Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 041250
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0550 MST Thursday, February 4, 2016

This forecast is for Thursday, February 4, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 28.0 F/-2.2 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 90 ft/min (0.5 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 9176 ft MSL (4337 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 29.0 F/-2.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1315 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast opaque high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6630 ft MSL (1791 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 02/05....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:18:09 / 17:36:58 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 18 min 49 sec (618 min 49 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:27:54 MST... 34.71 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/04/2016 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 21748 ft MSL (16909 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11523 ft MSL (6684 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +21.5
K index......................... -20.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -54.4 -65.9   300   34   18  -0.2  -0.1  115.7 240.3    66.0      M    M
 45000  -54.1 -65.4   300   50   26  -2.1  -1.2   90.9 195.6    55.7      M    M
 40000  -63.1 -81.6   315   45   23 -11.7  -6.4   53.1 127.5    35.3      M    M
 38000  -68.1 -90.6   300   49   25   1.3   0.7   36.4  97.5    25.2      M    M
 36000  -63.0 -81.4   310   44   23   9.0   4.9   33.9  93.1    24.4      M    M
 34000  -57.7 -71.9   305   57   29   6.2   3.4   33.4  92.1    24.6      M    M
 32000  -53.1 -63.6   305   58   30   9.5   5.2   31.7  89.1    24.1      M    M
 30000  -47.5 -53.5   305   55   28   8.0   4.4   31.4  88.5    24.5      M    M
 29000  -45.1 -49.2   305   54   28   8.0   4.4   30.5  86.8    24.1      M    M
 28000  -42.7 -44.9   305   53   27   8.0   4.4   29.7  85.5    23.9      M    M
 27000  -40.3 -40.5   305   52   27   8.0   4.4   29.1  84.3    23.7      M    M
 26000  -37.8 -36.0   305   51   26   8.8   4.8   28.6  83.5    23.6      M    M
 25000  -35.1 -31.2   305   50   26   9.0   4.9   28.3  83.0    23.7      M    M
 24000  -32.4 -26.3   310   46   24   9.0   4.9   28.0  82.4    23.7      M    M
 23000  -29.7 -21.5   310   44   23   8.7   4.8   27.7  81.8    23.7      M    M
 22000  -27.1 -16.8   315   42   22   8.7   4.7   27.3  81.2    23.7      M    M
 21000  -25.5 -13.9   320   41   21   3.7   2.0   25.8  78.4    22.7      M    M
 20000  -23.5 -10.3   325   40   21  -3.2  -1.8   24.8  76.6    22.1      M    M
 19500  -23.5 -10.3   325   38   20   6.8   3.7   22.1  71.8    20.0      M    M
 19000  -22.3  -8.1   325   37   19   8.1   4.4   21.8  71.3    19.9      M    M
 18500  -21.0  -5.8   325   36   19   8.5   4.7   21.6  70.9    19.8      M    M
 18000  -20.1  -4.2   325   35   18   4.2   2.3   20.9  69.7    19.4      M    M
 17500  -19.5  -3.1   330   35   18   4.6   2.5   20.0  68.0    18.7      M    M
 17000  -18.8  -1.8   330   34   18   5.6   3.1   19.2  66.5    18.0      M    M
