Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 241245
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0645 MDT Tuesday, March 24, 2015

This forecast is for Tuesday, March 24, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 49.8 F/9.9 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 531 ft/min (2.7 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 13510 ft MSL (8671 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 62.0 F/17.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0915 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10766 ft MSL (5926 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 03/25.... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:11:31 / 19:28:53 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 17 min 22 sec (737 min 22 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:20:22 MDT... 52.42 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 03/24/2015 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 8091 ft MSL (3252 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14309 ft MSL (9470 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14325 ft MSL (9486 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +1.5
K index......................... -16.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -56.9 -70.4   245   38   20   0.4   0.2  108.4 227.2    52.0      M    M
 45000  -53.6 -64.5   265   43   22   2.9   1.6   89.1 192.4    43.9      M    M
 40000  -54.4 -65.9   285   77   40  -2.3  -1.3   64.7 148.4    31.1      M    M
 38000  -62.0 -79.6   280   82   42  -2.9  -1.6   44.2 111.5    18.3      M    M
 36000  -61.1 -78.0   285   76   39  -0.9  -0.5   36.8  98.3    13.8      M    M
 34000  -57.3 -71.1   290   71   36   6.2   3.4   32.8  91.1    11.4      M    M
 32000  -53.7 -64.7   300   75   39   8.2   4.5   29.7  85.4     9.4      M    M
 30000  -48.7 -55.7   305   82   42   8.9   4.9   28.5  83.3     8.8      M    M
 29000  -46.0 -50.8   305   82   42   8.9   4.9   28.0  82.4     8.6      M    M
 28000  -43.4 -46.1   300   83   43   8.9   4.9   27.7  81.8     8.4      M    M
 27000  -40.7 -41.3   300   83   43   8.9   4.9   27.4  81.4     8.3      M    M
 26000  -38.0 -36.4   300   84   43   8.9   4.9   27.3  81.1     8.3      M    M
 25000  -35.3 -31.5   300   82   42   8.7   4.8   26.9  80.4     8.1      M    M
 24000  -33.3 -27.9   305   78   40   6.4   3.5   25.8  78.4     7.3      M    M
 23000  -31.3 -24.3   305   72   37   6.8   3.7   24.6  76.3     6.4      M    M
 22000  -29.2 -20.6   305   65   34   6.8   3.7   23.5  74.3     5.6      M    M
 21000  -27.6 -17.7   305   59   30   2.2   1.2   22.0  71.5     4.4      M    M
 20000  -26.1 -15.0   305   52   27   6.0   3.3   20.4  68.7     3.1      M    M
 19500  -25.2 -13.4   305   48   25   6.0   3.3   19.7  67.4     2.5      M    M
 19000  -23.8 -10.8   300   43   22   6.0   3.3   18.7  65.6     1.7      M    M
 18500  -22.9  -9.2   295   42   22   7.9   4.3   18.1  64.6     1.2      M    M
 18000  -21.5  -6.7   295   43   22   9.5   5.2   18.0  64.4     1.1      M    M
 17500  -20.1  -4.2   295   45   23   9.5   5.2   17.9  64.2     1.0      M    M
 17000  -18.7  -1.7   290   46   24   9.5   5.2   17.9  64.2     1.0      M    M
