Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 201659
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
1059 MDT Thursday, July 20, 2017

This forecast is for Thursday, July 20, 2017:

If the trigger temperature of 85.6 F/29.8 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 758 ft/min (3.9 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 15906 ft MSL (11067 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 95.0 F/35.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10164 ft MSL (5325 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 07/21....... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:04:43 / 20:36:30 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 31 min 47 sec (871 min 47 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:20:29 MDT... 71.36 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 07/20/2017 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 17486 ft MSL (12647 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14309 ft MSL (9470 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14820 ft MSL (9980 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -4.5
K index......................... +30.7

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -67.8 -90.0   210   24   12   9.3   5.1   79.4 174.9    25.9      M    M
 45000  -62.2 -80.0   220   19   10  -0.1  -0.1   64.4 147.9    18.4      M    M
 40000  -50.3 -58.5   235   13    7   6.4   3.5   60.1 140.2    16.8      M    M
 38000  -46.0 -50.8   195   10    5   8.8   4.8   57.9 136.2    15.7      M    M
 36000  -39.9 -39.8   160   15    8   7.3   4.0   57.2 135.0    15.7      M    M
 34000  -35.7 -32.3   215   16    8   7.7   4.2   54.9 130.8    14.4      M    M
 32000  -31.2 -24.2   190   16    8   1.5   0.8   53.0 127.4    13.3      M    M
 30000  -26.8 -16.2   220   12    6   7.8   4.3   51.1 124.1    12.1      M    M
 29000  -25.2 -13.4   210   12    6   7.8   4.3   49.3 120.8    11.0      M    M
 28000  -22.7  -8.9   200   12    6   8.0   4.4   48.8 119.8    10.7      M    M
 27000  -20.8  -5.4   200   10    5   0.9   0.5   47.5 117.5     9.8      M    M
 26000  -19.5  -3.1   200    8    4   5.6   3.0   45.7 114.3     8.3      M    M
 25000  -17.3   0.9   205    6    3   8.2   4.5   44.7 112.5     7.6      M    M
 24000  -14.8   5.4   190   10    5   7.1   3.9   44.0 111.1     7.3      M    M
 23000  -12.7   9.1   185   14    7   7.5   4.1   42.9 109.3     6.5      M    M
 22000  -10.2  13.6   180   19   10   8.8   4.8   42.5 108.5     6.2      M    M
 21000   -7.6  18.3   185   15    8   8.8   4.8   42.1 107.7     5.9      M    M
 20000   -4.6  23.7   195   11    6   6.0   3.3   41.4 106.5     5.3      M    M
 19500   -3.8  25.2   210   10    5   1.5   0.8   40.5 104.8     4.6      M    M
 19000   -3.1  26.4   220   10    5   8.6   4.7   39.7 103.4     3.9      M    M
 18500   -2.0  28.4   230   11    6   8.4   4.6   39.4 102.9     3.6      M    M
 18000   -0.9  30.4   235   12    6   7.0   3.9   39.0 102.3     3.3      M    M
 17500    0.1  32.2   225   11    6   5.5   3.0   38.5 101.3     2.8      M    M
 17000    0.6  33.1   225   11    6   3.9   2.1   37.6  99.6     1.8      M    M
 16500    1.0  33.8   245   13    6   4.0   2.2   36.6  97.9     0.8      M    M
