Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 231242
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0642 MDT Monday, March 23, 2015

This forecast is for Monday, March 23, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 63.2 F/17.3 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1259 ft/min (6.4 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 18868 ft MSL (14032 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 70.0 F/21.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1800 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ More than 30 mph
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 11689 ft MSL (6853 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 03/24...... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:13:06 / 19:27:54 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 14 min 48 sec (734 min 48 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:20:40 MDT... 52.02 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 03/23/2015 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 10797 ft MSL (5961 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15960 ft MSL (11124 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 16815 ft MSL (11980 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +1.2
K index......................... +15.6

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -58.9 -74.0   265   49   25   5.4   3.0  104.2 219.5    47.2      M    M
 45000  -55.3 -67.5   250   55   28   0.9   0.5   84.4 184.0    38.6      M    M
 40000  -55.7 -68.3   250   63   33 -15.6  -8.5   60.6 141.2    25.8      M    M
 38000  -61.1 -78.0   245   72   37   2.2   1.2   43.3 109.9    14.8      M    M
 36000  -59.8 -75.6   240   80   41   5.4   3.0   36.8  98.3    10.8      M    M
 34000  -55.5 -67.9   240   78   40   8.4   4.6   34.4  94.0     9.4      M    M
 32000  -49.9 -57.8   240   70   36   8.7   4.8   33.1  91.5     8.7      M    M
 30000  -44.6 -48.3   240   65   33   8.9   4.9   32.4  90.3     8.4      M    M
 29000  -42.0 -43.6   240   63   32   8.9   4.9   31.8  89.2     8.1      M    M
 28000  -39.3 -38.7   240   61   31   8.9   4.9   31.4  88.4     7.8      M    M
 27000  -36.6 -33.9   245   59   30   8.9   4.9   31.1  87.9     7.7      M    M
 26000  -34.0 -29.2   245   57   29   8.9   4.9   30.9  87.6     7.6      M    M
 25000  -31.3 -24.3   245   55   28   8.8   4.8   30.8  87.5     7.7      M    M
 24000  -29.4 -20.9   235   55   28   2.8   1.5   29.5  85.1     6.7      M    M
 23000  -28.3 -18.9   230   52   27   3.7   2.0   27.2  80.9     4.9      M    M
 22000  -26.6 -15.9   225   49   25   9.5   5.2   25.8  78.5     3.8      M    M
 21000  -23.8 -10.8   220   46   24   9.5   5.2   25.5  78.0     3.7      M    M
 20000  -21.5  -6.7   215   43   22   7.1   3.9   24.8  76.6     3.1      M    M
 19500  -20.6  -5.1   215   40   21   4.6   2.5   24.1  75.4     2.6      M    M
 19000  -20.8  -5.4   220   37   19  -5.5  -3.0   22.2  72.0     0.9      M    M
 18500  -20.5  -4.9   220   33   17   7.9   4.3   21.0  69.7    -0.2   1336  6.8
 18000  -19.1  -2.4   220   32   17   7.3   4.0   20.2  68.3    -1.0   1270  6.5
 17500  -17.8  -0.0   220   32   16   8.7   4.8   19.9  67.8    -1.3   1219  6.2