 16500  -17.7   0.1   335   33   17   7.7   4.2   18.7  65.7    17.7      M    M
 16000  -16.6   2.1   335   33   17   7.6   4.2   18.4  65.1    17.5      M    M
 15500  -15.5   4.1   340   31   16   4.0   2.2   18.0  64.3    17.2      M    M
 15000  -15.2   4.6   345   29   15   2.4   1.3   16.6  61.8    16.1      M    M
 14500  -14.8   5.4   345   28   15   3.2   1.8   15.4  59.7    15.2      M    M
 14000  -14.0   6.8   345   28   14   1.2   0.6   14.5  58.2    14.6      M    M
 13500  -14.9   5.2   330   25   13  -3.4  -1.9   12.0  53.5    12.3      M    M
 13000  -14.5   5.9   315   24   13 -12.2  -6.7   10.8  51.5    11.3      M    M
 12500  -16.4   2.5   305   25   13   2.0   1.1    7.1  44.8     7.9      M    M
 12000  -16.1   3.0   290   27   14   4.3   2.4    5.9  42.6     6.9      M    M
 11500  -15.4   4.3   285   25   13   4.7   2.6    5.0  41.1     6.1      M    M
 11000  -14.7   5.5   285   24   12   5.3   2.9    4.3  39.7     5.4      M    M
 10500  -13.9   7.0   280   22   11   7.4   4.0    3.5  38.3     4.7      M    M
 10250  -13.6   7.5   275   21   11  -3.2  -1.7    3.2  37.7     4.4      M    M
 10000  -14.5   5.9   275   20   10 -15.7  -8.6    1.4  34.5     2.7      M    M
  9750  -15.3   4.5   275   17    9  -4.5  -2.5   -0.3  31.5     1.1      M    M
  9500  -15.2   4.6   270   15    8   4.6   2.5   -0.9  30.3     0.5      M    M
  9250  -14.9   5.2   270   12    6   4.3   2.3   -1.3  29.6     0.2      M    M
  9000  -14.5   5.9   265    9    5   4.1   2.2   -1.8  28.8    -0.3    280  1.4
  8750  -14.2   6.4   260    8    4   7.1   3.9   -2.1  28.1    -0.6    261  1.3
  8500  -13.5   7.7   250    7    3   9.4   5.2   -2.2  28.0    -0.7    233  1.2
  8250  -12.8   9.0   240    6    3   8.8   4.8   -2.3  27.9    -0.7    206  1.0
  8000  -12.2  10.0   230    5    3   9.0   5.0   -2.3  27.8    -0.8    179  0.9
  7750  -11.5  11.3   200    6    3   8.7   4.8   -2.4  27.7    -0.9    151  0.8
  7500  -10.8  12.6   180    8    4   9.7   5.3   -2.5  27.6    -0.9    124  0.6
  7250  -10.2  13.6   170   11    6   6.1   3.4   -2.5  27.5    -1.0     96  0.5
  7000   -9.9  14.2   165   14    7   5.4   2.9   -2.9  26.7    -1.4     80  0.4
  6750   -9.6  14.7   160   17    9  -3.5  -1.9   -3.4  25.9    -1.9     64  0.3
  6500  -10.4  13.3   155   20   10 -11.0  -6.0   -4.9  23.1    -3.4     80  0.4
  6250  -10.8  12.6   150   22   11   0.3   0.2   -6.1  21.0    -4.5     84  0.4
  6000  -10.5  13.1   145   25   13   4.1   2.2   -6.6  20.2    -5.0     69  0.4
  5750  -10.2  13.6   140   25   13   4.3   2.3   -7.1  19.3    -5.5     54  0.3
  5500  -10.0  14.0   135   24   12  -0.2  -0.1   -7.5  18.4    -6.0     39  0.2
  5250  -10.3  13.5   130   22   12  -5.1  -2.8   -8.6  16.6    -7.1     41  0.2
  5000  -10.7  12.7   125   17    9  -6.8  -3.7   -9.7  14.5    -8.2     45  0.2

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/04/2016 at 0800 MST          |       02/04/2016 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -10.7  LI... +284.8             | K index... -2.5  LI... +283.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.9                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -54.3 -65.7  295  39 20  -0.2  -0.1 | -54.5 -66.1  295  35 18   0.3   0.1
