Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 221253
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0653 MDT Sunday, March 22, 2015

This forecast is for Sunday, March 22, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 65.7 F/18.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1048 ft/min (5.3 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 16109 ft MSL (11270 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 71.0 F/22.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1330 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8336 ft MSL (3497 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 03/23....... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:14:41 / 19:26:55 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 12 min 14 sec (732 min 14 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:20:58 MDT... 51.63 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 03/22/2015 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 11837 ft MSL (6998 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18195 ft MSL (13356 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17954 ft MSL (13115 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +2.3
K index......................... +8.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -56.5 -69.7   250   48   25  -5.6  -3.1  107.8 226.1    49.0      M    M
 45000  -54.9 -66.8   275   40   21  -3.5  -1.9   84.4 183.9    38.3      M    M
 40000  -61.4 -78.5   280   52   27  -4.1  -2.3   51.0 123.8    19.2      M    M
 38000  -61.3 -78.3   285   49   25   5.0   2.7   42.3 108.2    13.9      M    M
 36000  -58.1 -72.6   290   54   28   5.5   3.0   38.4 101.2    11.6      M    M
 34000  -53.5 -64.3   285   59   31   6.2   3.4   36.7  98.0    10.6      M    M
 32000  -47.8 -54.0   280   56   29   8.1   4.5   35.4  95.8    10.1      M    M
 30000  -43.1 -45.6   280   55   28   8.0   4.4   33.9  93.1     9.2      M    M
 29000  -40.7 -41.3   280   51   26   8.0   4.4   33.0  91.4     8.6      M    M
 28000  -38.3 -36.9   280   48   25   8.0   4.4   32.3  90.1     8.1      M    M
 27000  -35.9 -32.6   280   44   23   8.0   4.4   31.6  88.9     7.7      M    M
 26000  -33.5 -28.3   280   41   21   8.1   4.4   31.1  88.0     7.4      M    M
 25000  -31.6 -24.9   280   37   19   5.1   2.8   30.0  85.9     6.5      M    M
 24000  -30.0 -22.0   280   36   18   7.7   4.2   28.3  83.0     5.3      M    M
 23000  -27.5 -17.5   280   32   16   8.6   4.7   27.9  82.2     5.0      M    M
 22000  -25.1 -13.2   280   28   15   7.5   4.1   27.1  80.9     4.5      M    M
 21000  -23.0  -9.4   275   25   13   4.9   2.7   26.2  79.2     3.8      M    M
 20000  -21.8  -7.2   275   21   11   3.3   1.8   24.2  75.5     2.0      M    M
 19500  -21.0  -5.8   275   21   11   8.3   4.6   23.4  74.2     1.4      M    M
 19000  -19.8  -3.6   280   20   10   8.6   4.7   23.2  73.8     1.2      M    M
 18500  -18.5  -1.3   280   20   10   8.2   4.5   23.0  73.4     1.0      M    M
 18000  -17.2   1.0   275   19   10   8.9   4.9   22.8  73.0     0.8      M    M
 17500  -15.9   3.4   275   19   10   9.0   4.9   22.6  72.7     0.7      M    M
 17000  -13.9   7.0   270   18    9   8.4   4.6   22.4  72.4     0.5      M    M