 17000  -16.6   2.1   215   32   16   8.7   4.8   19.7  67.4    -1.5   1165  5.9
 16500  -15.3   4.5   215   31   16   8.7   4.8   19.5  67.1    -1.6   1112  5.7
 16000  -14.0   6.8   215   31   16   8.7   4.8   19.4  66.9    -1.8   1059  5.4
 15500  -12.7   9.1   215   28   15   9.0   4.9   19.2  66.5    -2.0   1006  5.1
 15000  -11.3  11.7   215   26   13   9.8   5.4   19.1  66.4    -2.1    948  4.8
 14500   -9.8  14.4   215   24   12   9.8   5.4   19.1  66.4    -2.1    889  4.5
 14000   -8.4  16.9   215   22   11   9.3   5.1   19.2  66.5    -2.1    831  4.2
 13500   -7.1  19.2   220   23   12   8.6   4.7   18.9  66.1    -2.3    778  4.0
 13000   -5.8  21.6   225   23   12   8.6   4.7   18.7  65.7    -2.5    725  3.7
 12500   -4.5  23.9   230   24   12   8.6   4.7   18.6  65.4    -2.7    672  3.4
 12000   -3.3  26.1   235   25   13   8.5   4.7   18.4  65.1    -2.9    619  3.1
 11500   -2.0  28.4   240   26   14   9.3   5.1   18.2  64.8    -3.1    565  2.9
 11000   -0.5  31.1   245   28   14   9.4   5.2   18.2  64.7    -3.1    508  2.6
 10500    0.9  33.6   240   27   14   9.5   5.2   18.1  64.6    -3.2    451  2.3
 10250    1.6  34.9   240   26   14   9.4   5.1   18.1  64.6    -3.2    422  2.1
 10000    2.3  36.1   240   26   14   9.0   4.9   18.1  64.5    -3.3    394  2.0
  9750    2.9  37.2   240   27   14   8.8   4.8   18.0  64.4    -3.4    367  1.9
  9500    3.6  38.5   240   28   14   8.9   4.9   17.9  64.3    -3.4    340  1.7
  9250    4.2  39.6   240   29   15   8.8   4.8   17.9  64.2    -3.5    313  1.6
  9000    4.9  40.8   240   30   15   8.8   4.8   17.8  64.1    -3.6    285  1.4
  8750    5.6  42.1   240   29   15   8.8   4.8   17.7  63.9    -3.6    258  1.3
  8500    6.2  43.2   240   27   14   8.8   4.8   17.7  63.8    -3.7    231  1.2
  8250    6.9  44.4   235   26   13   8.8   4.8   17.6  63.7    -3.8    204  1.0
  8000    7.5  45.5   235   24   12   8.8   4.8   17.6  63.6    -3.8    176  0.9
  7750    8.2  46.8   230   23   12   8.8   4.8   17.5  63.5    -3.9    149  0.8
  7500    8.9  48.0   230   22   11   8.8   4.8   17.4  63.3    -4.0    122  0.6
  7250    9.5  49.1   225   21   11   8.8   4.8   17.3  63.2    -4.1     95  0.5
  7000   10.2  50.4   220   20   10   8.8   4.9   17.3  63.1    -4.2     68  0.3
  6750   10.9  51.6   220   19   10   8.8   4.8   17.2  62.9    -4.3     40  0.2
  6500   11.5  52.7   220   17    9   8.9   4.9   17.1  62.8    -4.4     13  0.1
  6250   12.2  54.0   215   16    8   8.7   4.7   17.0  62.6    -4.4      M    M
  6000   12.8  55.0   215   14    7   9.5   5.2   16.9  62.5    -4.5      M    M
  5750   13.3  55.9   210   11    6  -1.2  -0.6   16.7  62.0    -4.8      M    M
  5500   12.7  54.9   200    8    4 -10.2  -5.6   15.3  59.6    -6.2      M    M
  5250   12.1  53.8   175    5    3  -6.8  -3.7   14.0  57.2    -7.6      M    M
  5000   11.5  52.7   125    5    2  -8.5  -4.6   12.7  54.9    -8.9      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/23/2015 at 0900 MDT          |       03/23/2015 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +15.2  LI... +1.3               | K index... +9.1  LI... +1.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -5.9
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.1 -72.6  260  33 17   3.2   1.8 | -57.8 -72.0  260  36 18   3.3   1.8
