Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 201224
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0524 MST Saturday, December 20, 2014

This forecast is for Saturday, December 20, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 44.1 F/6.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 7419 ft MSL (2580 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 41.0 F/5.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ 0600 MST
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5532 ft MSL (693 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 12/21....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:29:11 / 16:54:34 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 25 min 22 sec (565 min 22 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:11:53 MST... 27.52 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 12/20/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 13953 ft MSL (9114 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 9966 ft MSL (5126 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +9.9
K index......................... +10.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -57.0 -70.6   270   29   15  -1.0  -0.5  109.8 229.7    59.2      M    M
 45000  -58.1 -72.6   265   44   22   2.3   1.3   82.9 181.2    47.1      M    M
 40000  -58.9 -74.0   300   39   20  -0.9  -0.5   58.2 136.8    34.4      M    M
 38000  -58.5 -73.3   295   48   25  -3.6  -2.0   49.9 121.7    29.8      M    M
 36000  -58.9 -74.0   280   36   18   0.3   0.2   39.5 103.1    23.7      M    M
 34000  -57.5 -71.5   260   31   16   0.0   0.0   33.1  91.6    19.8      M    M
 32000  -55.1 -67.2   255   33   17   4.3   2.4   28.2  82.8    16.8      M    M
 30000  -50.9 -59.6   255   35   18   9.0   4.9   26.1  78.9    15.6      M    M
 29000  -48.2 -54.8   260   39   20   9.0   4.9   25.8  78.4    15.6      M    M
 28000  -45.5 -49.9   260   42   22   9.0   4.9   25.6  78.2    15.7      M    M
 27000  -42.8 -45.0   260   37   19   9.0   4.9   25.2  77.3    15.6      M    M
 26000  -40.1 -40.2   265   31   16   9.0   4.9   24.9  76.8    15.5      M    M
 25000  -37.4 -35.3   265   26   14   9.0   4.9   24.7  76.4    15.6      M    M
 24000  -34.7 -30.5   270   25   13   9.1   5.0   24.3  75.7    15.4      M    M
 23000  -32.2 -26.0   275   26   13   8.2   4.5   23.8  74.8    15.2      M    M
 22000  -29.8 -21.6   275   27   14   7.9   4.3   23.1  73.7    14.8      M    M
 21000  -27.5 -17.5   280   28   14   7.0   3.9   22.4  72.3    14.4      M    M
 20000  -25.4 -13.7   285   29   15   7.1   3.9   21.5  70.7    13.8      M    M
 19500  -23.8 -10.8   285   28   14   7.1   3.9   20.7  69.3    13.2      M    M
 19000  -22.7  -8.9   280   27   14   7.2   3.9   20.3  68.5    12.9      M    M
 18500  -21.7  -7.1   280   27   14   7.0   3.9   19.8  67.7    12.6      M    M
 18000  -20.6  -5.1   285   27   14   7.0   3.9   19.4  66.9    12.2      M    M
 17500  -19.6  -3.3   275   26   13   7.0   3.9   18.9  66.0    11.9      M    M
 17000  -18.5  -1.3   270   25   13   7.0   3.9   18.4  65.2    11.5      M    M
 16500  -17.5   0.5   270   23   12   7.0   3.9   18.0  64.3    11.2      M    M