 16500  -12.8   9.0   265   17    9   7.8   4.3   22.1  71.8     0.2      M    M
 16000  -11.7  10.9   265   17    9   8.6   4.7   21.8  71.2    -0.1   1028  5.2
 15500  -10.2  13.6   270   15    8   9.4   5.2   21.7  71.1    -0.2    971  4.9
 15000   -8.8  16.2   270   13    7   9.4   5.2   21.7  71.1    -0.2    914  4.6
 14500   -7.4  18.7   265   12    6   9.5   5.2   21.7  71.0    -0.3    856  4.4
 14000   -6.0  21.2   260   12    6   9.5   5.2   21.6  70.9    -0.3    799  4.1
 13500   -4.6  23.7   265   12    6   9.5   5.2   21.5  70.7    -0.4    742  3.8
 13000   -3.2  26.2   270   11    6   9.5   5.2   21.5  70.6    -0.5    685  3.5
 12500   -1.8  28.8   275   11    6   9.5   5.2   21.4  70.5    -0.5    628  3.2
 12000   -0.4  31.3   280   11    6   9.7   5.3   21.4  70.5    -0.6    571  2.9
 11500    0.9  33.6   275   11    6   6.4   3.5   21.1  70.0    -0.8    519  2.6
 11000    1.8  35.2   270   12    6   6.0   3.3   20.5  68.9    -1.4    478  2.4
 10500    2.7  36.9   265   13    6   6.0   3.3   19.9  67.8    -2.0    436  2.2
 10250    3.1  37.6   260   13    7   6.1   3.4   19.6  67.3    -2.2    415  2.1
 10000    3.6  38.5   260   13    7   7.9   4.3   19.4  66.9    -2.5    393  2.0
  9750    4.3  39.7   260   14    7   9.0   4.9   19.3  66.8    -2.5    366  1.9
  9500    4.9  40.8   260   14    7   8.7   4.8   19.2  66.6    -2.6    339  1.7
  9250    5.6  42.1   260   15    7   8.8   4.8   19.2  66.5    -2.7    312  1.6
  9000    6.2  43.2   260   15    8   8.7   4.8   19.1  66.4    -2.8    285  1.4
  8750    6.9  44.4   260   13    7   8.7   4.8   19.0  66.3    -2.9    258  1.3
  8500    7.5  45.5   265   12    6   8.7   4.8   18.9  66.1    -2.9    231  1.2
  8250    8.2  46.8   265   10    5   8.7   4.8   18.9  66.0    -3.0    204  1.0
  8000    8.8  47.8   270    8    4   8.7   4.8   18.8  65.8    -3.1    177  0.9
  7750    9.5  49.1   250    6    3   8.8   4.8   18.7  65.7    -3.2    150  0.8
  7500   10.1  50.2   210    5    3   8.5   4.7   18.6  65.5    -3.3    123  0.6
  7250   10.8  51.4   180    7    4   9.7   5.3   18.5  65.4    -3.4     96  0.5
  7000   11.5  52.7   160   10    5   5.2   2.8   18.5  65.2    -3.5     69  0.4
  6750   11.5  52.7   160   13    7  -1.1  -0.6   17.8  64.0    -4.1     60  0.3
  6500   11.4  52.5   155   16    8  -1.2  -0.7   16.9  62.5    -5.0     55  0.3
  6250   11.3  52.3   155   19   10  -1.1  -0.6   16.1  61.0    -5.8     51  0.3
  6000   11.2  52.2   155   22   11  -1.5  -0.8   15.3  59.5    -6.7     47  0.2
  5750   11.1  52.0   155   21   11  -0.0  -0.0   14.5  58.0    -7.5     42  0.2
  5500   11.0  51.8   150   17    9  -5.4  -3.0   13.6  56.6    -8.4     38  0.2
  5250   10.1  50.2   140   14    7 -16.9  -9.3   12.0  53.6   -10.0     57  0.3
  5000    8.6  47.5   135   12    6 -22.3 -12.2    9.8  49.6   -12.3     95  0.5

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/22/2015 at 0900 MDT          |       03/22/2015 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +10.5  LI... +1.4               | K index... +8.0  LI... +1.5
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.4                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.4 -73.1  270  33 17   0.5   0.3 | -58.5 -73.3  265  38 19   0.5   0.3