 45000 -53.1 -63.6  255  47 24   0.4   0.2 | -52.8 -63.0  255  50 26   1.6   0.9
 40000 -56.5 -69.7  250  66 34  -2.2  -1.2 | -54.9 -66.8  250  58 30  -1.5  -0.8
 38000 -56.8 -70.2  250  70 36   1.7   1.0 | -55.5 -67.9  250  63 32   0.1   0.0
 36000 -55.8 -68.4  255  70 36   1.7   0.9 | -55.4 -67.7  255  69 36   0.1   0.0
 34000 -54.5 -66.1  255  70 36   6.3   3.5 | -55.3 -67.5  260  76 39   4.4   2.4
 32000 -50.3 -58.5  255  68 35   6.9   3.8 | -50.9 -59.6  260  79 41   6.4   3.5
 30000 -45.5 -49.9  255  65 34   7.6   4.2 | -46.9 -52.4  260  80 41   8.0   4.4
 29000 -43.3 -45.9  255  63 33   7.6   4.2 | -44.5 -48.1  260  76 39   8.0   4.4
 28000 -41.0 -41.8  255  61 32   7.6   4.2 | -42.1 -43.8  265  73 38   8.0   4.4
 27000 -38.7 -37.7  255  59 31   7.5   4.1 | -39.7 -39.5  270  70 36   8.1   4.5
 26000 -36.5 -33.7  255  56 29   7.4   4.1 | -37.2 -35.0  270  66 34   8.3   4.6
 25000 -34.3 -29.7  255  52 27   7.4   4.1 | -34.7 -30.5  270  61 32   8.3   4.6
 24000 -32.0 -25.6  255  48 25   7.5   4.1 | -32.2 -26.0  275  57 29   8.2   4.5
 23000 -29.7 -21.5  255  46 24   7.9   4.4 | -29.8 -21.6  275  53 27   8.0   4.4
 22000 -27.3 -17.1  250  45 23   7.9   4.4 | -27.4 -17.3  275  49 25   8.0   4.4
 21000 -25.0 -13.0  250  43 22   7.3   4.0 | -25.0 -13.0  270  46 23   7.9   4.3
 20000 -22.9  -9.2  245  39 20   7.0   3.9 | -22.6  -8.7  265  43 22   7.9   4.3
 19500 -21.8  -7.2  240  37 19   7.0   3.8 | -21.5  -6.7  265  42 22   7.9   4.3
 19000 -20.7  -5.3  240  35 18   7.0   3.8 | -20.3  -4.5  260  41 21   7.9   4.3
 18500 -19.7  -3.5  235  33 17   6.4   3.5 | -19.1  -2.4  260  40 21   7.4   4.0
 18000 -18.8  -1.8  235  31 16   5.8   3.2 | -18.1  -0.6  255  39 20   6.8   3.7
 17500 -18.0  -0.4  235  29 15   5.8   3.2 | -17.1   1.2  255  38 20   6.9   3.8
 17000 -17.0   1.4  230  30 15   7.1   3.9 | -16.1   3.0  250  37 19   5.5   3.0
 16500 -16.0   3.2  235  32 17   7.0   3.8 | -15.3   4.5  250  36 19   5.6   3.1
 16000 -14.9   5.2  235  34 18   7.5   4.1 | -14.4   6.1  245  35 18   5.9   3.2
 15500 -13.8   7.2  230  33 17   7.7   4.2 | -13.6   7.5  245  34 17   6.0   3.3
 15000 -12.7   9.1  230  32 17   7.6   4.2 | -12.2  10.0  240  33 17   7.5   4.1
 14500 -11.0  12.2  230  31 16   7.5   4.1 | -11.1  12.0  240  32 16   7.4   4.1
 14000 -10.0  14.0  235  30 15   7.5   4.1 | -10.0  14.0  235  31 16   8.2   4.5
 13500  -8.9  16.0  235  28 14   7.5   4.1 |  -8.8  16.2  235  29 15   8.3   4.6
 13000  -7.8  18.0  240  27 14   8.2   4.5 |  -7.6  18.3  235  28 14   7.9   4.4
 12500  -6.5  20.3  240  25 13   8.4   4.6 |  -6.5  20.3  235  26 13   7.8   4.3
 12000  -5.3  22.5  245  24 12   9.4   5.1 |  -5.4  22.3  235  24 12   8.6   4.7
 11500  -3.8  25.2  245  24 12   9.7   5.3 |  -4.0  24.8  235  22 12   9.0   4.9
 11000  -2.4  27.7  250  23 12   9.3   5.1 |  -2.7  27.1  235  21 11   8.3   4.6
 10500  -1.1  30.0  250  23 12   9.9   5.4 |  -1.5  29.3  235  20 10   7.4   4.1
 10250  -0.4  31.3  250  23 12   6.1   3.3 |  -0.9  30.4  235  20 10  11.1   6.1
 10000  -0.0  32.0  250  23 12   7.1   3.9 |   0.1  32.2  235  19 10  11.7   6.4
  9750   0.8  33.4  250  23 12  11.5   6.3 |   0.8  33.4  235  18  9   8.3   4.6
  9500   1.6  34.9  250  22 12  10.9   6.0 |   1.4  34.5  235  18  9   9.7   5.3