 16000  -16.5   2.3   270   22   11   7.2   4.0   17.5  63.5    10.8      M    M
 15500  -15.4   4.3   270   23   12   7.2   4.0   17.1  62.7    10.5      M    M
 15000  -14.3   6.3   265   23   12   7.2   4.0   16.6  61.9    10.1      M    M
 14500  -13.3   8.1   265   24   12   7.2   4.0   16.2  61.2     9.8      M    M
 14000  -12.2  10.0   265   24   12   7.2   4.0   15.9  60.5     9.5      M    M
 13500  -11.1  12.0   265   21   11   7.3   4.0   15.4  59.8     9.1      M    M
 13000  -10.1  13.8   260   19   10   7.0   3.9   15.0  59.0     8.8      M    M
 12500   -9.0  15.8   260   16    8   7.1   3.9   14.5  58.2     8.4      M    M
 12000   -8.0  17.6   255   14    7   7.1   3.9   14.1  57.4     8.0      M    M
 11500   -7.0  19.4   260   14    7   5.9   3.3   13.7  56.6     7.6      M    M
 11000   -6.2  20.8   270   14    7   5.4   3.0   12.9  55.3     6.9      M    M
 10500   -5.4  22.3   275   14    7   5.8   3.2   12.2  54.0     6.3      M    M
 10250   -5.2  22.6   280   14    7  -3.5  -1.9   11.7  53.1     5.9      M    M
 10000   -5.6  21.9   285   14    7  -5.8  -3.2   10.3  50.6     4.7      M    M
  9750   -5.8  21.6   280   11    6  -4.3  -2.4    9.3  48.8     3.8      M    M
  9500   -6.3  20.7   275    8    4  -3.7  -2.0    8.1  46.5     2.6      M    M
  9250   -6.2  20.8   260    5    3   5.8   3.2    7.4  45.4     2.0      M    M
  9000   -5.6  21.9   220    3    2   7.7   4.2    7.3  45.1     1.8      M    M
  8750   -5.1  22.8   190    4    2   7.2   3.9    7.1  44.7     1.6      M    M
  8500   -4.6  23.7   180    5    3   7.3   4.0    6.9  44.3     1.4      M    M
  8250   -4.0  24.8   170    7    4   7.2   3.9    6.7  44.0     1.2      M    M
  8000   -3.5  25.7   165    9    4   7.7   4.2    6.5  43.7     1.1      M    M
  7750   -2.9  26.8   160   10    5   5.9   3.2    6.3  43.3     0.9      M    M
  7500   -2.7  27.1   160   11    6   1.8   1.0    5.8  42.5     0.4      M    M
  7250   -2.7  27.1   155   12    6   0.4   0.2    5.1  41.2    -0.3    143  0.7
  7000   -2.6  27.3   155   13    7   1.1   0.6    4.4  40.0    -1.0    134  0.7
  6750   -2.6  27.3   155   13    7  -0.1  -0.0    3.7  38.7    -1.7    124  0.6
  6500   -2.5  27.5   155   13    7   3.9   2.1    3.1  37.5    -2.4    115  0.6
  6250   -2.0  28.4   150   14    7   9.1   5.0    2.9  37.2    -2.6     91  0.5
  6000   -1.3  29.7   150   14    7   8.3   4.6    2.8  37.1    -2.6     64  0.3
  5750   -0.7  30.7   150   12    6  10.2   5.6    2.7  36.9    -2.7     38  0.2
  5500   -0.0  32.0   150    8    4   3.6   2.0    2.7  36.8    -2.8     11  0.1
  5250   -0.3  31.5   150    5    3  -8.1  -4.5    1.7  35.0    -3.8     11  0.1
  5000   -1.0  30.2   155    2    1  -7.9  -4.4    0.3  32.5    -5.2     24  0.1

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           12/20/2014 at 0800 MST          |       12/20/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +18.5  LI... +1.8               | K index... +14.5  LI... +3.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.9 -72.2  295  23 12  -0.1  -0.1 | -57.6 -71.7  300  23 12  -0.5  -0.3
 45000 -58.1 -72.6  295  30 16  -0.1  -0.1 | -58.4 -73.1  310  35 18  -0.5  -0.3
