Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
UXUS97 KGJT 241320
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0620 MST Saturday, January 24, 2015

This forecast is for Saturday, January 24, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 47.2 F/8.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 122 ft/min (0.6 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 7910 ft MSL (3071 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 43.0 F/6.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6539 ft MSL (1700 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 01/25....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:27:00 / 17:24:30 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 57 min 30 sec (597 min 30 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:26:08 MST... 31.80 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 01/24/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 21484 ft MSL (16645 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 13115 ft MSL (8275 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +16.9
K index......................... -32.6

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -61.1 -78.0   350   36   19   2.4   1.3  100.4 212.7    53.5      M    M
 45000  -58.6 -73.5   005   44   22   4.7   2.6   79.9 175.7    44.8      M    M
 40000  -55.2 -67.4   015   50   26   4.8   2.7   62.0 143.7    36.4      M    M
 38000  -63.3 -81.9   010   58   30   8.2   4.5   39.8 103.6    22.6      M    M
 36000  -58.3 -72.9   020   58   30   8.4   4.6   38.4 101.2    22.3      M    M
 34000  -54.7 -66.5   020   81   42   1.1   0.6   35.3  95.6    20.7      M    M
 32000  -49.8 -57.6   020   83   43   9.3   5.1   33.9  93.1    20.2      M    M
 30000  -44.1 -47.4   020   72   37   9.3   5.1   33.7  92.7    20.6      M    M
 29000  -41.3 -42.3   020   70   36   9.3   5.1   33.5  92.4    20.7      M    M
 28000  -38.5 -37.3   020   67   35   9.5   5.2   33.3  91.9    20.8      M    M
 27000  -35.7 -32.3   025   65   33   9.5   5.2   33.1  91.6    20.9      M    M
 26000  -32.8 -27.0   025   62   32   9.5   5.2   33.0  91.5    21.1      M    M
 25000  -30.0 -22.0   025   60   31   8.1   4.4   33.0  91.4    21.3      M    M
 24000  -27.8 -18.0   030   54   28   5.0   2.8   32.1  89.8    20.9      M    M
 23000  -26.2 -15.2   030   49   25   8.2   4.5   30.4  86.8    19.8      M    M
 22000  -23.8 -10.8   035   43   22   8.0   4.4   29.7  85.5    19.4      M    M
 21000  -21.4  -6.5   035   38   20   7.6   4.1   29.1  84.4    19.2      M    M
 20000  -19.3  -2.7   040   32   17   5.6   3.1   27.3  81.1    17.9      M    M
 19500  -18.7  -1.7   030   30   15   3.0   1.6   26.3  79.3    17.1      M    M
 19000  -18.2  -0.8   015   28   15   4.4   2.4   25.1  77.3    16.2      M    M
 18500  -17.2   1.0   015   25   13   7.6   4.2   24.6  76.3    15.9      M    M
 18000  -16.1   3.0   015   22   11   4.5   2.5   24.2  75.6    15.6      M    M
 17500  -15.1   4.8   015   21   11  10.2   5.6   23.6  74.5    15.2      M    M
 17000  -13.7   7.3   015   19   10   9.3   5.1   23.5  74.4    15.2      M    M
 16500  -12.3   9.9   020   18    9   8.1   4.4   23.5  74.3    15.3      M    M