 45000 -54.6 -66.3  295  51 26  -0.2  -0.1 | -54.1 -65.4  295  47 24   0.2   0.1
 40000 -60.6 -77.1  300  42 22  -4.6  -2.5 | -58.2 -72.8  275  33 17  -3.0  -1.6
 38000 -62.3 -80.1  295  40 21   3.0   1.6 | -59.4 -74.9  260  33 17   0.6   0.3
 36000 -60.4 -76.7  285  46 24   3.1   1.7 | -59.0 -74.2  255  45 23   0.7   0.4
 34000 -58.5 -73.3  275  54 28   6.2   3.4 | -58.6 -73.5  250  57 30   2.7   1.5
 32000 -53.6 -64.5  275  48 25   8.2   4.5 | -54.3 -65.7  245  54 28   7.4   4.1
 30000 -48.6 -55.5  280  43 22   8.6   4.7 | -49.8 -57.6  245  49 25   8.1   4.4
 29000 -46.1 -51.0  280  42 22   8.6   4.7 | -47.3 -53.1  245  45 23   8.3   4.6
 28000 -43.5 -46.3  275  41 21   8.6   4.7 | -44.8 -48.6  240  42 21   8.3   4.6
 27000 -40.9 -41.6  275  41 21   8.7   4.7 | -42.3 -44.1  240  38 19   8.4   4.6
 26000 -38.5 -37.3  275  39 20   7.9   4.4 | -39.9 -39.8  240  35 18   8.0   4.4
 25000 -36.1 -33.0  275  37 19   8.0   4.4 | -37.4 -35.3  240  33 17   8.0   4.4
 24000 -33.7 -28.7  275  35 18   8.0   4.4 | -35.0 -31.0  245  31 16   8.1   4.4
 23000 -31.4 -24.5  280  32 17   7.6   4.2 | -32.7 -26.9  245  30 15   7.7   4.2
 22000 -29.1 -20.4  280  30 15   7.6   4.2 | -29.8 -21.6  240  29 15   7.7   4.2
 21000 -26.3 -15.3  285  27 14   7.2   3.9 | -27.6 -17.7  240  29 15   7.3   4.0
 20000 -24.2 -11.6  290  25 13   7.0   3.8 | -25.5 -13.9  240  25 13   7.0   3.8
 19500 -23.2  -9.8  290  24 12   7.0   3.8 | -24.4 -11.9  240  24 12   7.0   3.8
 19000 -22.1  -7.8  290  23 12   7.0   3.8 | -23.4 -10.1  240  22 11   7.0   3.8
 18500 -21.1  -6.0  295  22 11   7.1   3.9 | -22.3  -8.1  240  21 11   6.3   3.5
 18000 -20.0  -4.0  295  21 11   7.1   3.9 | -21.5  -6.7  245  19 10   5.6   3.1
 17500 -18.9  -2.0  300  20 10   7.2   3.9 | -20.7  -5.3  245  17  9   5.6   3.1
 17000 -17.8  -0.0  305  19 10   7.4   4.0 | -19.8  -3.6  250  16  8   6.2   3.4
 16500 -16.7   1.9  305  19 10   7.4   4.1 | -18.9  -2.0  255  15  8   6.1   3.3
 16000 -15.7   3.7  310  18  9   6.9   3.8 | -17.9  -0.2  260  14  7   6.4   3.5
 15500 -14.6   5.7  310  18  9   6.8   3.7 | -17.0   1.4  265  14  7   6.4   3.5
 15000 -13.6   7.5  315  17  9   4.9   2.7 | -16.0   3.2  270  13  7   5.0   2.7
 14500 -13.1   8.4  315  17  9   3.7   2.0 | -15.5   4.1  275  14  7   4.0   2.2
 14000 -12.5   9.5  315  16  8   2.1   1.2 | -14.9   5.2  280  14  7   3.3   1.8
 13500 -12.5   9.5  310  16  8  -0.3  -0.2 | -14.5   5.9  285  15  8   2.4   1.3
 13000 -12.6   9.3  305  16  8  -0.7  -0.4 | -14.2   6.4  285  15  8   1.9   1.0
 12500 -12.8   9.0  305  17  9  -1.6  -0.9 | -14.0   6.8  285  15  8   0.9   0.5
 12000 -13.1   8.4  300  18  9  -1.2  -0.7 | -13.8   7.2  285  15  8   1.2   0.7
 11500 -13.2   8.2  295  17  9  -0.3  -0.1 | -13.6   7.5  280  14  7   1.8   1.0
 11000 -13.2   8.2  290  17  9   0.2   0.1 | -13.3   8.1  275  14  7   1.7   0.9
 10500 -13.1   8.4  280  16  8   0.9   0.5 | -13.1   8.4  270  14  7   1.6   0.9
 10250 -13.0   8.6  280  15  8   0.9   0.5 | -12.9   8.8  265  14  7   1.7   1.0
 10000 -13.0   8.6  275  15  8   0.9   0.5 | -12.8   9.0  265  13  7   2.4   1.3
  9750 -12.9   8.8  270  14  7   1.7   1.0 | -12.6   9.3  265  13  7   3.1   1.7