 40000 -57.7 -71.9  310  40 21   0.3   0.2 | -57.4 -71.3  320  47 24   0.8   0.4
 38000 -57.4 -71.3  315  43 22   0.7   0.4 | -57.2 -71.0  320  49 25  -0.5  -0.3
 36000 -57.0 -70.6  315  39 20   0.7   0.4 | -57.5 -71.5  325  48 25  -0.5  -0.3
 34000 -56.6 -69.9  320  35 18   3.5   1.9 | -57.8 -72.0  330  47 24   3.0   1.6
 32000 -53.2 -63.8  330  36 19   5.6   3.1 | -53.7 -64.7  335  50 26   7.0   3.8
 30000 -49.7 -57.5  340  38 20   7.8   4.3 | -49.5 -57.1  335  52 27   8.2   4.5
 29000 -47.3 -53.1  335  36 18   8.0   4.4 | -46.9 -52.4  335  48 25   8.7   4.7
 28000 -44.8 -48.6  330  34 17   8.1   4.4 | -44.3 -47.7  330  44 22   8.7   4.7
 27000 -42.4 -44.3  320  32 16   8.1   4.5 | -41.0 -41.8  330  39 20   8.7   4.8
 26000 -40.1 -40.2  320  31 16   7.4   4.1 | -38.4 -37.1  330  37 19   8.8   4.8
 25000 -37.9 -36.2  315  29 15   7.4   4.1 | -35.8 -32.4  330  36 18   8.8   4.8
 24000 -35.7 -32.3  310  28 14   7.3   4.0 | -33.2 -27.8  335  34 18   8.8   4.8
 23000 -33.3 -27.9  305  27 14   8.6   4.7 | -30.6 -23.1  330  33 17   8.6   4.7
 22000 -30.7 -23.3  305  27 14   8.6   4.7 | -28.0 -18.4  325  31 16   8.6   4.7
 21000 -28.1 -18.6  300  27 14   8.3   4.6 | -25.4 -13.7  325  29 15   7.8   4.3
 20000 -25.8 -14.4  295  26 14   7.7   4.2 | -23.3  -9.9  320  27 14   7.1   3.9
 19500 -24.7 -12.5  295  26 13   7.7   4.3 | -22.2  -8.0  315  25 13   7.1   3.9
 19000 -23.5 -10.3  290  26 13   7.8   4.3 | -21.2  -6.2  315  24 12   7.1   3.9
 18500 -22.4  -8.3  285  25 13   7.6   4.2 | -20.1  -4.2  310  23 12   6.7   3.7
 18000 -21.3  -6.3  285  25 13   6.8   3.7 | -19.2  -2.6  310  22 12   5.9   3.2
 17500 -20.3  -4.5  280  24 12   6.9   3.8 | -18.3  -0.9  305  22 11   6.0   3.3
 17000 -19.3  -2.7  280  24 12   6.7   3.7 | -17.5   0.5  300  21 11   4.8   2.6
 16500 -18.3  -0.9  280  24 12   6.7   3.7 | -16.8   1.8  295  21 11   4.9   2.7
 16000 -17.3   0.9  275  24 13   6.8   3.7 | -16.1   3.0  290  21 11   5.0   2.8
 15500 -15.8   3.6  275  25 13   6.9   3.8 | -15.4   4.3  285  20 10   5.2   2.8
 15000 -14.7   5.5  275  25 13   7.8   4.3 | -14.7   5.5  280  20 10   5.6   3.1
 14500 -13.5   7.7  275  24 12   7.9   4.3 | -13.8   7.2  275  20 10   6.6   3.6
 14000 -12.4   9.7  275  23 12   7.8   4.3 | -12.8   9.0  270  20 10   6.6   3.6
 13500 -11.2  11.8  275  22 11   7.7   4.2 | -11.8  10.8  270  19 10   6.9   3.8
 13000 -10.1  13.8  280  21 11   7.6   4.2 | -10.4  13.3  265  19 10   6.6   3.6
 12500  -9.0  15.8  280  20 10   7.5   4.1 |  -9.4  15.1  265  18  9   6.5   3.6
 12000  -7.9  17.8  285  19 10   6.5   3.5 |  -8.5  16.7  265  17  9   6.0   3.3
 11500  -7.1  19.2  285  18  9   5.8   3.2 |  -7.7  18.1  260  16  8   5.7   3.1
 11000  -6.3  20.7  280  17  9   4.0   2.2 |  -6.9  19.6  260  15  7   4.5   2.5
 10500  -5.8  21.6  275  15  8   3.3   1.8 |  -6.3  20.7  255  13  7   4.4   2.4
 10250  -5.6  21.9  275  14  7   1.8   1.0 |  -6.0  21.2  255  12  6   2.1   1.1
 10000  -5.5  22.1  270  14  7   1.8   1.0 |  -5.9  21.4  255  12  6   2.3   1.3
  9750  -5.3  22.5  270  13  6   3.6   2.0 |  -5.6  21.9  250  11  6   4.8   2.7
  9500  -5.0  23.0  270  11  6   3.8   2.1 |  -5.3  22.5  250  10  5   4.5   2.5
  9250  -4.8  23.4  265  10  5   3.1   1.7 |  -4.9  23.2  245  10  5   3.8   2.1