 16000  -11.2  11.8   020   17    9   7.0   3.9   23.0  73.5    15.0      M    M
 15500  -10.2  13.6   030   18    9   7.0   3.8   22.6  72.6    14.6      M    M
 15000   -9.1  15.6   040   19   10   7.0   3.8   22.1  71.8    14.3      M    M
 14500   -8.1  17.4   035   18    9   7.0   3.8   21.6  70.9    13.9      M    M
 14000   -7.1  19.2   030   18    9   7.2   3.9   21.2  70.1    13.6      M    M
 13500   -6.2  20.8   025   17    9   3.3   1.8   20.5  68.9    13.1      M    M
 13000   -5.8  21.6   020   16    8  -0.6  -0.3   19.4  66.9    12.1      M    M
 12500   -6.1  21.0   025    9    4  -0.8  -0.4   17.6  63.6    10.3      M    M
 12000   -5.8  21.6   045    2    1   7.6   4.2   16.4  61.6     9.2      M    M
 11500   -4.9  23.2   045    1    0   4.2   2.3   15.9  60.6     8.7      M    M
 11000   -4.5  23.9   225    1    0   2.3   1.2   14.6  58.3     7.7      M    M
 10500   -4.2  24.4   225    2    1   1.9   1.0   13.4  56.1     6.6      M    M
 10250   -4.1  24.6   225    3    2   1.6   0.9   12.8  55.0     6.0      M    M
 10000   -4.0  24.8   270    2    1   0.7   0.4   12.1  53.8     5.4      M    M
  9750   -4.1  24.6   335    2    1  -5.2  -2.8   11.2  52.2     4.6      M    M
  9500   -4.5  23.9   355    4    2  -1.4  -0.8   10.0  50.0     3.4      M    M
  9250   -4.2  24.4   360    7    3   5.3   2.9    9.5  49.1     3.0      M    M
  9000   -3.9  25.0   005    9    4   3.5   1.9    9.1  48.3     2.6      M    M
  8750   -3.6  25.5   010    7    4   3.9   2.1    8.6  47.5     2.1      M    M
  8500   -3.3  26.1   015    5    3   4.3   2.4    8.1  46.6     1.7      M    M
  8250   -3.0  26.6   030    3    2   2.2   1.2    7.7  45.8     1.3      M    M
  8000   -3.0  26.6   075    2    1  -3.0  -1.6    6.9  44.4     0.5      M    M
  7750   -3.3  26.1   075    3    2  -0.5  -0.3    5.9  42.6    -0.4    222  1.1
  7500   -3.1  26.4   075    5    3   3.7   2.0    5.3  41.6    -1.0    209  1.1
  7250   -2.8  27.0   070    7    4   3.3   1.8    4.8  40.7    -1.5    194  1.0
  7000   -2.6  27.3   070    9    4   3.4   1.9    4.4  39.8    -2.0    180  0.9
  6750   -2.3  27.9   070    8    4   3.4   1.8    3.9  38.9    -2.5    165  0.8
  6500   -2.1  28.2   075    8    4   3.4   1.9    3.4  38.1    -2.9    150  0.8
  6250   -1.8  28.8   080    7    4   3.2   1.7    2.9  37.2    -3.4    135  0.7
  6000   -1.6  29.1   085    6    3   4.1   2.3    2.4  36.3    -3.9    120  0.6
  5750   -1.3  29.7   105    6    3   0.6   0.4    1.9  35.5    -4.4    105  0.5
  5500   -1.8  28.8   130    7    4 -13.1  -7.2    0.8  33.4    -5.6    110  0.6
  5250   -3.0  26.6   145    9    5 -13.6  -7.5   -1.2  29.8    -7.6    140  0.7
  5000   -3.5  25.7   140    7    3   0.3   0.2   -2.4  27.6    -8.8    147  0.7

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           01/24/2015 at 0800 MST          |       01/24/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -14.8  LI... +8.1               | K index... -16.3  LI... +8.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.5 -76.9  360  33 17   3.1   1.7 | -60.5 -76.9  360  34 17   2.7   1.5
