Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 211338
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0638 MST Wednesday, January 21, 2015

This forecast is for Wednesday, January 21, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 43.2 F/6.2 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 6200 ft MSL (1361 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 39.0 F/4.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5018 ft MSL (179 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 01/22..... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:28:50 / 17:21:07 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 52 min 16 sec (592 min 16 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:25:22 MST... 31.10 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 01/21/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 4974 ft MSL (135 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 6122 ft MSL (1283 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14027 ft MSL (9188 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10047 ft MSL (5208 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +8.0
K index......................... +4.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -58.1 -72.6   295   38   20   5.5   3.0  108.9 228.0    59.1      M    M
 45000  -54.1 -65.4   295   38   20  -2.7  -1.5   89.5 193.2    51.7      M    M
 40000  -54.1 -65.4   275   53   27   5.6   3.0   65.9 150.7    40.1      M    M
 38000  -53.7 -64.7   270   53   27  -2.7  -1.5   57.5 135.6    35.6      M    M
 36000  -55.3 -67.5   265   59   30  -7.4  -4.0   46.5 115.8    29.1      M    M
 34000  -58.0 -72.4   260   65   33   0.2   0.1   34.2  93.6    21.2      M    M
 32000  -56.7 -70.1   260   58   30   6.2   3.4   26.6  79.9    16.4      M    M
 30000  -51.6 -60.9   265   53   27   9.0   4.9   25.6  78.2    16.1      M    M
 29000  -48.9 -56.0   260   54   28   9.0   4.9   25.3  77.6    16.1      M    M
 28000  -46.5 -51.7   255   55   28   7.2   3.9   24.7  76.5    15.9      M    M
 27000  -44.3 -47.7   260   49   25   7.1   3.9   23.6  74.5    15.2      M    M
 26000  -42.2 -44.0   260   44   22   7.1   3.9   22.6  72.7    14.6      M    M
 25000  -40.1 -40.2   265   38   20   7.1   3.9   21.8  71.2    14.1      M    M
 24000  -37.9 -36.2   270   35   18   7.1   3.9   20.7  69.3    13.4      M    M
 23000  -35.8 -32.4   275   33   17   7.1   3.9   19.7  67.5    12.8      M    M
 22000  -33.7 -28.7   280   31   16   6.9   3.8   18.7  65.7    12.1      M    M
 21000  -31.2 -24.2   285   29   15   8.6   4.7   18.2  64.7    11.8      M    M
 20000  -28.7 -19.7   290   27   14   8.6   4.7   17.8  64.1    11.7      M    M
 19500  -27.4 -17.3   290   27   14   8.6   4.7   17.6  63.7    11.6      M    M
 19000  -26.1 -15.0   295   27   14   8.6   4.7   17.4  63.4    11.5      M    M
 18500  -24.8 -12.6   290   27   14   8.7   4.7   17.2  63.0    11.3      M    M
 18000  -23.0  -9.4   290   27   14   7.3   4.0   16.8  62.2    11.0      M    M
 17500  -22.0  -7.6   285   27   14   7.2   4.0   16.3  61.4    10.7      M    M
 17000  -20.9  -5.6   285   26   14   7.0   3.9   15.9  60.6    10.3      M    M
 16500  -19.9  -3.8   295   24   12   7.4   4.1   15.4  59.6     9.9      M    M