 16500  -17.2   1.0   290   47   24   9.5   5.2   17.9  64.1     1.0      M    M
 16000  -15.9   3.4   290   48   25   8.5   4.7   17.7  63.9     0.9      M    M
 15500  -14.6   5.7   290   45   23   8.6   4.7   17.5  63.5     0.7      M    M
 15000  -13.3   8.1   290   43   22   8.7   4.8   17.3  63.2     0.5      M    M
 14500  -11.9  10.6   295   41   21   8.7   4.8   17.1  62.9     0.4      M    M
 14000  -10.6  12.9   295   39   20   8.2   4.5   17.0  62.6     0.3      M    M
 13500   -9.5  14.9   295   39   20   7.9   4.3   16.7  62.0    -0.0    626  3.2
 13000   -8.3  17.1   300   38   20   7.9   4.3   16.3  61.4    -0.3    576  2.9
 12500   -7.1  19.2   300   38   20   7.8   4.3   16.0  60.9    -0.6    525  2.7
 12000   -5.9  21.4   300   38   19   6.7   3.7   15.8  60.4    -0.8    475  2.4
 11500   -5.2  22.6   305   34   18   3.8   2.1   14.9  58.8    -1.7    440  2.2
 11000   -4.7  23.5   305   30   16   4.4   2.4   14.0  57.1    -2.6    409  2.1
 10500   -4.4  24.1   310   27   14  -2.3  -1.2   12.7  54.9    -3.8    387  2.0
 10250   -4.6  23.7   315   25   13   0.3   0.2   11.8  53.2    -4.7    385  2.0
 10000   -4.4  24.1   315   24   12   6.3   3.5   11.3  52.3    -5.2    370  1.9
  9750   -3.8  25.2   315   22   11   7.7   4.3   11.1  52.0    -5.4    346  1.8
  9500   -3.3  26.1   310   21   11   6.7   3.7   10.9  51.7    -5.6    323  1.6
  9250   -2.9  26.8   310   19   10   6.2   3.4   10.6  51.2    -6.0    303  1.5
  9000   -2.4  27.7   305   18    9   6.6   3.6   10.4  50.7    -6.3    282  1.4
  8750   -1.9  28.6   300   17    9   8.4   4.6   10.2  50.3    -6.5    260  1.3
  8500   -1.2  29.8   300   15    8   9.7   5.3   10.2  50.3    -6.6    232  1.2
  8250   -0.5  31.1   295   14    7   9.4   5.1   10.1  50.2    -6.7    204  1.0
  8000    0.1  32.2   285   12    6   9.5   5.2   10.1  50.2    -6.7    176  0.9
  7750    0.8  33.4   285   12    6   9.5   5.2   10.1  50.2    -6.8    148  0.8
  7500    1.5  34.7   285   12    6   9.1   5.0   10.1  50.1    -6.8    120  0.6
  7250    2.2  36.0   285   11    6   8.7   4.8   10.0  50.0    -6.9     92  0.5
  7000    2.9  37.2   285   11    6   9.0   4.9    9.9  49.9    -7.0     65  0.3
  6750    3.5  38.3   285   10    5   8.3   4.6    9.9  49.7    -7.1     37  0.2
  6500    4.1  39.4   290   10    5   7.1   3.9    9.7  49.4    -7.3     13  0.1
  6250    4.5  40.1   295    9    5   6.9   3.8    9.5  49.1    -7.6      M    M
  6000    5.0  41.0   300    8    4   7.0   3.8    9.3  48.7    -7.8      M    M
  5750    5.5  41.9   305    6    3   7.1   3.9    9.1  48.3    -8.1      M    M
  5500    6.0  42.8   315    4    2   6.7   3.7    8.8  47.9    -8.4      M    M
  5250    6.4  43.5   340    2    1   8.6   4.7    8.6  47.6    -8.7      M    M
  5000    6.7  44.1   040    2    1  -4.4  -2.4    8.3  46.9    -9.1      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/24/2015 at 0900 MDT          |       03/24/2015 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... -5.8  LI... +5.5                | K index... +2.3  LI... +6.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.9 -68.6  270  26 13   0.2   0.1 | -54.9 -66.8  275  29 15  -0.7  -0.4
 45000 -55.5 -67.9  275  34 17   0.4   0.2 | -56.0 -68.8  285  39 20  -0.5  -0.3