 45000 -57.6 -71.7  275  40 20  -0.8  -0.5 | -57.8 -72.0  270  41 21  -0.9  -0.5
 40000 -61.5 -78.7  280  49 25  -2.6  -1.4 | -61.3 -78.3  280  51 26  -2.3  -1.3
 38000 -60.0 -76.0  285  51 26   5.9   3.2 | -59.7 -75.5  280  53 27   5.6   3.1
 36000 -56.4 -69.5  285  51 26   5.9   3.2 | -56.4 -69.5  280  52 27   5.6   3.1
 34000 -52.6 -62.7  290  51 26   7.7   4.2 | -52.7 -62.9  285  51 26   7.6   4.2
 32000 -47.9 -54.2  290  50 26   7.8   4.3 | -48.1 -54.6  285  50 26   7.7   4.2
 30000 -43.2 -45.8  290  48 25   8.0   4.4 | -43.4 -46.1  285  49 25   8.2   4.5
 29000 -40.9 -41.6  290  46 24   8.0   4.4 | -40.9 -41.6  290  47 24   8.2   4.5
 28000 -38.5 -37.3  290  44 22   8.0   4.4 | -38.5 -37.3  290  45 23   8.2   4.5
 27000 -35.6 -32.1  290  41 21   7.5   4.1 | -35.4 -31.7  290  42 22   8.1   4.5
 26000 -33.3 -27.9  290  38 20   7.6   4.1 | -33.0 -27.4  285  39 20   8.2   4.5
 25000 -31.1 -24.0  290  36 18   7.6   4.2 | -30.6 -23.1  280  37 19   8.2   4.5
 24000 -28.9 -20.0  290  33 17   5.9   3.2 | -28.3 -18.9  280  34 18   5.9   3.3
 23000 -27.2 -17.0  285  31 16   5.7   3.1 | -26.5 -15.7  280  32 16   5.9   3.2
 22000 -25.5 -13.9  280  29 15   5.7   3.2 | -24.8 -12.6  275  30 15   5.9   3.3
 21000 -23.6 -10.5  280  28 14   7.3   4.0 | -22.9  -9.2  275  27 14   6.7   3.7
 20000 -21.5  -6.7  275  25 13   7.2   3.9 | -20.9  -5.6  275  26 13   6.7   3.7
 19500 -20.4  -4.7  275  24 13   7.2   3.9 | -19.9  -3.8  270  25 13   6.7   3.7
 19000 -19.3  -2.7  275  23 12   7.1   3.9 | -18.9  -2.0  270  24 12   6.6   3.6
 18500 -18.3  -0.9  270  22 11   7.3   4.0 | -17.9  -0.2  270  23 12   7.2   4.0
 18000 -17.2   1.0  270  21 11   7.4   4.0 | -16.8   1.8  270  22 11   7.2   3.9
 17500 -16.1   3.0  270  20 10   7.8   4.3 | -15.8   3.6  270  20 11   7.3   4.0
 17000 -14.9   5.2  270  19 10   8.2   4.5 | -14.7   5.5  265  19 10   7.5   4.1
 16500 -13.7   7.3  265  18  9   8.2   4.5 | -13.5   7.7  265  18  9   7.7   4.2
 16000 -12.4   9.7  265  17  9   8.7   4.8 | -12.3   9.9  260  17  9   9.0   4.9
 15500 -11.2  11.8  265  16  8   8.7   4.8 | -11.0  12.2  260  16  8   8.9   4.9
 15000  -9.8  14.4  265  15  8   9.2   5.1 |  -9.7  14.5  260  16  8   8.5   4.7
 14500  -8.5  16.7  270  14  7   9.2   5.1 |  -8.4  16.9  260  15  8   8.5   4.7
 14000  -7.1  19.2  270  13  7   8.9   4.9 |  -7.2  19.0  260  14  7   8.6   4.7
 13500  -5.8  21.6  275  13  6   8.8   4.8 |  -5.9  21.4  260  13  7   8.7   4.8
 13000  -3.8  25.2  285  12  6   8.9   4.9 |  -4.0  24.8  265  11  6   8.5   4.7
 12500  -2.5  27.5  285  12  6   8.9   4.9 |  -2.8  27.0  265  11  6   8.5   4.6
 12000  -1.2  29.8  290  12  6   8.7   4.8 |  -1.5  29.3  270  11  6   9.0   4.9
 11500   0.1  32.2  290  12  6   8.8   4.8 |  -0.1  31.8  270  11  5   9.1   5.0
 11000   1.3  34.3  285  11  6   7.8   4.3 |   1.1  34.0  265  10  5   7.3   4.0
 10500   2.5  36.5  285  11  6   8.2   4.5 |   2.2  36.0  260  10  5   7.1   3.9
 10250   3.0  37.4  280  10  5   4.2   2.3 |   2.6  36.7  260  10  5   4.0   2.2
 10000   3.2  37.8  280  10  5   4.2   2.3 |   2.9  37.2  255  10  5   5.5   3.0
  9750   3.8  38.8  275   9  5   7.9   4.3 |   3.5  38.3  255   9  5   8.5   4.7
  9500   4.3  39.7  270   9  4   6.8   3.7 |   4.1  39.4  250   9  5   7.4   4.1
  9250   4.7  40.5  270   8  4   4.3   2.4 |   4.6  40.3  245   9  4   5.3   2.9