 16000  -18.5  -1.3   300   22   11   9.9   5.4   15.3  59.5     9.9      M    M
 15500  -17.1   1.2   300   23   12   8.9   4.9   15.2  59.4    10.0      M    M
 15000  -15.8   3.6   305   23   12   8.6   4.7   15.0  59.0     9.8      M    M
 14500  -14.5   5.9   305   24   12   8.3   4.5   14.8  58.7     9.7      M    M
 14000  -13.3   8.1   305   24   12   8.1   4.4   14.5  58.1     9.5      M    M
 13500  -11.8  10.8   305   21   11   8.5   4.7   14.5  58.1     9.6      M    M
 13000  -11.0  12.2   310   18    9   3.8   2.1   13.7  56.7     9.0      M    M
 12500  -10.5  13.1   310   15    8   4.2   2.3   12.7  54.9     8.1      M    M
 12000  -10.2  13.6   305   13    7  -3.2  -1.8   11.4  52.5     6.9      M    M
 11500  -11.4  11.5   310   11    5   0.9   0.5    8.9  47.9     4.3      M    M
 11000  -10.3  13.5   320    9    4   7.2   3.9    8.5  47.2     3.9      M    M
 10500   -9.4  15.1   340    7    4   5.9   3.2    7.9  46.2     3.4      M    M
 10250   -8.8  16.2   350    6    3  10.7   5.9    7.8  46.0     3.3      M    M
 10000   -8.1  17.4   360    6    3   8.1   4.5    7.8  46.1     3.3      M    M
  9750   -7.6  18.3   005    6    3   5.6   3.1    7.5  45.5     3.0      M    M
  9500   -7.1  19.2   010    6    3   7.1   3.9    7.3  45.1     2.8      M    M
  9250   -6.6  20.1   015    7    3   6.6   3.6    7.0  44.7     2.6      M    M
  9000   -6.1  21.0   020    7    4   6.7   3.7    6.8  44.2     2.4      M    M
  8750   -5.6  21.9   025    7    4   6.7   3.7    6.5  43.8     2.2      M    M
  8500   -5.1  22.8   030    8    4   6.7   3.7    6.3  43.3     2.0      M    M
  8250   -4.6  23.7   035    8    4   6.7   3.7    6.1  42.9     1.7      M    M
  8000   -4.1  24.6   040    9    5   6.7   3.7    5.8  42.5     1.5      M    M
  7750   -3.6  25.5   040    8    4   7.0   3.8    5.6  42.1     1.3      M    M
  7500   -3.0  26.6   040    8    4   7.2   3.9    5.4  41.7     1.1      M    M
  7250   -2.5  27.5   035    7    4   7.1   3.9    5.2  41.4     0.9      M    M
  7000   -2.0  28.4   035    6    3   7.2   3.9    5.0  41.0     0.7      M    M
  6750   -1.5  29.3   025    6    3   7.2   3.9    4.8  40.7     0.5      M    M
  6500   -0.9  30.4   015    6    3   7.2   3.9    4.6  40.3     0.3      M    M
  6250   -0.4  31.3   005    6    3   7.2   3.9    4.4  39.9     0.1      M    M
  6000    0.1  32.2   355    6    3   7.2   4.0    4.2  39.6    -0.1      7  0.0
  5750    0.6  33.1   350    5    3   7.1   3.9    4.0  39.2    -0.3      M    M
  5500    1.2  34.2   355    4    2   7.6   4.2    3.8  38.9    -0.5      M    M
  5250    1.6  34.9   360    3    2   0.9   0.5    3.5  38.3    -0.9      M    M
  5000    0.9  33.6   010    2    1 -18.7 -10.3    2.2  35.9    -2.2      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           01/21/2015 at 0800 MST          |       01/21/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -4.1  LI... +4.5                | K index... -10.5  LI... +4.9
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.3 -69.3  300  35 18   1.4   0.8 | -56.2 -69.2  305  34 17   1.6   0.9
 45000 -54.0 -65.2  300  40 21   1.4   0.8 | -53.6 -64.5  305  37 19   1.6   0.9