  9000  -4.6  23.7  265   9  5   2.6   1.4 |  -4.7  23.5  240   9  5   3.0   1.6
  8750  -4.3  24.3  260   8  4   3.5   1.9 |  -4.4  24.1  240   8  4   3.5   1.9
  8500  -4.1  24.6  255   7  4   3.9   2.1 |  -4.2  24.4  235   7  4   3.7   2.0
  8250  -3.7  25.3  250   6  3   4.4   2.4 |  -3.9  25.0  230   7  3   4.3   2.4
  8000  -3.4  25.9  240   6  3   4.9   2.7 |  -3.5  25.7  225   6  3   4.9   2.7
  7750  -3.0  26.6  230   5  3   5.5   3.0 |  -3.1  26.4  220   6  3   4.9   2.7
  7500  -2.6  27.3  220   5  3   5.7   3.1 |  -2.7  27.1  215   5  3   5.2   2.9
  7250  -2.1  28.2  210   6  3   5.1   2.8 |  -2.3  27.9  210   5  3   5.4   3.0
  7000  -1.8  28.8  205   6  3   5.2   2.8 |  -1.9  28.6  205   5  2   5.4   3.0
  6750  -1.4  29.5  200   6  3   4.1   2.2 |  -1.5  29.3  195   5  2   6.0   3.3
  6500  -1.2  29.8  195   6  3   2.0   1.1 |  -1.0  30.2  195   4  2   7.3   4.0
  6250  -1.1  30.0  185   5  2   0.7   0.4 |  -0.4  31.3  190   4  2   8.0   4.4
  6000  -1.0  30.2  175   4  2   3.2   1.8 |   0.1  32.2  190   3  2   7.4   4.1
  5750  -0.8  30.6  140   3  1  -1.0  -0.6 |   0.6  33.1  185   2  1   8.1   4.5
  5500  -1.3  29.7  125   2  1  -7.8  -4.3 |   1.3  34.3  185   2  1   9.4   5.1
  5250  -1.7  28.9  105   2  1  -2.4  -1.3 |   1.9  35.4  185   2  1   8.4   4.6
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           12/20/2014 at 1400 MST          |       12/20/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +8.8  LI... +4.8                | K index... +17.2  LI... +4.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.8 -72.0  310  27 14   0.1   0.0 | -58.4 -73.1  320  34 18   0.0   0.0
 45000 -57.7 -71.9  315  38 20   0.1   0.0 | -58.4 -73.1  320  43 22  -0.0  -0.0
 40000 -58.3 -72.9  325  51 26  -0.4  -0.2 | -59.1 -74.4  325  56 29  -0.5  -0.3
 38000 -58.1 -72.6  325  57 29   1.5   0.8 | -58.7 -73.7  325  65 34   2.7   1.5
 36000 -57.2 -71.0  325  64 33   1.5   0.8 | -57.1 -70.8  330  83 43   2.7   1.5
 34000 -56.3 -69.3  325  72 37   3.7   2.0 | -55.4 -67.7  330 100 51   6.0   3.3
 32000 -52.8 -63.0  315  61 31   5.9   3.3 | -50.7 -59.3  330  91 47   7.8   4.3
 30000 -49.1 -56.4  305  51 26   8.6   4.7 | -46.0 -50.8  330  82 42   7.7   4.2
 29000 -46.3 -51.3  305  48 25   9.4   5.1 | -43.7 -46.7  325  74 38   7.5   4.1
 28000 -42.8 -45.0  300  45 23   9.4   5.1 | -40.9 -41.6  320  65 33   7.5   4.1
 27000 -40.0 -40.0  300  42 22   9.0   4.9 | -38.7 -37.7  315  58 30   7.4   4.0
 26000 -37.7 -35.9  300  38 20   7.7   4.2 | -36.6 -33.9  310  54 28   6.8   3.7
 25000 -35.4 -31.7  295  34 18   7.7   4.2 | -34.6 -30.3  305  51 26   6.8   3.7
 24000 -33.1 -27.6  290  31 16   7.7   4.2 | -32.6 -26.7  305  48 24   6.7   3.6
 23000 -30.4 -22.7  290  31 16   9.2   5.0 | -30.1 -22.2  300  46 23   8.9   4.9
 22000 -27.6 -17.7  290  31 16   9.2   5.0 | -27.5 -17.5  295  44 23   8.9   4.9
 21000 -24.9 -12.8  285  31 16   8.4   4.6 | -24.8 -12.6  295  43 22   7.7   4.2
 20000 -22.6  -8.7  285  29 15   7.5   4.1 | -23.1  -9.6  290  40 21   5.7   3.1
 19500 -21.5  -6.7  285  28 15   7.5   4.1 | -22.3  -8.1  290  39 20   5.7   3.1
 19000 -20.4  -4.7  285  27 14   7.5   4.1 | -21.4  -6.5  285  38 19   5.7   3.1
