20.6  250  25 13   8.4   4.6 | -29.1 -20.4  270  13  7   8.4   4.6
 20000 -27.0 -16.6  255  21 11   7.5   4.1 | -26.7 -16.1  280  12  6   8.1   4.5
 19500 -25.8 -14.4  260  19 10   7.5   4.1 | -25.5 -13.9  285  11  6   8.1   4.5
 19000 -24.7 -12.5  260  16  8   7.5   4.1 | -24.2 -11.6  295  10  5   8.1   4.5
 18500 -23.6 -10.5  265  14  7   7.4   4.1 | -23.0  -9.4  300   9  5   8.2   4.5
 18000 -22.4  -8.3  270  12  6   8.2   4.5 | -21.8  -7.2  305   8  4   7.9   4.4
 17500 -21.2  -6.2  265  10  5   8.1   4.5 | -20.6  -5.1  300   7  3   8.0   4.4
 17000 -20.0  -4.0  265   8  4   7.9   4.3 | -19.4  -2.9  295   5  3   7.7   4.2
 16500 -18.8  -1.8  265   7  4   7.9   4.3 | -18.3  -0.9  280   5  2   7.6   4.2
 16000 -17.7   0.1  270   6  3   8.1   4.4 | -17.1   1.2  265   4  2   7.7   4.2
 15500 -16.4   2.5  275   5  3   8.6   4.7 | -16.0   3.2  255   4  2   7.9   4.3
 15000 -15.1   4.8  285   5  2   8.6   4.7 | -14.2   6.4  240   5  2   7.9   4.3
 14500 -13.3   8.1  290   4  2   7.9   4.3 | -13.1   8.4  240   5  2   7.9   4.3
 14000 -12.2  10.0  290   4  2   7.6   4.2 | -11.9  10.6  240   5  3   7.6   4.2
 13500 -11.1  12.0  285   2  1   7.1   3.9 | -10.8  12.6  235   4  2   7.3   4.0
 13000 -10.1  13.8  265   1  0   6.4   3.5 |  -9.8  14.4  230   4  2   6.5   3.6
 12500  -9.4  15.1  170   1  1   4.7   2.6 |  -9.0  15.8  215   3  2   5.1   2.8
 12000  -8.7  16.3  150   3  1   4.4   2.4 |  -8.3  17.1  200   3  2   4.5   2.5
 11500  -8.1  17.4  150   3  2   3.6   2.0 |  -7.8  18.0  190   3  2   3.4   1.9
 11000  -7.6  18.3  155   4  2   3.9   2.1 |  -7.3  18.9  180   4  2   3.4   1.9
 10500  -7.0  19.4  170   5  2   4.4   2.4 |  -6.8  19.8  175   3  1   3.6   2.0
 10250  -6.7  19.9  175   5  3   4.3   2.3 |  -6.6  20.1  165   2  1   2.3   1.3
 10000  -6.4  20.5  180   5  3   3.3   1.8 |  -6.5  20.3  150   2  1   2.3   1.3
  9750  -6.2  20.8  180   5  3   4.1   2.2 |  -6.2  20.8  130   2  1   4.2   2.3
  9500  -5.8  21.6  180   5  3   5.4   2.9 |  -5.9  21.4  115   2  1   4.4   2.4
  9250  -5.5  22.1  175   6  3   4.6   2.5 |  -5.6  21.9  100   2  1   3.9   2.1
  9000  -5.2  22.6  170   5  3   3.1   1.7 |  -5.3  22.5  095   3  1   3.6   2.0
  8750  -5.0  23.0  165   5  2   2.8   1.5 |  -5.0  23.0  080   3  2   4.5   2.5
  8500  -4.7  23.5  155   4  2   3.5   1.9 |  -4.7  23.5  065   4  2   4.9   2.7
  8250  -4.5  23.9  140   3  2   2.9   1.6 |  -4.3  24.3  055   5  2   5.0   2.8
  8000  -4.3  24.3  115   2  1   2.5   1.4 |  -3.9  25.0  050   5  3   5.6   3.1
  7750  -4.1  24.6  090   2  1   3.0   1.6 |  -3.5  25.7  045   6  3   6.2   3.4
  7500  -3.9  25.0  070   3  1   3.6   2.0 |  -3.0  26.6  045   7  3   6.7   3.7
  7250  -3.6  25.5  060   3  2   5.2   2.8 |  -2.5  27.5  045   7  4   7.1   3.9
  7000  -3.1  26.4  055   2  1   6.3   3.4 |  -2.0  28.4  040   6  3   7.4   4.0
  6750  -2.7  27.1  050   2  1   5.0   2.7 |  -1.5  29.3  040   6  3   6.8   3.7
  6500  -2.3  27.9  035   1  1   8.0   4.4 |  -1.0  30.2  040   5  3   8.2   4.5
  6250  -1.5  29.3  035   1  1  11.2   6.2 |  -0.3  31.5  045   5  2   9.5   5.2
  6000  -0.8  30.6  030   1  0  10.0   5.5 |   0.4  32.7  045   4  2   9.5   5.2
  5750  -0.0  32.0  030   1  0   9.4   5.2 |   1.1  34.0  050   4  2   7.9   4.3
  5500   0.6  33.1  000   0  0   9.4   5.2 |   1.5  34.7  050   3  2   5.4   2.9
  5250   1.3  34.3  000   0  0  10.1   5.5 |   1.9  35.4  045   3  2   6.2   3.4
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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