 16000    1.7  35.1   260   15    8   7.5   4.1   35.9  96.6     0.0      M    M
 15500    2.8  37.0   255   15    8   8.0   4.4   35.6  96.0    -0.4    914  4.6
 15000    3.9  39.0   250   14    7   8.5   4.7   35.3  95.5    -0.8    866  4.4
 14500    5.2  41.4   250   14    7   9.0   4.9   35.2  95.3    -0.9    814  4.1
 14000    6.5  43.7   245   14    7   8.9   4.9   35.0  95.1    -1.0    758  3.8
 13500    7.9  46.2   250   13    7   8.2   4.5   34.9  94.8    -1.1    702  3.6
 13000    8.7  47.7   260   12    6   5.3   2.9   34.3  93.8    -1.8    663  3.4
 12500    9.8  49.6   255   14    7   9.4   5.2   34.0  93.2    -2.2    616  3.1
 12000   11.1  52.0   250   15    8   9.1   5.0   33.9  93.0    -2.3    561  2.8
 11500   12.5  54.5   245   15    8   9.1   5.0   33.8  92.8    -2.4    505  2.6
 11000   13.8  56.8   245   14    7   9.0   4.9   33.7  92.6    -2.5    450  2.3
 10500   15.2  59.4   240   14    7   7.6   4.2   33.6  92.4    -2.6    394  2.0
 10250   15.7  60.3   240   14    7   6.0   3.3   33.3  91.9    -2.9    373  1.9
 10000   16.1  61.0   240   14    7   5.7   3.1   33.0  91.4    -3.2    351  1.8
  9750   16.3  61.3   225   12    6  -0.0  -0.0   32.5  90.5    -3.7    338  1.7
  9500   16.2  61.2   200   11    6   3.5   1.9   31.7  89.1    -4.6    334  1.7
  9250   16.8  62.2   180   12    6   9.4   5.2   31.6  88.9    -4.7    309  1.6
  9000   17.4  63.3   160   15    8   7.6   4.2   31.5  88.6    -4.9    284  1.4
  8750   18.0  64.4   160   16    8   9.0   4.9   31.3  88.4    -5.0    260  1.3
  8500   18.5  65.3   160   18    9   5.3   2.9   31.2  88.2    -5.2    235  1.2
  8250   18.5  65.3   160   19   10  -4.2  -2.3   30.5  86.9    -5.9    227  1.2
  8000   18.1  64.6   160   21   11  -4.5  -2.5   29.3  84.7    -7.2    234  1.2
  7750   18.0  64.4   160   22   11   4.6   2.5   28.5  83.3    -7.9    228  1.2
  7500   18.6  65.5   160   22   11   7.7   4.2   28.3  83.0    -8.2    204  1.0
  7250   19.1  66.4   165   23   12   7.8   4.3   28.1  82.6    -8.4    181  0.9
  7000   19.6  67.3   165   24   12   4.4   2.4   27.9  82.3    -8.6    158  0.8
  6750   19.6  67.3   160   21   11  -0.5  -0.3   27.3  81.1    -9.4    151  0.8
  6500   19.6  67.3   150   18    9   5.2   2.9   26.6  80.0   -10.1    143  0.7
  6250   20.2  68.4   140   16    8   9.4   5.2   26.6  79.8   -10.2    117  0.6
  6000   20.8  69.4   125   14    7   8.3   4.6   26.5  79.6   -10.4     91  0.5
  5750   21.5  70.7   115   13    7   8.6   4.7   26.4  79.5   -10.5     66  0.3
  5500   22.1  71.8   115   13    6   8.5   4.6   26.3  79.3   -10.6     40  0.2
  5250   22.7  72.9   105   12    6   8.8   4.8   26.2  79.2   -10.8     14  0.1
  5000   23.2  73.8   100   11    6   2.9   1.6   26.0  78.8   -11.0      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           07/20/2017 at 0900 MDT          |       07/20/2017 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +34.0  LI... -3.0               | K index... +32.4  LI... -3.8
CAPE... +494.9  CIN... -18.7               | CAPE... +789.6  CIN... -33.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -66.5 -87.7  225  15  8   2.7   1.5 | -65.9 -86.6  210  15  8   2.3   1.2