 45000 -56.0 -68.8  005  42 22  -0.3  -0.2 | -56.6 -69.9  355  49 25  -0.4  -0.2
 40000 -58.9 -74.0  010  42 22  -1.9  -1.0 | -59.2 -74.6  345  37 19  -1.7  -0.9
 38000 -58.5 -73.3  010  57 29   2.5   1.4 | -58.7 -73.7  360  57 29   2.2   1.2
 36000 -57.0 -70.6  015  80 41   2.5   1.4 | -57.4 -71.3  010  94 48   2.2   1.2
 34000 -54.4 -65.9  015  94 48   8.2   4.5 | -54.7 -66.5  010 119 61   9.1   5.0
 32000 -49.5 -57.1  015  89 46   8.3   4.5 | -49.2 -56.6  010 117 60   9.1   5.0
 30000 -44.4 -47.9  020  81 42   8.8   4.8 | -43.8 -46.8  010 109 56   8.9   4.9
 29000 -41.8 -43.2  020  73 38   8.8   4.8 | -41.1 -42.0  010  99 51   8.9   4.9
 28000 -39.1 -38.4  025  66 34   8.8   4.8 | -38.4 -37.1  010  88 45   8.9   4.9
 27000 -36.5 -33.7  025  59 30   8.9   4.9 | -35.8 -32.4  005  78 40   7.5   4.1
 26000 -33.8 -28.8  025  57 29   8.9   4.9 | -33.6 -28.5  005  66 34   7.6   4.2
 25000 -31.2 -24.2  025  54 28   8.9   4.9 | -31.3 -24.3  005  54 28   7.6   4.2
 24000 -28.5 -19.3  025  51 26   8.1   4.4 | -28.9 -20.0  360  43 22   9.1   5.0
 23000 -26.2 -15.2  020  43 22   7.7   4.2 | -26.0 -14.8  360  40 21   9.6   5.3
 22000 -23.9 -11.0  015  36 18   7.7   4.2 | -22.4  -8.3  360  36 19   9.5   5.2
 21000 -21.1  -6.0  010  29 15   7.1   3.9 | -20.0  -4.0  355  35 18   6.9   3.8
 20000 -19.0  -2.2  005  28 15   7.1   3.9 | -18.0  -0.4  350  36 19   6.8   3.7
 19500 -17.9  -0.2  005  28 14   7.1   3.9 | -17.0   1.4  350  36 19   6.8   3.7
 19000 -16.8   1.8  005  27 14   6.9   3.8 | -16.0   3.2  345  37 19   6.6   3.6
 18500 -15.9   3.4  005  27 14   5.9   3.2 | -15.1   4.8  345  37 19   5.7   3.1
 18000 -15.0   5.0  005  27 14   6.0   3.3 | -14.2   6.4  345  37 19   5.7   3.1
 17500 -14.1   6.6  360  28 14   5.7   3.1 | -13.3   8.1  345  36 18   6.3   3.4
 17000 -13.2   8.2  360  27 14   5.7   3.1 | -12.3   9.9  345  34 18   6.4   3.5
 16500 -12.4   9.7  360  27 14   6.1   3.3 | -11.3  11.7  345  32 17   6.0   3.3
 16000 -11.4  11.5  360  26 13   6.5   3.6 | -10.4  13.3  345  30 16   5.5   3.0
 15500 -10.4  13.3  360  25 13   6.6   3.6 |  -9.6  14.7  345  28 15   5.5   3.0
 15000  -9.4  15.1  360  24 12   7.0   3.8 |  -8.7  16.3  345  27 14   5.4   3.0
 14500  -8.3  17.1  360  22 12   7.0   3.8 |  -7.9  17.8  345  25 13   5.4   3.0
 14000  -7.3  18.9  360  21 11   7.2   3.9 |  -7.1  19.2  345  24 12   5.8   3.2
 13500  -6.2  20.8  360  20 10   7.4   4.0 |  -6.3  20.7  345  23 12   5.7   3.2
 13000  -5.3  22.5  360  19 10   4.9   2.7 |  -5.4  22.3  345  22 11   5.9   3.2
 12500  -4.6  23.7  360  18  9   5.1   2.8 |  -4.5  23.9  345  21 11   6.1   3.3
 12000  -4.0  24.8  360  17  9   1.7   0.9 |  -3.8  25.2  350  20 10   4.1   2.3
 11500  -3.9  25.0  360  15  8   1.5   0.8 |  -3.2  26.2  350  18  9   4.1   2.3
 11000  -3.7  25.3  360  14  7   2.8   1.5 |  -2.7  27.1  350  17  9   2.8   1.5
 10500  -3.3  26.1  360  12  6   3.3   1.8 |  -2.3  27.9  350  14  7   3.0   1.7
 10250  -3.1  26.4  355  11  6   2.0   1.1 |  -2.2  28.0  345  13  7   1.5   0.8
 10000  -3.1  26.4  355  11  6   0.5   0.3 |  -2.1  28.2  345  12  6  -0.1  -0.1
  9750  -3.0  26.6  355  10  5   1.0   0.6 |  -2.2  28.0  345  11  6   0.5   0.3