  9000   5.0  41.0  265   7  4   3.7   2.0 |   5.0  41.0  240   8  4   5.3   2.9
  8750   5.3  41.5  260   6  3   5.3   2.9 |   5.4  41.7  235   7  4   6.8   3.7
  8500   5.7  42.3  255   5  3   4.8   2.6 |   5.9  42.6  230   6  3   5.8   3.2
  8250   6.1  43.0  250   4  2   4.5   2.5 |   6.3  43.3  225   6  3   4.6   2.5
  8000   6.4  43.5  240   4  2   4.7   2.6 |   6.6  43.9  220   5  3   4.7   2.6
  7750   6.8  44.2  230   4  2   5.7   3.1 |   7.0  44.6  215   5  2   5.0   2.7
  7500   7.2  45.0  220   4  2   4.7   2.6 |   7.4  45.3  215   4  2   5.9   3.2
  7250   7.5  45.5  210   5  2   3.5   1.9 |   7.8  46.0  215   4  2   6.6   3.6
  7000   7.7  45.9  200   5  3   3.8   2.1 |   8.3  46.9  215   4  2   6.9   3.8
  6750   8.0  46.4  195   6  3   2.0   1.1 |   8.9  48.0  215   4  2   9.1   5.0
  6500   8.0  46.4  185   6  3  -1.1  -0.6 |   9.6  49.3  215   3  2  10.6   5.8
  6250   7.8  46.0  175   5  3  -3.1  -1.7 |  10.4  50.7  220   3  2  11.3   6.2
  6000   7.6  45.7  160   5  3   0.6   0.3 |  11.2  52.2  220   3  2   9.4   5.2
  5750   7.7  45.9  135   5  2  -1.7  -0.9 |  11.9  53.4  220   3  2  10.5   5.8
  5500   7.2  45.0  125   4  2  -7.9  -4.3 |  12.8  55.0  225   3  2  13.8   7.6
  5250   6.7  44.1  115   3  2  -2.7  -1.5 |  13.8  56.8  225   3  2  11.2   6.1
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           03/22/2015 at 1500 MDT          |       03/22/2015 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +11.4  LI... +1.2               | K index... +20.7  LI... -0.6
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.1                   | CAPE... +12.7  CIN... -16.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.5 -73.3  265  42 22   0.2   0.1 | -58.5 -73.3  270  45 23   0.3   0.2
 45000 -58.2 -72.8  270  48 25  -1.3  -0.7 | -58.0 -72.4  270  56 29  -1.4  -0.8
 40000 -62.6 -80.7  275  58 30  -2.8  -1.6 | -62.2 -80.0  270  62 32  -2.8  -1.5
 38000 -60.6 -77.1  275  58 30   6.8   3.7 | -60.6 -77.1  270  62 32   6.3   3.4
 36000 -56.5 -69.7  275  56 29   6.8   3.7 | -56.9 -70.4  275  59 30   6.3   3.4
 34000 -52.4 -62.3  275  54 28   7.1   3.9 | -52.9 -63.2  275  56 29   7.5   4.1
 32000 -48.1 -54.6  280  54 28   7.1   3.9 | -48.4 -55.1  275  54 28   7.5   4.1
 30000 -43.6 -46.5  285  52 27   8.5   4.6 | -43.6 -46.5  280  50 26   8.9   4.9
 29000 -41.1 -42.0  285  49 25   8.5   4.7 | -41.0 -41.8  275  46 24   8.9   4.9
 28000 -38.6 -37.5  285  46 24   8.5   4.7 | -38.3 -36.9  275  42 22   8.9   4.9
 27000 -35.4 -31.7  285  44 22   8.6   4.7 | -35.7 -32.3  275  39 20   8.6   4.7
 26000 -32.8 -27.0  280  42 22   8.6   4.7 | -32.5 -26.5  270  39 20   8.5   4.7
 25000 -30.3 -22.5  280  41 21   8.6   4.7 | -30.0 -22.0  270  39 20   8.5   4.7
 24000 -27.8 -18.0  275  40 20   6.5   3.6 | -27.6 -17.7  270  38 20   6.3   3.5
 23000 -25.9 -14.6  275  38 19   6.6   3.6 | -25.7 -14.3  270  38 19   6.4   3.5
 22000 -23.9 -11.0  270  36 19   6.6   3.6 | -23.8 -10.8  265  37 19   6.4   3.5
 21000 -22.0  -7.6  270  34 17   5.9   3.2 | -22.0  -7.6  265  36 19   5.7   3.1
 20000 -20.3  -4.5  265  31 16   5.9   3.2 | -20.2  -4.4  265  34 18   5.8   3.2
 19500 -19.4  -2.9  265  29 15   5.9   3.2 | -19.4  -2.9  260  33 17   5.8   3.2