  9500 -12.7   9.1  270  14  7   2.5   1.4 | -12.3   9.9  260  13  6   3.3   1.8
  9250 -12.5   9.5  265  13  7   2.9   1.6 | -12.1  10.2  260  12  6   3.5   1.9
  9000 -12.3   9.9  260  12  6   3.5   1.9 | -11.8  10.8  255  11  6   3.7   2.0
  8750 -12.0  10.4  260  11  6   3.8   2.1 | -11.5  11.3  255  10  5   3.8   2.1
  8500 -11.7  10.9  250   9  5   4.1   2.2 | -11.2  11.8  250   9  4   4.0   2.2
  8250 -11.5  11.3  240   8  4   3.3   1.8 | -10.9  12.4  240   7  4   3.8   2.1
  8000 -11.2  11.8  230   7  3   2.3   1.3 | -10.7  12.7  230   6  3   3.3   1.8
  7750 -11.0  12.2  215   6  3   3.8   2.1 | -10.4  13.3  215   5  3   4.3   2.4
  7500 -10.7  12.7  200   6  3   3.9   2.2 | -10.0  14.0  200   5  3   5.1   2.8
  7250 -10.5  13.1  185   7  4   2.3   1.3 |  -9.7  14.5  190   6  3   4.6   2.5
  7000 -10.3  13.5  180   9  4   2.3   1.2 |  -9.3  15.3  185   6  3   5.1   2.8
  6750 -10.1  13.8  175  10  5   2.2   1.2 |  -8.9  16.0  175   7  4   3.2   1.7
  6500 -10.0  14.0  170  11  6   0.7   0.4 |  -8.8  16.2  175   6  3   2.8   1.6
  6250 -10.0  14.0  160  10  5   0.4   0.2 |  -8.5  16.7  170   6  3   4.3   2.4
  6000 -10.0  14.0  155  10  5  -1.9  -1.0 |  -8.2  17.2  165   5  2   4.7   2.6
  5750 -10.4  13.3  150  10  5  -8.3  -4.5 |  -7.7  18.1  165   4  2  10.4   5.7
  5500 -11.1  12.0  135   7  3 -10.6  -5.8 |  -6.7  19.9  165   4  2  17.2   9.4
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           02/04/2016 at 1400 MST          |       02/04/2016 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +7.7  LI... +281.3              | K index... +9.6  LI... +279.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.2                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.0 -67.0  290  31 16   0.4   0.2 | -54.6 -66.3  290  30 15   0.7   0.4
 45000 -54.3 -65.7  290  42 22   0.5   0.3 | -53.5 -64.3  290  34 17   0.7   0.4
 40000 -54.7 -66.5  270  41 21  -0.3  -0.2 | -53.6 -64.5  295  38 19  -0.2  -0.1
 38000 -54.9 -66.8  265  41 21  -0.6  -0.4 | -53.7 -64.7  295  38 20   0.6   0.3
 36000 -55.3 -67.5  250  39 20  -0.6  -0.4 | -53.3 -63.9  290  35 18   0.5   0.3
 34000 -55.7 -68.3  240  39 20  -1.1  -0.6 | -53.0 -63.4  290  32 17   0.5   0.3
 32000 -53.8 -64.8  230  40 21   3.8   2.1 | -51.9 -61.4  280  30 15   1.8   1.0
 30000 -51.2 -60.2  220  42 22   6.2   3.4 | -50.8 -59.4  275  28 14   3.0   1.6
 29000 -48.9 -56.0  220  39 20   7.6   4.2 | -49.3 -56.7  270  26 13   5.5   3.0
 28000 -46.6 -51.9  225  36 18   7.6   4.2 | -47.7 -53.9  265  24 12   5.5   3.0
 27000 -44.4 -47.9  225  32 17   7.6   4.2 | -46.0 -50.8  255  22 11   5.5   3.0
 26000 -41.9 -43.4  230  29 15   8.4   4.6 | -44.0 -47.2  255  21 11   8.0   4.4
 25000 -39.4 -38.9  235  25 13   8.4   4.6 | -41.5 -42.7  265  19 10   8.1   4.5
 24000 -36.9 -34.4  245  23 12   8.4   4.6 | -39.1 -38.4  275  17  9   8.1   4.5
 23000 -34.6 -30.3  255  21 11   7.7   4.2 | -36.6 -33.9  285  17  9   8.6   4.7
 22000 -32.3 -26.1  265  20 10   7.7   4.2 | -34.0 -29.2  295  19 10   8.7   4.8
 21000 -30.0 -22.0  275  20 10   7.7   4.2 | -31.5 -24.7  300  21 11   8.8   4.8
 20000 -27.8 -18.0  280  20 10   7.5   4.1 | -29.1 -20.4  310  22 12   7.9   4.3
 19500 -26.6 -15.9  285  20 10   7.5   4.1 | -27.9 -18.2  315  23 12   7.9   4.3