  9500  -3.0  26.6  355   9  5   1.4   0.7 |  -2.1  28.2  345  10  5   0.8   0.4
  9250  -2.9  26.8  360   9  4   0.2   0.1 |  -2.1  28.2  345   8  4  -0.4  -0.2
  9000  -2.9  26.8  360   8  4  -0.8  -0.4 |  -2.2  28.0  350   7  4  -1.4  -0.7
  8750  -3.1  26.4  005   7  3  -0.0  -0.0 |  -2.3  27.9  350   6  3  -1.2  -0.7
  8500  -2.9  26.8  020   5  3   0.7   0.4 |  -2.4  27.7  360   4  2  -0.7  -0.4
  8250  -2.8  27.0  035   4  2   1.1   0.6 |  -2.4  27.7  010   3  2   0.7   0.4
  8000  -2.7  27.1  050   4  2   1.4   0.7 |  -2.4  27.7  020   3  1   0.7   0.4
  7750  -2.6  27.3  060   4  2   1.3   0.7 |  -2.3  27.9  040   2  1   1.9   1.0
  7500  -2.5  27.5  070   5  2   1.7   0.9 |  -2.1  28.2  055   2  1   1.8   1.0
  7250  -2.3  27.9  080   4  2   1.8   1.0 |  -2.0  28.4  075   2  1   0.5   0.3
  7000  -2.1  28.2  085   4  2   1.9   1.1 |  -1.9  28.6  095   2  1   0.7   0.4
  6750  -2.0  28.4  095   4  2   1.3   0.7 |  -1.8  28.8  115   2  1   1.2   0.7
  6500  -1.9  28.6  105   4  2  -0.1  -0.0 |  -1.7  28.9  125   2  1   2.8   1.5
  6250  -2.0  28.4  115   4  2  -0.5  -0.3 |  -1.5  29.3  130   3  1   2.7   1.5
  6000  -2.0  28.4  125   4  2  -0.4  -0.2 |  -1.3  29.7  135   3  1   4.5   2.5
  5750  -2.2  28.0  130   4  2  -7.2  -4.0 |  -0.7  30.7  135   3  2  11.3   6.2
  5500  -3.3  26.1  120   4  2 -18.6 -10.2 |   0.3  32.5  130   3  1  16.4   9.0
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           01/24/2015 at 1400 MST          |       01/24/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -0.9  LI... +9.5                | K index... +5.6  LI... +7.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -5.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.9 -77.6  355  23 12   2.7   1.5 | -59.9 -75.8  355  20 10   3.5   1.9
 45000 -57.1 -70.8  355  31 16  -2.8  -1.5 | -55.0 -67.0  350  29 15  -4.3  -2.4
 40000 -60.4 -76.7  350  46 24  -2.2  -1.2 | -60.1 -76.2  350  55 28  -3.5  -1.9
 38000 -59.9 -75.8  360  56 29   2.9   1.6 | -59.9 -75.8  360  58 30   3.0   1.6
 36000 -58.1 -72.6  015  70 36   2.9   1.6 | -58.2 -72.8  015  59 30   3.0   1.6
 34000 -55.3 -67.5  020  82 42   9.6   5.2 | -55.5 -67.9  020  62 32   8.7   4.8
 32000 -49.5 -57.1  015  80 41   9.7   5.3 | -50.1 -58.2  015  62 32   8.9   4.9
 30000 -43.0 -45.4  015  80 41   9.1   5.0 | -44.0 -47.2  005  62 32   9.5   5.2
 29000 -40.3 -40.5  015  81 41   9.1   5.0 | -41.1 -42.0  005  61 31   9.5   5.2
 28000 -37.6 -35.7  015  81 42   9.1   5.0 | -38.3 -36.9  360  60 31   9.5   5.2
 27000 -35.0 -31.0  015  80 41   7.5   4.1 | -35.5 -31.9  360  59 30   8.7   4.8
 26000 -32.7 -26.9  010  76 39   7.7   4.2 | -32.9 -27.2  360  57 29   8.7   4.8
 25000 -30.4 -22.7  010  73 37   7.7   4.2 | -30.3 -22.5  360  55 28   8.7   4.8
 24000 -28.1 -18.6  010  69 35   7.8   4.3 | -27.7 -17.9  360  53 28   8.3   4.6
 23000 -25.8 -14.4  005  64 33   7.9   4.3 | -25.3 -13.5  355  53 27   8.3   4.5
 22000 -23.5 -10.3  005  59 30   7.9   4.3 | -22.8  -9.0  355  53 27   8.3   4.5
 21000 -21.1  -6.0  360  54 28   8.7   4.8 | -20.3  -4.5  350  52 27   8.6   4.7
 20000 -18.5  -1.3  360  49 25   8.7   4.8 | -17.8  -0.0  350  48 25   8.5   4.7
 19500 -17.2   1.0  355  46 24   8.7   4.8 | -16.5   2.3  345  46 24   8.6   4.7