 19000 -18.5  -1.3  265  28 14   5.8   3.2 | -18.5  -1.3  260  32 17   5.7   3.1
 18500 -17.5   0.5  265  26 13   7.3   4.0 | -17.6   0.3  260  31 16   6.9   3.8
 18000 -16.5   2.3  265  24 13   7.2   3.9 | -16.6   2.1  260  30 15   6.8   3.7
 17500 -15.4   4.3  265  23 12   7.4   4.1 | -15.6   3.9  255  28 15   7.9   4.4
 17000 -14.2   6.4  265  21 11   7.6   4.2 | -14.3   6.3  255  27 14   8.8   4.8
 16500 -13.1   8.4  265  20 10   7.7   4.2 | -13.0   8.6  255  25 13   8.8   4.9
 16000 -11.9  10.6  260  19 10   8.0   4.4 | -11.7  10.9  250  24 12   8.7   4.8
 15500 -10.7  12.7  260  18  9   8.0   4.4 | -10.4  13.3  245  23 12   8.8   4.8
 15000  -9.5  14.9  255  17  9   8.3   4.5 |  -9.2  15.4  245  22 11   8.5   4.7
 14500  -8.3  17.1  255  16  8   8.3   4.5 |  -7.9  17.8  240  20 10   8.5   4.7
 14000  -7.1  19.2  250  16  8   8.7   4.8 |  -6.7  19.9  235  19 10   9.3   5.1
 13500  -5.8  21.6  250  15  8   8.8   4.8 |  -5.3  22.5  235  17  9   9.5   5.2
 13000  -3.8  25.2  245  15  8   8.8   4.8 |  -3.2  26.2  230  15  8   8.6   4.7
 12500  -2.5  27.5  245  14  7   8.8   4.8 |  -1.9  28.6  225  14  7   8.7   4.8
 12000  -1.3  29.7  245  13  7   8.8   4.8 |  -0.6  30.9  225  13  7   8.9   4.9
 11500   0.1  32.2  245  13  7   8.9   4.9 |   0.7  33.3  220  12  6   9.0   4.9
 11000   1.3  34.3  245  12  6   8.5   4.7 |   2.0  35.6  220  11  5   8.0   4.4
 10500   2.6  36.7  245  12  6   7.5   4.1 |   3.2  37.8  215  10  5   8.3   4.6
 10250   3.1  37.6  245  12  6   5.4   3.0 |   3.8  38.8  215   9  5   5.8   3.2
 10000   3.5  38.3  245  11  6   7.9   4.3 |   4.1  39.4  210   9  4   6.9   3.8
  9750   4.2  39.6  245  11  6   9.9   5.4 |   4.8  40.6  205   8  4   9.9   5.4
  9500   4.9  40.8  245  10  5   9.0   4.9 |   5.5  41.9  205   8  4   9.1   5.0
  9250   5.5  41.9  245  10  5   6.8   3.7 |   6.2  43.2  200   7  4   7.5   4.1
  9000   6.0  42.8  245   9  5   6.7   3.7 |   6.7  44.1  200   7  4   6.9   3.8
  8750   6.6  43.9  240   8  4   8.1   4.4 |   7.2  45.0  195   6  3   7.9   4.3
  8500   7.1  44.8  240   7  3   7.6   4.1 |   7.8  46.0  190   6  3   7.5   4.1
  8250   7.7  45.9  235   6  3   7.0   3.8 |   8.3  46.9  185   5  3   7.0   3.8
  8000   8.2  46.8  235   5  2   7.6   4.2 |   8.9  48.0  185   5  2   7.3   4.0
  7750   8.8  47.8  230   4  2   8.1   4.5 |   9.4  48.9  185   4  2   7.5   4.1
  7500   9.4  48.9  230   4  2   9.3   5.1 |  10.0  50.0  185   3  2   8.5   4.7
  7250  10.2  50.4  230   4  2  10.6   5.8 |  10.7  51.3  190   3  2  10.1   5.5
  7000  10.9  51.6  230   4  2  10.0   5.5 |  11.4  52.5  190   3  2   9.6   5.3
  6750  11.7  53.1  235   4  2  10.1   5.5 |  12.1  53.8  195   3  2   9.1   5.0
  6500  12.4  54.3  235   4  2  10.7   5.9 |  12.8  55.0  195   3  2  10.0   5.5
  6250  13.3  55.9  235   4  2  11.4   6.3 |  13.6  56.5  195   3  2  10.8   5.9
  6000  14.1  57.4  235   4  2   9.8   5.4 |  14.4  57.9  200   3  2  10.0   5.5
  5750  14.8  58.6  235   3  2  10.9   6.0 |  15.1  59.2  200   3  1   8.5   4.7
  5500  15.7  60.3  240   3  2  13.6   7.5 |  15.7  60.3  205   3  1   8.1   4.5
  5250  16.7  62.1  240   4  2  11.4   6.3 |  16.3  61.3  205   3  1   8.6   4.7
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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