 45000 -60.3 -76.5  220  15  8   6.3   3.5 | -60.3 -76.5  205  13  7   6.2   3.4
 40000 -50.4 -58.7  200  12  6   7.9   4.3 | -50.6 -59.1  195  12  6   7.9   4.3
 38000 -45.6 -50.1  190  13  7   7.9   4.3 | -45.3 -49.5  180  13  7   7.9   4.3
 36000 -40.3 -40.5  185  14  7   7.8   4.3 | -40.5 -40.9  170  14  7   7.9   4.3
 34000 -35.6 -32.1  190  13  7   7.8   4.3 | -35.8 -32.4  170  11  6   7.9   4.3
 32000 -30.9 -23.6  200  12  6   8.0   4.4 | -31.0 -23.8  165   9  4   7.9   4.3
 30000 -26.6 -15.9  200  12  6   7.2   4.0 | -26.9 -16.4  175  10  5   7.0   3.8
 29000 -24.4 -11.9  200  12  6   7.2   4.0 | -24.8 -12.6  175  11  6   7.0   3.8
 28000 -22.3  -8.1  195  11  6   6.3   3.5 | -22.7  -8.9  180  11  6   6.3   3.4
 27000 -20.4  -4.7  195  11  5   6.4   3.5 | -20.9  -5.6  180  11  6   6.4   3.5
 26000 -18.5  -1.3  195  10  5   6.4   3.5 | -19.0  -2.2  185  10  5   6.4   3.5
 25000 -16.6   2.1  195   9  5   6.3   3.5 | -17.1   1.2  190  10  5   6.3   3.5
 24000 -14.7   5.5  200  10  5   6.2   3.4 | -15.3   4.5  200  11  6   6.2   3.4
 23000 -12.9   8.8  200  11  6   6.2   3.4 | -13.4   7.9  210  12  6   6.2   3.4
 22000 -11.1  12.0  200  12  6   6.5   3.6 | -11.1  12.0  215  13  7   7.0   3.9
 21000  -8.7  16.3  205  11  6   6.7   3.7 |  -9.0  15.8  215  13  7   7.0   3.8
 20000  -6.7  19.9  205  10  5   6.9   3.8 |  -7.0  19.4  210  12  6   7.0   3.8
 19500  -5.8  21.6  205  10  5   6.8   3.7 |  -5.9  21.4  210  12  6   7.2   4.0
 19000  -4.8  23.4  205   9  5   6.8   3.7 |  -4.9  23.2  210  12  6   7.3   4.0
 18500  -3.9  25.0  210   8  4   6.8   3.7 |  -3.8  25.2  210  11  6   7.4   4.0
 18000  -3.0  26.6  210   8  4   6.8   3.7 |  -2.8  27.0  210  10  5   7.4   4.1
 17500  -2.0  28.4  215   7  4   6.8   3.7 |  -1.8  28.8  215   9  5   7.5   4.1
 17000  -1.0  30.2  220   7  3   6.8   3.7 |  -0.7  30.7  215   8  4   7.4   4.1
 16500  -0.1  31.8  225   6  3   6.8   3.7 |   0.3  32.5  215   8  4   7.4   4.1
 16000   0.9  33.6  235   6  3   6.9   3.8 |   1.4  34.5  215   7  4   7.5   4.1
 15500   1.9  35.4  240   6  3   7.3   4.0 |   2.5  36.5  215   7  3   7.8   4.3
 15000   3.0  37.4  240   6  3   7.3   4.0 |   3.6  38.5  215   6  3   7.8   4.3
 14500   4.0  39.2  245   6  3   7.3   4.0 |   4.7  40.5  210   6  3   7.5   4.1
 14000   5.0  41.0  245   6  3   7.3   4.0 |   5.8  42.4  210   6  3   7.5   4.1
 13500   6.1  43.0  245   6  3   8.6   4.7 |   6.9  44.4  205   5  3   7.9   4.4
 13000   7.4  45.3  240   6  3   8.9   4.9 |   8.0  46.4  200   5  3   8.0   4.4
 12500   8.7  47.7  235   7  3   9.5   5.2 |   9.2  48.6  200   5  3   8.5   4.7
 12000  10.1  50.2  230   7  4   9.8   5.4 |  10.4  50.7  205   5  3   8.8   4.8
 11500  11.5  52.7  230   7  4   9.5   5.2 |  11.7  53.1  210   5  3   9.0   4.9
 11000  12.8  55.0  220   8  4   8.9   4.9 |  13.0  55.4  210   6  3   8.8   4.8
 10500  14.2  57.6  215   9  5   4.3   2.3 |  14.4  57.9  215   6  3   4.1   2.2
 10250  14.3  57.7  215   9  5   5.3   2.9 |  14.5  58.1  215   6  3   5.6   3.1
 10000  15.1  59.2  215  10  5  12.1   6.6 |  15.4  59.7  225   6  3  12.8   7.0
  9750  15.9  60.6  215  10  5  11.0   6.0 |  16.2  61.2  230   6  3  11.8   6.5
  9500  16.7  62.1  220  11  6   8.7   4.8 |  17.0  62.6  235   7  3   8.3   4.5