 19000 -25.5 -13.9  285  20 10   7.5   4.1 | -26.7 -16.1  315  24 12   7.9   4.3
 18500 -24.4 -11.9  290  19 10   7.5   4.1 | -25.5 -13.9  320  25 13   8.0   4.4
 18000 -22.8  -9.0  290  19 10   7.5   4.1 | -23.9 -11.0  325  26 13   7.2   4.0
 17500 -21.7  -7.1  290  19 10   7.4   4.1 | -22.8  -9.0  325  26 13   7.2   4.0
 17000 -20.6  -5.1  290  19 10   6.9   3.8 | -21.8  -7.2  330  26 13   6.8   3.7
 16500 -19.6  -3.3  285  18  9   7.0   3.9 | -20.8  -5.4  330  25 13   6.8   3.7
 16000 -18.7  -1.7  285  18  9   5.3   2.9 | -19.8  -3.6  330  25 13   6.8   3.8
 15500 -17.9  -0.2  290  18  9   5.3   2.9 | -18.8  -1.8  335  24 12   6.9   3.8
 15000 -17.1   1.2  290  18  9   4.6   2.5 | -17.8  -0.0  340  24 12   6.3   3.5
 14500 -16.5   2.3  290  18  9   4.3   2.4 | -16.9   1.6  340  23 12   6.0   3.3
 14000 -15.9   3.4  290  18  9   3.5   1.9 | -16.0   3.2  345  22 11   5.2   2.9
 13500 -15.5   4.1  290  17  9   2.7   1.5 | -15.4   4.3  345  21 11   4.2   2.3
 13000 -15.1   4.8  290  16  8   2.8   1.5 | -14.8   5.4  345  19 10   3.9   2.1
 12500 -14.6   5.7  290  15  8   3.1   1.7 | -14.3   6.3  340  17  9   3.3   1.8
 12000 -14.2   6.4  285  14  7   2.9   1.6 | -13.8   7.2  335  16  8   3.0   1.7
 11500 -13.8   7.2  280  13  7   2.6   1.4 | -13.4   7.9  325  14  7   2.6   1.4
 11000 -13.4   7.9  275  13  6   2.4   1.3 | -13.0   8.6  315  12  6   2.3   1.3
 10500 -13.1   8.4  270  12  6   2.2   1.2 | -12.7   9.1  305  10  5   2.1   1.1
 10250 -12.9   8.8  265  12  6   2.3   1.3 | -12.5   9.5  300   9  5   2.2   1.2
 10000 -12.7   9.1  260  12  6   3.2   1.8 | -12.4   9.7  290   9  4   1.6   0.9
  9750 -12.4   9.7  260  12  6   3.7   2.0 | -12.2  10.0  285   8  4   3.7   2.0
  9500 -12.2  10.0  255  11  6   3.7   2.0 | -11.8  10.8  280   8  4   5.7   3.2
  9250 -11.9  10.6  250  11  6   3.6   2.0 | -11.5  11.3  275   9  4   5.3   2.9
  9000 -11.6  11.1  250  10  5   3.5   1.9 | -11.0  12.2  270   9  5   5.6   3.1
  8750 -11.4  11.5  250  10  5   3.6   2.0 | -10.6  12.9  265   9  5   5.6   3.1
  8500 -11.1  12.0  245   9  5   3.7   2.0 | -10.2  13.6  265   9  5   5.8   3.2
  8250 -10.9  12.4  245   8  4   2.6   1.4 |  -9.8  14.4  265   9  5   3.9   2.1
  8000 -10.7  12.7  245   6  3   1.7   0.9 |  -9.6  14.7  265   8  4   2.6   1.4
  7750 -10.6  12.9  245   5  2   2.6   1.4 |  -9.4  15.1  265   8  4   2.6   1.4
  7500 -10.3  13.5  245   4  2   3.5   1.9 |  -9.3  15.3  265   6  3   1.8   1.0
  7250 -10.1  13.8  250   3  2   3.6   2.0 |  -9.1  15.6  265   5  3   1.7   0.9
  7000  -9.8  14.4  260   3  1   3.2   1.8 |  -9.0  15.8  270   4  2   1.2   0.7
  6750  -9.6  14.7  275   2  1   4.6   2.5 |  -8.9  16.0  275   3  1   3.1   1.7
  6500  -9.1  15.6  285   2  1   7.9   4.4 |  -8.6  16.5  280   2  1   5.6   3.1
  6250  -8.5  16.7  290   3  1   9.0   4.9 |  -8.2  17.2  290   2  1   5.5   3.0
  6000  -7.8  18.0  290   3  1   9.0   4.9 |  -7.8  18.0  300   1  1   5.8   3.2
  5750  -7.1  19.2  290   3  2  12.1   6.6 |  -7.2  19.0  305   1  1   8.9   4.9
  5500  -6.0  21.2  290   3  2  16.2   8.9 |  -6.4  20.5  305   1  1  13.1   7.2
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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