  9250   2.4  36.3  250  22 11   9.0   4.9 |   2.1  35.8  235  17  9   7.6   4.2
  9000   2.9  37.2  250  21 11   8.0   4.4 |   2.6  36.7  235  15  8   7.8   4.3
  8750   3.6  38.5  250  21 11   9.6   5.3 |   3.3  37.9  235  14  7   9.9   5.4
  8500   4.3  39.7  250  20 10   9.2   5.0 |   4.0  39.2  230  12  6   9.2   5.0
  8250   5.0  41.0  245  20 10   8.8   4.8 |   4.7  40.5  230  11  6  10.1   5.6
  8000   5.6  42.1  245  19 10   7.7   4.2 |   5.5  41.9  230  11  6  10.2   5.6
  7750   6.1  43.0  245  18  9   7.1   3.9 |   6.2  43.2  230  11  6   9.4   5.2
  7500   6.7  44.1  245  17  9   6.5   3.6 |   6.9  44.4  230  11  6   9.6   5.2
  7250   7.1  44.8  240  16  8   5.8   3.2 |   7.6  45.7  230  10  5   9.9   5.4
  7000   7.5  45.5  235  15  8   5.2   2.9 |   8.4  47.1  235  10  5  10.0   5.5
  6750   7.9  46.2  225  14  7   4.9   2.7 |   9.1  48.4  235  10  5   9.5   5.2
  6500   8.2  46.8  210  13  7   1.2   0.6 |   9.9  49.8  235  10  5  10.3   5.7
  6250   8.1  46.6  205  11  6  -1.4  -0.8 |  10.7  51.3  235  10  5  11.4   6.3
  6000   8.0  46.4  190  10  5  -1.3  -0.7 |  11.5  52.7  235   9  5  10.7   5.9
  5750   7.9  46.2  175   8  4   0.6   0.3 |  12.3  54.1  235   9  5  11.3   6.2
  5500   8.1  46.6  170   7  4   4.3   2.4 |  13.2  55.8  235   9  5  13.2   7.3
  5250   8.3  46.9  170   7  4   3.8   2.1 |  14.2  57.6  235   9  5  13.9   7.6
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           03/23/2015 at 1500 MDT          |       03/23/2015 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +18.3  LI... +0.2               | K index... +13.4  LI... +0.2
CAPE... +12.7  CIN... -9.0                 | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -21.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.9 -70.4  255  38 19   2.3   1.3 | -56.7 -70.1  250  35 18   1.7   0.9
 45000 -53.4 -64.1  255  53 27   1.6   0.9 | -54.0 -65.2  260  49 25   1.3   0.7
 40000 -53.5 -64.3  260  55 28  -0.1  -0.1 | -54.3 -65.7  265  54 28  -0.2  -0.1
 38000 -53.9 -65.0  260  59 30  -1.4  -0.8 | -54.5 -66.1  265  58 30  -0.6  -0.3
 36000 -54.7 -66.5  260  67 34  -1.4  -0.8 | -54.8 -66.6  265  63 33  -0.6  -0.3
 34000 -55.4 -67.7  265  75 39   3.1   1.7 | -55.1 -67.2  265  69 35   2.5   1.3
 32000 -51.3 -60.3  260  78 40   6.1   3.3 | -52.0 -61.6  265  72 37   5.1   2.8
 30000 -47.5 -53.5  260  79 40   7.8   4.3 | -48.3 -54.9  260  74 38   8.1   4.4
 29000 -45.2 -49.4  260  75 39   7.7   4.2 | -45.9 -50.6  260  71 37   7.9   4.3
 28000 -42.8 -45.0  265  72 37   7.7   4.2 | -43.6 -46.5  260  68 35   7.9   4.3
 27000 -40.5 -40.9  265  69 35   8.0   4.4 | -41.2 -42.2  260  66 34   8.1   4.4
 26000 -38.0 -36.4  265  65 34   8.6   4.7 | -38.6 -37.5  260  63 32   8.7   4.8
 25000 -35.4 -31.7  265  61 32   8.6   4.7 | -36.0 -32.8  260  60 31   8.7   4.8
 24000 -32.8 -27.0  265  57 30   8.5   4.7 | -33.4 -28.1  260  58 30   8.6   4.7
 23000 -30.4 -22.7  265  54 28   8.0   4.4 | -31.1 -24.0  260  55 28   7.6   4.2
 22000 -28.0 -18.4  265  50 26   8.0   4.4 | -28.8 -19.8  260  52 27   7.6   4.2
 21000 -25.6 -14.1  265  47 24   7.9   4.4 | -26.6 -15.9  260  49 25   7.8   4.3
 20000 -23.2  -9.8  260  46 23   7.9   4.3 | -24.2 -11.6  260  48 25   8.0   4.4
 19500 -22.0  -7.6  255  45 23   7.9   4.3 | -23.0  -9.4  255  47 24   8.0   4.4