 40000 -57.9 -72.2  290  55 28  -1.7  -0.9 | -59.4 -74.9  285  53 28  -2.4  -1.3
 38000 -58.6 -73.5  290  63 33   0.2   0.1 | -60.1 -76.2  285  59 30   1.6   0.9
 36000 -58.4 -73.1  290  69 35   0.3   0.1 | -59.1 -74.4  285  63 32   1.6   0.9
 34000 -58.3 -72.9  295  74 38   4.0   2.2 | -58.0 -72.4  285  66 34   6.0   3.3
 32000 -52.3 -62.1  290  70 36   8.9   4.9 | -52.1 -61.8  280  65 34   8.8   4.8
 30000 -47.1 -52.8  290  66 34   7.5   4.1 | -46.9 -52.4  280  64 33   8.0   4.4
 29000 -44.8 -48.6  290  66 34   7.6   4.2 | -44.5 -48.1  280  62 32   8.1   4.4
 28000 -42.5 -44.5  295  66 34   7.6   4.2 | -42.1 -43.8  280  61 31   8.1   4.4
 27000 -40.2 -40.4  300  67 34   7.7   4.2 | -39.6 -39.3  285  59 31   8.2   4.5
 26000 -37.8 -36.0  300  66 34   8.2   4.5 | -37.1 -34.8  285  58 30   8.3   4.6
 25000 -35.3 -31.5  300  66 34   8.2   4.5 | -34.7 -30.5  285  58 30   8.3   4.6
 24000 -32.9 -27.2  300  65 33   8.2   4.5 | -32.2 -26.0  285  57 29   8.3   4.5
 23000 -30.5 -22.9  300  63 33   7.7   4.2 | -29.8 -21.6  285  56 29   8.0   4.4
 22000 -28.2 -18.8  300  61 32   7.7   4.2 | -27.4 -17.3  290  55 28   8.0   4.4
 21000 -26.0 -14.8  300  59 31   7.2   4.0 | -25.0 -13.0  290  54 28   7.9   4.3
 20000 -23.9 -11.0  300  55 29   6.7   3.7 | -22.7  -8.9  290  51 26   7.8   4.3
 19500 -22.9  -9.2  300  54 28   6.7   3.7 | -21.5  -6.7  290  50 26   7.8   4.3
 19000 -21.9  -7.4  300  52 27   6.7   3.7 | -20.3  -4.5  290  49 25   7.8   4.3
 18500 -20.9  -5.6  300  50 26   6.8   3.8 | -19.2  -2.6  290  48 24   7.2   3.9
 18000 -19.9  -3.8  300  48 25   7.1   3.9 | -18.2  -0.8  290  46 24   6.3   3.5
 17500 -18.8  -1.8  300  46 23   7.1   3.9 | -17.3   0.9  290  44 23   6.4   3.5
 17000 -17.8  -0.0  295  44 23   7.0   3.9 | -16.5   2.3  290  42 22   4.8   2.6
 16500 -16.7   1.9  295  42 22   7.0   3.9 | -15.7   3.7  290  40 21   4.9   2.7
 16000 -15.7   3.7  295  41 21   6.6   3.6 | -14.9   5.2  290  38 20   6.0   3.3
 15500 -14.2   6.4  295  40 21   6.5   3.6 | -13.5   7.7  290  36 18   6.4   3.5
 15000 -13.4   7.9  295  38 20   5.2   2.9 | -12.6   9.3  290  34 17   6.0   3.3
 14500 -12.6   9.3  295  36 19   5.2   2.9 | -11.7  10.9  290  32 16   6.0   3.3
 14000 -11.8  10.8  295  34 17   5.8   3.2 | -10.8  12.6  290  30 15   5.9   3.2
 13500 -10.9  12.4  295  31 16   6.0   3.3 | -10.0  14.0  290  29 15   5.9   3.2
 13000  -9.9  14.2  295  29 15   6.1   3.3 |  -9.1  15.6  290  28 14   5.3   2.9
 12500  -9.0  15.8  295  27 14   6.1   3.3 |  -8.3  17.1  285  26 13   5.1   2.8
 12000  -8.1  17.4  295  25 13   5.9   3.3 |  -7.6  18.3  285  24 12   5.4   3.0
 11500  -7.2  19.0  300  23 12   5.9   3.2 |  -6.7  19.9  280  22 11   5.5   3.0
 11000  -6.4  20.5  300  20 10   5.4   3.0 |  -5.8  21.6  275  20 10   6.3   3.4
 10500  -5.6  21.9  295  17  9   5.9   3.2 |  -4.9  23.2  270  18  9   7.2   4.0
 10250  -5.2  22.6  295  16  8   3.0   1.6 |  -4.4  24.1  270  18  9   3.5   1.9
 10000  -5.0  23.0  295  14  7   3.8   2.1 |  -4.2  24.4  265  17  9   4.7   2.6
  9750  -4.6  23.7  290  13  7   7.1   3.9 |  -3.6  25.5  265  16  8   9.2   5.1
  9500  -4.1  24.6  290  11  6   6.5   3.5 |  -3.0  26.6  260  15  8   8.5   4.6
  9250  -3.6  25.5  285  10  5   5.8   3.2 |  -2.4  27.7  255  14  7   7.1   3.9