 18500 -19.2  -2.6  280  26 14   7.0   3.9 | -20.6  -5.1  285  37 19   5.8   3.2
 18000 -18.3  -0.9  280  26 13   5.6   3.1 | -19.7  -3.5  285  36 18   6.4   3.5
 17500 -17.5   0.5  280  25 13   5.6   3.1 | -18.8  -1.8  280  35 18   6.4   3.5
 17000 -16.7   1.9  275  24 12   5.6   3.1 | -17.8  -0.0  280  34 17   6.2   3.4
 16500 -15.8   3.6  275  24 12   5.5   3.0 | -16.9   1.6  280  33 17   6.2   3.4
 16000 -15.0   5.0  275  24 12   4.6   2.5 | -16.0   3.2  280  32 17   5.8   3.2
 15500 -14.5   5.9  275  23 12   4.0   2.2 | -15.2   4.6  280  31 16   5.3   2.9
 15000 -13.9   7.0  275  23 12   4.3   2.3 | -14.4   6.1  280  30 15   5.3   2.9
 14500 -13.2   8.2  270  23 12   5.2   2.9 | -13.6   7.5  280  29 15   5.6   3.1
 14000 -12.5   9.5  270  22 11   5.3   2.9 | -12.8   9.0  280  27 14   5.6   3.1
 13500 -11.3  11.7  265  22 11   5.7   3.1 | -11.6  11.1  280  25 13   5.3   2.9
 13000 -10.5  13.1  265  21 11   6.0   3.3 | -10.8  12.6  280  24 12   5.2   2.9
 12500  -9.6  14.7  265  21 11   6.1   3.4 | -10.1  13.8  275  22 11   5.2   2.8
 12000  -8.7  16.3  265  20 10   6.1   3.3 |  -9.3  15.3  275  21 11   5.7   3.1
 11500  -7.8  18.0  260  19 10   6.0   3.3 |  -8.4  16.9  270  20 10   6.2   3.4
 11000  -7.0  19.4  260  18  9   5.2   2.9 |  -7.5  18.5  270  19 10   5.9   3.2
 10500  -6.3  20.7  255  16  8   5.2   2.8 |  -6.7  19.9  265  17  9   6.1   3.3
 10250  -6.0  21.2  255  15  8   2.6   1.4 |  -6.3  20.7  265  17  9   3.7   2.0
 10000  -5.8  21.6  250  15  8   3.3   1.8 |  -6.1  21.0  260  16  8   3.9   2.2
  9750  -5.4  22.3  250  14  7   6.3   3.4 |  -5.7  21.7  260  16  8   6.4   3.5
  9500  -5.0  23.0  250  13  7   5.8   3.2 |  -5.3  22.5  255  15  8   5.9   3.2
  9250  -4.6  23.7  245  12  6   4.8   2.6 |  -4.8  23.4  255  14  7   5.6   3.1
  9000  -4.3  24.3  245  12  6   3.4   1.9 |  -4.5  23.9  250  13  7   5.1   2.8
  8750  -4.0  24.8  240  11  6   4.1   2.2 |  -4.1  24.6  250  12  6   5.3   2.9
  8500  -3.7  25.3  240  10  5   4.5   2.5 |  -3.7  25.3  250  11  6   5.8   3.2
  8250  -3.4  25.9  235   9  5   3.7   2.0 |  -3.3  26.1  245  10  5   4.2   2.3
  8000  -3.1  26.4  235   7  4   3.2   1.8 |  -3.1  26.4  240   8  4   2.9   1.6
  7750  -2.9  26.8  230   6  3   3.2   1.7 |  -2.8  27.0  240   7  4   3.8   2.1
  7500  -2.6  27.3  220   4  2   4.7   2.6 |  -2.5  27.5  235   5  3   4.2   2.3
  7250  -2.1  28.2  215   3  2   7.5   4.1 |  -2.2  28.0  230   4  2   4.6   2.5
  7000  -1.6  29.1  215   3  1   8.1   4.5 |  -1.8  28.8  230   4  2   4.8   2.6
  6750  -1.0  30.2  220   2  1   7.9   4.3 |  -1.5  29.3  225   3  1   4.9   2.7
  6500  -0.3  31.5  225   2  1   9.5   5.2 |  -1.0  30.2  235   2  1   7.6   4.2
  6250   0.4  32.7  225   2  1  10.6   5.8 |  -0.3  31.5  250   2  1   9.4   5.1
  6000   1.2  34.2  225   2  1  10.2   5.6 |   0.3  32.5  270   2  1   9.2   5.1
  5750   1.9  35.4  230   1  1   9.0   5.0 |   1.0  33.8  300   2  1   6.3   3.4
  5500   2.5  36.5  235   1  1   8.2   4.5 |   1.2  34.2  310   2  1   2.8   1.5
  5250   3.1  37.6  235   2  1   8.8   4.8 |   1.5  34.7  310   2  1   4.9   2.7
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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