 19000 -20.9  -5.6  255  44 23   7.9   4.3 | -21.8  -7.2  255  47 24   8.0   4.4
 18500 -19.7  -3.5  250  44 23   7.4   4.1 | -20.6  -5.1  255  46 24   8.1   4.5
 18000 -18.7  -1.7  250  43 22   6.8   3.7 | -19.4  -2.9  255  45 23   8.2   4.5
 17500 -17.7   0.1  250  42 22   6.8   3.7 | -18.2  -0.8  255  44 22   8.2   4.5
 17000 -16.6   2.1  245  41 21   7.5   4.1 | -16.9   1.6  255  42 22   8.6   4.7
 16500 -15.5   4.1  245  39 20   7.5   4.1 | -15.6   3.9  255  40 21   8.5   4.7
 16000 -14.4   6.1  245  37 19   8.0   4.4 | -14.4   6.1  255  38 20   8.8   4.8
 15500 -13.2   8.2  240  36 18   8.2   4.5 | -13.1   8.4  250  37 19   8.8   4.8
 15000 -11.3  11.7  240  33 17   8.8   4.8 | -11.7  10.9  250  36 18   9.0   5.0
 14500 -10.1  13.8  235  31 16   8.8   4.8 |  -9.7  14.5  250  34 17   9.3   5.1
 14000  -8.8  16.2  235  29 15   8.7   4.8 |  -8.3  17.1  250  33 17   9.2   5.1
 13500  -7.5  18.5  230  27 14   8.7   4.8 |  -6.9  19.6  245  32 16   9.2   5.1
 13000  -6.2  20.8  230  26 13   8.6   4.7 |  -5.6  21.9  245  31 16   9.2   5.0
 12500  -5.0  23.0  230  24 13   8.6   4.7 |  -4.2  24.4  245  30 15   9.2   5.0
 12000  -3.7  25.3  230  23 12   8.7   4.8 |  -2.8  27.0  245  29 15   9.2   5.0
 11500  -2.4  27.7  230  21 11   8.8   4.8 |  -1.5  29.3  245  28 14   9.2   5.0
 11000  -1.1  30.0  235  19 10   7.8   4.3 |  -0.1  31.8  245  27 14   8.5   4.7
 10500  -0.0  32.0  240  17  9   6.7   3.7 |   1.1  34.0  245  26 14   7.5   4.1
 10250   0.5  32.9  240  16  8  10.1   5.5 |   1.7  35.1  250  26 13  10.5   5.8
 10000   1.4  34.5  245  15  8  11.5   6.3 |   2.6  36.7  250  25 13  10.7   5.9
  9750   2.2  36.0  245  15  8   9.0   4.9 |   3.2  37.8  250  25 13   7.8   4.3
  9500   2.9  37.2  250  14  7   9.7   5.3 |   3.8  38.8  250  24 12   8.4   4.6
  9250   3.6  38.5  250  14  7   9.3   5.1 |   4.5  40.1  250  23 12   8.8   4.8
  9000   4.3  39.7  250  14  7   9.7   5.3 |   5.1  41.2  255  22 11   8.8   4.8
  8750   5.0  41.0  255  14  7  10.1   5.5 |   5.8  42.4  255  21 11   8.4   4.6
  8500   5.8  42.4  255  14  7  10.0   5.5 |   6.4  43.5  260  20 11   8.0   4.4
  8250   6.5  43.7  255  13  7  10.0   5.5 |   7.0  44.6  260  20 10   9.8   5.4
  8000   7.3  45.1  255  13  7  10.0   5.5 |   7.8  46.0  265  19 10  10.6   5.8
  7750   8.0  46.4  255  13  7   9.9   5.5 |   8.5  47.3  265  19 10   9.1   5.0
  7500   8.8  47.8  255  13  7  10.0   5.5 |   9.2  48.6  265  18  9   9.2   5.1
  7250   9.5  49.1  260  13  7  10.6   5.8 |   9.9  49.8  265  18  9  10.2   5.6
  7000  10.3  50.5  260  13  7  10.5   5.8 |  10.7  51.3  265  18  9  10.4   5.7
  6750  11.1  52.0  260  13  6   9.3   5.1 |  11.4  52.5  270  17  9   9.0   5.0
  6500  11.8  53.2  260  12  6   9.9   5.4 |  12.1  53.8  270  17  9   9.4   5.2
  6250  12.6  54.7  260  12  6  11.1   6.1 |  12.9  55.2  270  16  8  10.5   5.8
  6000  13.4  56.1  260  12  6  10.8   5.9 |  13.6  56.5  270  16  8  10.4   5.7
  5750  14.2  57.6  265  11  6  11.3   6.2 |  14.4  57.9  270  15  8   9.5   5.2
  5500  15.1  59.2  265  11  6  13.5   7.4 |  15.0  59.0  275  14  7   8.3   4.5
  5250  16.2  61.2  265  12  6  15.4   8.5 |  15.6  60.1  270  13  7   7.4   4.1
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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