  9000  -3.3  26.1  280   9  5   5.4   3.0 |  -2.0  28.4  255  14  7   5.9   3.2
  8750  -2.8  27.0  275   8  4   6.7   3.7 |  -1.5  29.3  250  12  6   7.2   4.0
  8500  -2.3  27.9  270   8  4   6.8   3.8 |  -1.0  30.2  245  10  5   7.1   3.9
  8250  -1.9  28.6  265   7  4   6.7   3.7 |  -0.5  31.1  240   9  5   6.5   3.5
  8000  -1.4  29.5  260   7  4   6.7   3.7 |  -0.1  31.8  235   8  4   6.3   3.5
  7750  -0.9  30.4  255   7  3   7.1   3.9 |   0.4  32.7  230   7  3   6.0   3.3
  7500  -0.4  31.3  255   6  3   7.4   4.0 |   0.8  33.4  225   6  3   8.1   4.4
  7250   0.2  32.4  250   6  3   7.5   4.1 |   1.5  34.7  220   5  3  10.6   5.8
  7000   0.7  33.3  240   5  3   7.5   4.1 |   2.3  36.1  220   5  3  10.3   5.6
  6750   1.2  34.2  235   5  3   7.3   4.0 |   3.1  37.6  220   5  3  10.3   5.6
  6500   1.7  35.1  225   5  2   7.2   4.0 |   3.8  38.8  220   5  3  10.7   5.9
  6250   2.2  36.0  220   4  2   7.8   4.3 |   4.7  40.5  220   5  3  11.6   6.4
  6000   2.7  36.9  210   4  2   6.4   3.5 |   5.5  41.9  220   5  2   9.4   5.2
  5750   3.1  37.6  200   3  2   6.6   3.6 |   6.2  43.2  220   5  2  11.0   6.0
  5500   3.6  38.5  195   3  2   8.7   4.7 |   7.2  45.0  225   5  2  15.1   8.3
  5250   4.2  39.6  190   3  2   7.0   3.9 |   8.2  46.8  225   5  2  11.9   6.5
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           03/24/2015 at 1500 MDT          |       03/24/2015 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +10.8  LI... +4.2               | K index... +14.5  LI... +2.8
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0                    | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -54.9 -66.8  280  24 13  -0.4  -0.2 | -55.7 -68.3  285  30 15  -0.2  -0.1
 45000 -55.5 -67.9  280  38 19  -0.3  -0.1 | -56.0 -68.8  280  43 22  -0.1  -0.0
 40000 -60.0 -76.0  280  51 26  -3.0  -1.6 | -60.4 -76.7  280  46 24  -3.0  -1.7
 38000 -60.4 -76.7  280  53 27   2.5   1.4 | -60.7 -77.3  280  46 24   3.2   1.8
 36000 -58.9 -74.0  285  53 27   2.5   1.4 | -58.8 -73.8  290  45 23   3.2   1.7
 34000 -57.1 -70.8  285  53 27   8.6   4.7 | -56.6 -69.9  295  45 23   8.4   4.6
 32000 -51.9 -61.4  280  54 28   8.6   4.7 | -51.5 -60.7  290  41 21   8.5   4.6
 30000 -46.8 -52.2  280  55 28   7.7   4.2 | -46.5 -51.7  285  38 19   7.5   4.1
 29000 -44.5 -48.1  275  55 28   7.8   4.3 | -44.2 -47.6  285  40 20   7.6   4.2
 28000 -42.2 -44.0  275  56 29   7.8   4.3 | -42.0 -43.6  285  42 22   7.7   4.2
 27000 -39.2 -38.6  275  56 29   8.5   4.7 | -39.7 -39.5  290  44 23   7.6   4.2
 26000 -36.6 -33.9  275  54 28   9.0   4.9 | -36.6 -33.9  285  44 23   8.5   4.7
 25000 -33.9 -29.0  275  53 27   9.0   4.9 | -34.0 -29.2  285  44 23   8.5   4.7
 24000 -31.2 -24.2  275  52 27   8.5   4.7 | -31.5 -24.7  280  44 23   8.3   4.6
 23000 -28.9 -20.0  275  50 26   7.7   4.2 | -29.2 -20.6  280  44 23   7.9   4.3
 22000 -26.6 -15.9  280  49 25   7.7   4.2 | -26.8 -16.2  280  44 23   7.9   4.3
 21000 -24.3 -11.7  280  48 25   7.1   3.9 | -24.5 -12.1  280  44 22   6.7   3.7
 20000 -22.3  -8.1  280  46 24   6.9   3.8 | -22.6  -8.7  280  43 22   6.3   3.5
 19500 -21.3  -6.3  280  45 23   7.0   3.8 | -21.7  -7.1  280  42 22   6.4   3.5