 19000 -15.9   3.4  355  43 22   8.9   4.9 | -15.2   4.6  345  45 23   8.7   4.8
 18500 -14.7   5.5  355  40 21   6.7   3.7 | -14.0   6.8  340  44 22   7.5   4.1
 18000 -13.2   8.2  350  35 18   6.9   3.8 | -12.4   9.7  335  42 22   7.6   4.2
 17500 -12.3   9.9  350  32 17   6.1   3.3 | -11.4  11.5  335  41 21   5.8   3.2
 17000 -11.4  11.5  345  31 16   6.1   3.3 | -10.5  13.1  335  40 21   5.7   3.1
 16500 -10.5  13.1  340  30 15   4.5   2.5 |  -9.7  14.5  330  39 20   4.7   2.6
 16000 -10.0  14.0  340  30 16   3.4   1.9 |  -9.2  15.4  335  36 19   3.6   2.0
 15500  -9.5  14.9  340  31 16   3.8   2.1 |  -8.7  16.3  335  34 17   3.7   2.0
 15000  -8.8  16.2  335  30 15   5.5   3.0 |  -8.1  17.4  335  32 16   4.5   2.5
 14500  -7.9  17.8  335  28 14   5.5   3.0 |  -7.5  18.5  335  29 15   4.6   2.5
 14000  -7.1  19.2  335  26 14   5.0   2.7 |  -6.9  19.6  335  28 14   3.7   2.0
 13500  -6.4  20.5  335  25 13   5.0   2.8 |  -6.3  20.7  335  26 14   3.8   2.1
 13000  -5.6  21.9  335  23 12   4.7   2.6 |  -5.8  21.6  335  24 13   3.6   2.0
 12500  -4.9  23.2  335  22 11   4.7   2.6 |  -5.3  22.5  335  22 11   3.6   2.0
 12000  -4.3  24.3  335  20 10   4.7   2.6 |  -4.7  23.5  335  19 10   4.4   2.4
 11500  -3.6  25.5  335  19 10   4.8   2.6 |  -4.0  24.8  340  18  9   4.5   2.5
 11000  -3.0  26.6  335  17  9   3.5   1.9 |  -3.4  25.9  345  16  8   3.5   1.9
 10500  -2.5  27.5  335  16  8   3.9   2.1 |  -2.9  26.8  345  15  8   3.6   2.0
 10250  -2.2  28.0  335  15  8   2.3   1.3 |  -2.6  27.3  345  14  7   2.6   1.5
 10000  -2.1  28.2  335  14  7   1.1   0.6 |  -2.4  27.7  345  13  7   1.7   1.0
  9750  -2.0  28.4  335  13  7   2.2   1.2 |  -2.3  27.9  345  12  6   2.3   1.3
  9500  -1.9  28.6  335  11  6   2.3   1.3 |  -2.1  28.2  345  10  5   2.6   1.4
  9250  -1.7  28.9  335  10  5   1.2   0.7 |  -1.9  28.6  345   9  5   1.8   1.0
  9000  -1.7  28.9  335   9  5   0.4   0.2 |  -1.8  28.8  345   8  4   1.1   0.6
  8750  -1.7  28.9  335   8  4   0.7   0.4 |  -1.7  28.9  340   7  3   1.3   0.7
  8500  -1.6  29.1  335   6  3   0.8   0.5 |  -1.6  29.1  340   5  3   1.5   0.8
  8250  -1.6  29.1  335   5  2   1.1   0.6 |  -1.5  29.3  340   4  2   2.2   1.2
  8000  -1.5  29.3  340   4  2   1.1   0.6 |  -1.3  29.7  345   3  1   2.5   1.4
  7750  -1.4  29.5  345   3  1   1.4   0.8 |  -1.1  30.0  350   2  1   2.3   1.2
  7500  -1.3  29.7  350   2  1   2.4   1.3 |  -1.0  30.2  005   1  1   2.9   1.6
  7250  -1.1  30.0  350   1  1   2.9   1.6 |  -0.7  30.7  005   1  0   3.6   2.0
  7000  -0.9  30.4  335   1  0   2.2   1.2 |  -0.5  31.1  000   0  0   3.2   1.8
  6750  -0.7  30.7  000   0  0   4.4   2.4 |  -0.2  31.6  000   0  0   4.2   2.3
  6500  -0.2  31.6  225   1  0   7.4   4.1 |   0.2  32.4  000   0  0   6.0   3.3
  6250   0.3  32.5  230   1  1   7.2   4.0 |   0.6  33.1  000   0  0   6.2   3.4
  6000   0.9  33.6  235   1  1   8.1   4.4 |   1.0  33.8  205   1  0   6.7   3.7
  5750   1.6  34.9  230   1  1  12.2   6.7 |   1.6  34.9  210   1  0   6.9   3.8
  5500   2.7  36.9  235   1  1  16.5   9.1 |   2.0  35.6  220   1  0   5.2   2.9
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.