 40000 -54.2 -65.6  285  42 22  -0.4  -0.2 | -53.5 -64.3  290  36 18  -0.1  -0.1
 38000 -54.5 -66.1  285  43 22  -1.2  -0.7 | -53.5 -64.3  285  36 18  -0.5  -0.3
 36000 -55.2 -67.4  275  46 24  -1.1  -0.6 | -53.8 -64.8  290  38 19  -0.5  -0.2
 34000 -55.9 -68.6  275  48 25  -1.0  -0.6 | -54.1 -65.4  290  40 20  -0.4  -0.2
 32000 -54.9 -66.8  270  51 26   2.6   1.4 | -53.5 -64.3  280  43 22   1.3   0.7
 30000 -53.2 -63.8  265  53 27   4.0   2.2 | -52.7 -62.9  270  49 25   1.6   0.9
 29000 -50.8 -59.4  270  52 27   8.6   4.7 | -50.9 -59.6  270  48 25   7.1   3.9
 28000 -48.2 -54.8  270  50 26   8.5   4.7 | -48.8 -55.8  270  46 24   7.0   3.9
 27000 -45.7 -50.3  270  49 25   8.5   4.7 | -46.7 -52.1  275  44 23   7.0   3.9
 26000 -43.3 -45.9  270  46 24   7.6   4.2 | -44.5 -48.1  275  41 21   7.6   4.2
 25000 -41.0 -41.8  275  42 22   7.6   4.2 | -42.2 -44.0  285  38 19   7.6   4.2
 24000 -38.7 -37.7  285  38 20   7.6   4.2 | -39.9 -39.8  290  35 18   7.6   4.2
 23000 -36.4 -33.5  290  36 18   8.1   4.4 | -37.6 -35.7  300  34 17   8.4   4.6
 22000 -34.0 -29.2  295  34 17   8.1   4.4 | -35.0 -31.0  305  35 18   8.4   4.6
 21000 -31.5 -24.7  300  33 17   8.1   4.5 | -32.5 -26.5  310  37 19   8.4   4.6
 20000 -29.1 -20.4  305  31 16   7.9   4.4 | -29.9 -21.8  315  38 20   8.6   4.7
 19500 -27.9 -18.2  310  31 16   8.0   4.4 | -28.6 -19.5  315  38 20   8.6   4.7
 19000 -26.7 -16.1  310  30 16   8.0   4.4 | -27.3 -17.1  315  38 20   8.6   4.7
 18500 -25.5 -13.9  315  30 15   7.9   4.4 | -26.0 -14.8  315  39 20   8.6   4.7
 18000 -24.3 -11.7  320  30 15   8.1   4.4 | -24.7 -12.5  315  38 20   8.7   4.8
 17500 -23.1  -9.6  320  29 15   8.1   4.4 | -23.4 -10.1  315  38 19   8.7   4.8
 17000 -21.9  -7.4  320  29 15   8.0   4.4 | -22.1  -7.8  315  37 19   8.2   4.5
 16500 -20.7  -5.3  320  28 14   7.9   4.4 | -21.0  -5.8  315  35 18   7.8   4.3
 16000 -19.5  -3.1  320  27 14   8.1   4.4 | -19.8  -3.6  315  33 17   7.7   4.2
 15500 -18.3  -0.9  325  26 13   8.5   4.6 | -18.7  -1.7  315  31 16   7.1   3.9
 15000 -17.0   1.4  325  25 13   8.5   4.6 | -17.1   1.2  315  28 14   6.7   3.7
 14500 -15.2   4.6  325  23 12   7.8   4.3 | -16.2   2.8  320  25 13   6.4   3.5
 14000 -14.1   6.6  330  22 11   6.9   3.8 | -15.2   4.6  320  23 12   6.2   3.4
 13500 -13.2   8.2  330  21 11   5.7   3.1 | -14.3   6.3  320  20 10   5.9   3.2
 13000 -12.3   9.9  335  19 10   3.9   2.1 | -13.4   7.9  325  17  9   4.8   2.6
 12500 -12.2  10.0  340  16  8   0.8   0.4 | -13.0   8.6  330  13  7   2.8   1.5
 12000 -12.2  10.0  345  12  6   1.8   1.0 | -12.6   9.3  335   9  5   3.0   1.7
 11500 -11.8  10.8  355   9  4   3.4   1.9 | -12.2  10.0  340   6  3   3.4   1.9
 11000 -11.3  11.7  005   6  3   5.1   2.8 | -11.8  10.8  350   4  2   5.2   2.9
 10500 -10.3  13.5  015   6  3   7.1   3.9 | -10.7  12.7  360   5  2   7.4   4.1
 10250  -9.8  14.4  020   7  3   6.3   3.5 | -10.2  13.6  360   5  3   6.1   3.4
 10000  -9.5  14.9  025   7  4   3.5   1.9 |  -9.8  14.4  005   6  3   4.1   2.2
  9750  -9.2  15.4  030   7  4   3.9   2.1 |  -9.5  14.9  010   6  3   6.2   3.4
  9500  -8.9  16.0  030   8  4   5.1   2.8 |  -8.9  16.0  015   7  4   7.9   4.3
  9250  -8.5  16.7  035   9  4   5.2   2.9 |  -8.4  16.9  020   8  4   7.0   3.8