 19000 -20.2  -4.4  280  44 23   6.9   3.8 | -20.8  -5.4  280  42 21   6.4   3.5
 18500 -19.2  -2.6  280  43 22   6.3   3.5 | -19.8  -3.6  280  41 21   6.4   3.5
 18000 -18.3  -0.9  280  42 22   5.9   3.2 | -18.9  -2.0  280  40 21   6.4   3.5
 17500 -17.5   0.5  280  41 21   5.8   3.2 | -18.0  -0.4  280  39 20   6.4   3.5
 17000 -16.6   2.1  280  39 20   5.6   3.1 | -17.0   1.4  280  38 20   6.6   3.6
 16500 -15.8   3.6  280  38 20   5.6   3.1 | -16.0   3.2  280  37 19   6.6   3.6
 16000 -14.9   5.2  280  37 19   6.1   3.4 | -15.0   5.0  280  36 19   7.2   3.9
 15500 -14.0   6.8  280  36 18   6.2   3.4 | -13.9   7.0  280  35 18   7.3   4.0
 15000 -13.1   8.4  280  34 18   6.8   3.7 | -12.9   8.8  280  34 17   7.6   4.2
 14500 -12.0  10.4  275  33 17   7.3   4.0 | -11.7  10.9  280  33 17   8.0   4.4
 14000 -10.9  12.4  275  31 16   7.0   3.9 | -10.5  13.1  280  32 16   7.8   4.3
 13500  -9.9  14.2  275  29 15   6.4   3.5 |  -9.4  15.1  280  30 15   7.3   4.0
 13000  -8.5  16.7  275  26 14   6.1   3.4 |  -7.7  18.1  275  28 14   7.7   4.2
 12500  -7.6  18.3  270  25 13   6.0   3.3 |  -6.6  20.1  270  26 13   7.8   4.3
 12000  -6.7  19.9  265  23 12   7.7   4.2 |  -5.4  22.3  265  25 13   8.2   4.5
 11500  -5.4  22.3  260  22 11   8.1   4.5 |  -4.2  24.4  260  24 12   8.3   4.6
 11000  -4.3  24.3  255  21 11   8.0   4.4 |  -3.0  26.6  260  23 12   7.5   4.1
 10500  -3.1  26.4  250  20 10   8.7   4.8 |  -1.9  28.6  255  23 12   6.7   3.7
 10250  -2.5  27.5  250  19 10   4.7   2.6 |  -1.3  29.7  255  22 11   9.9   5.4
 10000  -2.3  27.9  250  18  9   5.0   2.7 |  -0.5  31.1  255  21 11  10.3   5.7
  9750  -1.7  28.9  250  17  9   8.9   4.9 |   0.1  32.2  255  20 11   7.4   4.0
  9500  -1.1  30.0  245  16  8   8.5   4.7 |   0.7  33.3  255  19 10   8.4   4.6
  9250  -0.5  31.1  245  15  7   6.2   3.4 |   1.3  34.3  250  19 10   7.3   4.0
  9000  -0.2  31.6  250  12  6   5.2   2.8 |   1.8  35.2  250  17  9   6.5   3.6
  8750   0.3  32.5  250  11  5   7.1   3.9 |   2.3  36.1  255  15  8   6.8   3.7
  8500   0.8  33.4  255   9  4   6.9   3.8 |   2.8  37.0  255  12  6   6.7   3.7
  8250   1.3  34.3  260   7  4   9.0   4.9 |   3.3  37.9  255  10  5   7.4   4.0
  8000   2.1  35.8  260   7  4  10.1   5.6 |   3.9  39.0  260   9  5   8.0   4.4
  7750   2.8  37.0  260   7  4   9.7   5.3 |   4.5  40.1  260   8  4   7.9   4.4
  7500   3.5  38.3  260   7  4  10.0   5.5 |   5.1  41.2  265   7  4   8.5   4.7
  7250   4.3  39.7  260   7  4  10.3   5.6 |   5.7  42.3  265   7  4   9.7   5.3
  7000   5.1  41.2  260   7  3  10.2   5.6 |   6.5  43.7  265   7  3   9.9   5.4
  6750   5.8  42.4  265   7  3  10.1   5.5 |   7.2  45.0  270   7  3   9.3   5.1
  6500   6.6  43.9  265   7  3  10.5   5.8 |   7.9  46.2  270   6  3  10.0   5.5
  6250   7.4  45.3  265   6  3  11.5   6.3 |   8.7  47.7  270   6  3  10.9   6.0
  6000   8.2  46.8  265   6  3   9.5   5.2 |   9.5  49.1  270   6  3  10.2   5.6
  5750   8.9  48.0  265   6  3  11.3   6.2 |  10.2  50.4  270   6  3   8.9   4.9
  5500  10.0  50.0  265   6  3  15.4   8.5 |  10.8  51.4  270   6  3   8.5   4.7
  5250  11.0  51.8  265   6  3  12.9   7.1 |  11.5  52.7  270   6  3   9.2   5.0
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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