  9250  17.2  63.0  220  11  6   5.9   3.2 |  17.4  63.3  245   7  4   4.8   2.7
  9000  17.7  63.9  220  11  6   7.3   4.0 |  17.8  64.0  250   8  4   7.6   4.1
  8750  18.2  64.8  215  11  6   7.8   4.3 |  18.4  65.1  255   8  4   8.1   4.4
  8500  18.8  65.8  215  11  6   6.0   3.3 |  18.9  66.0  265   8  4   6.5   3.6
  8250  19.1  66.4  210  11  6   4.8   2.6 |  19.4  66.9  265   8  4   5.1   2.8
  8000  19.5  67.1  205  11  6   4.5   2.5 |  19.8  67.6  270   7  4   6.5   3.6
  7750  19.8  67.6  195  11  6   3.2   1.8 |  20.3  68.5  270   7  3   8.0   4.4
  7500  19.9  67.8  190  11  6   1.9   1.0 |  20.9  69.6  270   6  3   8.3   4.6
  7250  20.0  68.0  180  10  5   1.2   0.6 |  21.5  70.7  275   6  3   8.5   4.7
  7000  20.1  68.2  175  10  5   1.1   0.6 |  22.1  71.8  275   6  3   8.6   4.7
  6750  20.2  68.4  165  10  5   1.4   0.7 |  22.7  72.9  275   6  3   9.9   5.4
  6500  20.3  68.5  160   8  4   2.6   1.4 |  23.5  74.3  275   6  3  11.0   6.0
  6250  20.4  68.7  155   7  3   2.4   1.3 |  24.3  75.7  275   6  3  10.8   5.9
  6000  20.6  69.1  140   5  3   4.0   2.2 |  25.1  77.2  275   5  3  11.1   6.1
  5750  21.1  70.0  130   4  2  12.4   6.8 |  26.1  79.0  275   6  3  18.6  10.2
  5500  22.3  72.1  125   4  2  21.1  11.6 |  28.0  82.4  275   5  3  29.9  16.4
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           07/20/2017 at 1500 MDT          |       07/20/2017 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +32.3  LI... -3.6               | K index... +30.5  LI... -3.3
CAPE... +721.9  CIN... -27.7               | CAPE... +697.8  CIN... -98.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.4 -85.7  215  21 11   2.2   1.2 | -66.0 -86.8  235  22 11   2.4   1.3
 45000 -59.5 -75.1  210  17  9   6.1   3.4 | -60.4 -76.7  230  19 10   6.1   3.3
 40000 -49.8 -57.6  210  12  6   7.7   4.2 | -50.2 -58.4  215  12  6   8.1   4.4
 38000 -45.2 -49.4  200  13  7   7.7   4.2 | -45.4 -49.7  200  15  8   8.1   4.4
 36000 -40.6 -41.1  190  13  7   7.8   4.3 | -40.5 -40.9  190  18  9   7.9   4.4
 34000 -35.9 -32.6  180  14  7   7.8   4.3 | -35.8 -32.4  200  18  9   7.9   4.4
 32000 -31.2 -24.2  170  15  8   7.9   4.3 | -31.0 -23.8  205  17  9   8.3   4.6
 30000 -26.9 -16.4  175  15  8   7.2   4.0 | -26.8 -16.2  210  18 10   7.1   3.9
 29000 -24.3 -11.7  180  16  8   7.2   4.0 | -24.6 -12.3  215  19 10   7.1   3.9
 28000 -22.2  -8.0  185  16  8   6.4   3.5 | -22.0  -7.6  215  20 10   7.3   4.0
 27000 -20.4  -4.7  190  16  8   6.4   3.5 | -19.8  -3.6  215  19 10   7.3   4.0
 26000 -18.5  -1.3  190  16  8   6.4   3.5 | -17.6   0.3  215  19 10   7.3   4.0
 25000 -16.6   2.1  195  16  8   6.7   3.7 | -15.5   4.1  215  19 10   6.6   3.6
 24000 -14.6   5.7  200  15  8   6.8   3.7 | -13.6   7.5  215  16  8   6.6   3.6
 23000 -12.6   9.3  200  14  7   6.9   3.8 | -11.6  11.1  220  14  7   6.7   3.6
 22000 -10.7  12.7  205  13  6   6.7   3.7 |  -9.8  14.4  220  12  6   6.0   3.3
 21000  -8.8  16.2  205  12  6   6.7   3.7 |  -8.0  17.6  230  10  5   6.1   3.3
 20000  -6.8  19.8  205  12  6   6.8   3.7 |  -6.3  20.7  240   9  5   6.1   3.4
 19500  -5.9  21.4  205  12  6   7.0   3.8 |  -5.4  22.3  245   9  5   6.4   3.5
 19000  -4.8  23.4  205  11  6   7.3   4.0 |  -4.5  23.9  250   8  4   7.0   3.9