  9000  -8.1  17.4  035   9  5   7.0   3.8 |  -7.9  17.8  020   9  5   6.4   3.5
  8750  -7.4  18.7  040  10  5   8.9   4.9 |  -7.4  18.7  025  10  5   6.9   3.8
  8500  -6.7  19.9  040  11  6   9.8   5.4 |  -6.8  19.8  030  11  6   7.3   4.0
  8250  -6.0  21.2  045  12  6   8.1   4.5 |  -6.3  20.7  035  12  6   6.8   3.7
  8000  -5.5  22.1  045  12  6   6.8   3.7 |  -5.8  21.6  035  12  6   6.4   3.5
  7750  -5.0  23.0  045  12  6   6.4   3.5 |  -5.3  22.5  035  12  6   6.6   3.6
  7500  -4.5  23.9  045  12  6   5.8   3.2 |  -4.8  23.4  035  12  6   6.8   3.7
  7250  -4.1  24.6  045  13  6   6.1   3.4 |  -4.3  24.3  035  11  6   7.3   4.0
  7000  -3.6  25.5  045  13  7   6.1   3.4 |  -3.8  25.2  030  11  5   7.3   4.0
  6750  -3.2  26.2  040  13  7   6.1   3.4 |  -3.3  26.1  030  10  5   7.9   4.3
  6500  -2.7  27.1  040  13  6   6.1   3.3 |  -2.6  27.3  025   9  5   9.7   5.3
  6250  -2.3  27.9  040  11  6   5.2   2.8 |  -1.9  28.6  025   9  5  10.8   5.9
  6000  -1.9  28.6  035  10  5   8.0   4.4 |  -1.1  30.0  025   8  4   9.6   5.3
  5750  -1.3  29.7  035   7  4   4.6   2.5 |  -0.4  31.3  025   8  4   9.4   5.1
  5500  -1.3  29.7  035   6  3  -1.9  -1.0 |   0.3  32.5  025   8  4  10.2   5.6
  5250  -1.4  29.5  035   5  3   3.3   1.8 |   1.0  33.8  020   8  4   9.5   5.2
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           01/21/2015 at 1400 MST          |       01/21/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -13.8  LI... +5.1               | K index... -11.4  LI... +4.5
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.8                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.9
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.7 -68.3  305  33 17   1.5   0.8 | -55.7 -68.3  310  32 17   1.8   1.0
 45000 -53.5 -64.3  310  41 21   1.5   0.8 | -53.0 -63.4  320  37 19   1.8   1.0
 40000 -52.8 -63.0  300  36 18   0.4   0.2 | -52.2 -62.0  315  34 18   0.4   0.2
 38000 -52.6 -62.7  295  34 18   0.1   0.0 | -52.0 -61.6  310  33 17   0.5   0.3
 36000 -52.5 -62.5  300  35 18   0.1   0.0 | -51.7 -61.1  320  35 18   0.5   0.3
 34000 -52.5 -62.5  310  37 19   0.1   0.1 | -51.4 -60.5  325  38 20   0.5   0.3
 32000 -51.8 -61.2  300  40 20   1.2   0.7 | -50.4 -58.7  325  38 19   1.9   1.0
 30000 -51.1 -60.0  295  42 22   0.7   0.4 | -49.3 -56.7  320  36 18   1.6   0.9
 29000 -49.8 -57.6  290  43 22   5.3   2.9 | -48.2 -54.8  315  35 18   4.4   2.4
 28000 -48.3 -54.9  285  44 23   5.2   2.9 | -46.9 -52.4  315  34 17   4.4   2.4
 27000 -46.7 -52.1  285  44 23   5.3   2.9 | -45.5 -49.9  310  33 17   4.4   2.4
 26000 -44.8 -48.6  280  45 23   7.6   4.2 | -44.0 -47.2  310  32 17   6.7   3.7
 25000 -42.6 -44.7  285  43 22   7.5   4.1 | -42.1 -43.8  310  32 17   6.5   3.6
 24000 -40.4 -40.7  285  42 22   7.5   4.1 | -40.1 -40.2  305  32 16   6.5   3.6
 23000 -38.0 -36.4  290  41 21   8.2   4.5 | -38.1 -36.6  305  32 16   7.1   3.9
 22000 -35.6 -32.1  295  41 21   8.2   4.5 | -36.0 -32.8  310  31 16   7.0   3.9
 21000 -33.1 -27.6  300  42 22   8.1   4.5 | -33.9 -29.0  310  31 16   7.0   3.9
 20000 -30.6 -23.1  305  42 21   8.5   4.7 | -31.8 -25.2  310  30 15   6.6   3.6
 19500 -29.3 -20.7  305  41 21   8.5   4.7 | -30.8 -23.4  310  30 15   6.6   3.6
 19000 -28.1 -18.6  305  41 21   8.5   4.7 | -29.9 -21.8  310  29 15   6.6   3.6
 18500 -26.8 -16.2  310  41 21   8.6   4.7 | -28.9 -20.0  315  29 15   6.6   3.6
 18000 -25.6 -14.1  310  40 21   7.4   4.1 | -27.9 -18.2  315  28 15   6.2   3.4
 17500 -24.5 -12.1  310  38 20   7.3   4.0 | -27.0 -16.6  315  27 14   6.0   3.3
 17000 -23.4 -10.1  315  36 19   6.9   3.8 | -26.1 -15.0  320  25 13   5.7   3.1
 16500 -22.4  -8.3  315  34 17   6.5   3.6 | -25.3 -13.5  320  23 12   5.0   2.7
 16000 -21.4  -6.5  315  31 16   6.4   3.5 | -24.6 -12.3  325  21 11   4.9   2.7
 15500 -20.1  -4.2  320  27 14   5.6   3.1 | -23.3  -9.9  330  18  9   6.2   3.4
 15000 -19.3  -2.7  320  24 12   5.9   3.2 | -22.3  -8.1  335  16  8   6.7   3.7
 14500 -18.4  -1.1  320  22 11   6.3   3.4 | -21.2  -6.2  335  15  8   7.5   4.1
 14000 -17.4   0.7  315  20 10   6.3   3.5 | -20.1  -4.2  335  14  7   7.2   4.0
 13500 -16.5   2.3  320  18  9   6.2   3.4 | -19.2  -2.6  340  13  7   6.4   3.5
 13000 -15.6   3.9  320  15  8   5.8   3.2 | -18.2  -0.8  345  13  7   6.4   3.5
 12500 -14.9   5.2  320  12  6   4.6   2.5 | -17.3   0.9  345  13  7   6.4   3.5
 12000 -14.2   6.4  325   9  5   4.7   2.6 | -16.3   2.7  350  13  7   6.8   3.7
 11500 -13.6   7.5  330   8  4   4.7   2.6 | -15.2   4.6  355  14  7   7.7   4.2
 11000 -12.9   8.8  340   7  4   6.0   3.3 | -14.1   6.6  360  15  8   7.8   4.3
 10500 -11.8  10.8  350   8  4   7.8   4.3 | -12.9   8.8  010  17  9   8.1   4.5
 10250 -11.2  11.8  350   9  5   6.8   3.7 | -12.3   9.9  010  18 10   7.0   3.8
 10000 -10.8  12.6  355   9  5   4.9   2.7 | -11.9  10.6  015  20 10   4.8   2.6
  9750 -10.4  13.3  005  10  5   6.9   3.8 | -11.5  11.3  015  20 10   8.0   4.4
  9500  -9.8  14.4  010  11  6   8.8   4.8 | -10.7  12.7  015  20 11  11.2   6.1
  9250  -9.2  15.4  015  12  6   7.8   4.3 |  -9.9  14.2  020  21 11   9.2   5.0
  9000  -8.6  16.5  015  13  7   7.5   4.1 |  -9.3  15.3  020  21 11   7.6   4.2
  8750  -8.1  17.4  020  13  7   8.7   4.8 |  -8.7  16.3  020  21 11   8.9   4.9
  8500  -7.4  18.7  020  13  7   9.4   5.2 |  -8.0  17.6  020  20 10  10.1   5.5
  8250  -6.7  19.9  020  13  7   9.4   5.2 |  -7.3  18.9  020  19 10   9.5   5.2
  8000  -6.0  21.2  020  13  7   9.7   5.3 |  -6.6  20.1  020  19 10   9.3   5.1
  7750  -5.3  22.5  020  13  7   9.8   5.4 |  -5.9  21.4  020  19 10   9.6   5.3
  7500  -4.5  23.9  020  13  7  10.0   5.5 |  -5.2  22.6  020  18  9   9.6   5.3
  7250  -3.8  25.2  020  13  7  10.1   5.5 |  -4.5  23.9  020  18  9   9.4   5.1
  7000  -3.0  26.6  020  13  7  10.0   5.5 |  -3.8  25.2  020  17  9   9.4   5.1
  6750  -2.3  27.9  020  13  6   9.7   5.3 |  -3.2  26.2  020  17  9   9.3   5.1
  6500  -1.6  29.1  020  12  6  10.1   5.5 |  -2.5  27.5  020  16  8   9.0   5.0
  6250  -0.8  30.6  020  12  6  11.1   6.1 |  -1.8  28.8  020  15  8   8.5   4.7
  6000   0.0  32.0  020  12  6   9.4   5.1 |  -1.2  29.8  020  14  7   9.7   5.3
  5750   0.7  33.3  020  11  6   9.1   5.0 |  -0.5  31.1  020  12  6   5.0   2.8
  5500   1.4  34.5  020  11  6  10.7   5.9 |  -0.5  31.1  020  11  5  -0.6  -0.3
  5250   2.2  36.0  020  11  6   9.4   5.1 |  -0.4  31.3  015  10  5   3.8   2.1
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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