 18500  -3.7  25.3  205  11  6   7.4   4.0 |  -3.5  25.7  255   8  4   7.1   3.9
 18000  -2.7  27.1  205  11  6   7.2   3.9 |  -2.5  27.5  260   8  4   7.1   3.9
 17500  -1.6  29.1  210  10  5   7.2   3.9 |  -1.4  29.5  265   8  4   7.2   3.9
 17000  -0.6  30.9  210   9  5   7.4   4.0 |  -0.4  31.3  270   7  4   7.2   4.0
 16500   0.5  32.9  210   9  4   7.8   4.3 |   0.7  33.3  275   6  3   7.5   4.1
 16000   1.7  35.1  215   8  4   7.8   4.3 |   1.7  35.1  285   6  3   7.5   4.1
 15500   2.8  37.0  215   7  4   8.3   4.5 |   2.8  37.0  295   5  3   7.5   4.1
 15000   4.0  39.2  225   6  3   8.2   4.5 |   3.9  39.0  305   4  2   7.5   4.1
 14500   5.2  41.4  230   5  3   7.8   4.3 |   5.0  41.0  315   4  2   7.9   4.3
 14000   6.9  44.4  240   5  2   7.7   4.2 |   6.2  43.2  325   4  2   8.0   4.4
 13500   8.0  46.4  245   4  2   8.0   4.4 |   8.0  46.4  335   3  2   8.4   4.6
 13000   9.1  48.4  250   4  2   8.0   4.4 |   9.2  48.6  345   2  1   8.4   4.6
 12500  10.3  50.5  255   3  2   8.3   4.5 |  10.5  50.9  360   2  1   8.3   4.6
 12000  11.5  52.7  255   3  2   8.3   4.6 |  11.7  53.1  035   1  0   8.3   4.6
 11500  12.7  54.9  260   3  1   8.9   4.9 |  12.9  55.2  100   1  1   8.1   4.5
 11000  14.0  57.2  255   3  1   9.7   5.3 |  14.0  57.2  135   2  1   8.2   4.5
 10500  15.0  59.0  255   3  1   3.9   2.1 |  15.1  59.2  150   3  2   5.1   2.8
 10250  15.5  59.9  265   3  1   8.5   4.7 |  15.5  59.9  150   4  2   7.8   4.3
 10000  16.2  61.2  275   3  1  11.2   6.2 |  16.2  61.2  155   4  2  10.8   5.9
  9750  17.0  62.6  280   3  1  10.4   5.7 |  16.9  62.4  155   5  3  10.3   5.7
  9500  17.7  63.9  285   3  2   7.7   4.2 |  17.6  63.7  155   6  3   6.3   3.5
  9250  18.2  64.8  285   3  2   7.6   4.2 |  17.9  64.2  155   7  4   5.8   3.2
  9000  18.8  65.8  290   4  2   9.6   5.3 |  18.5  65.3  155   8  4   9.5   5.2
  8750  19.5  67.1  290   4  2   9.2   5.0 |  19.1  66.4  160  10  5   8.8   4.8
  8500  20.2  68.4  290   4  2   9.3   5.1 |  19.7  67.5  160  11  6   6.8   3.7
  8250  20.9  69.6  290   4  2   9.4   5.2 |  20.1  68.2  160  13  7   5.3   2.9
  8000  21.6  70.9  290   4  2  10.0   5.5 |  20.5  68.9  155  15  8   6.4   3.5
  7750  22.3  72.1  290   4  2  10.3   5.7 |  20.9  69.6  155  17  9   5.3   2.9
  7500  23.1  73.6  290   4  2  10.3   5.7 |  21.1  70.0  155  19 10   2.1   1.1
  7250  23.8  74.8  290   4  2  10.3   5.6 |  21.2  70.2  155  21 11   1.5   0.8
  7000  24.6  76.3  290   4  2  10.6   5.8 |  21.3  70.3  155  22 11   0.2   0.1
  6750  25.4  77.7  290   4  2  11.1   6.1 |  21.3  70.3  155  23 12   3.2   1.7
  6500  26.2  79.2  290   4  2  11.1   6.1 |  21.7  71.1  155  23 12   7.8   4.3
  6250  27.1  80.8  285   4  2  11.4   6.3 |  22.2  72.0  155  22 11   7.8   4.3
  6000  27.9  82.2  285   4  2  10.1   5.6 |  22.7  72.9  155  21 11   6.8   3.7
  5750  28.7  83.7  285   4  2  13.2   7.2 |  23.2  73.8  155  20 10  10.6   5.8
  5500  29.9  85.8  290   4  2  17.5   9.6 |  24.2  75.6  155  19 10  15.4   8.4
  5250  31.1  88.0  290   4  2  14.1   7.8 |  25.2  77.4  155  18  9  11.6   6.4
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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