Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
284
UXUS97 KGJT 181351
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0651 MST Wednesday, January 18, 2017

This forecast is for Wednesday, January 18, 2017:

If the trigger temperature of 44.9 F/7.2 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 7292 ft MSL (2453 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 43.0 F/6.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast opaque high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5779 ft MSL (940 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 01/19..... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:30:08 / 17:18:22 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 48 min 13 sec (588 min 13 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:24:38 MST... 30.56 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 01/18/2017 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 4839 ft MSL (0 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 6106 ft MSL (1267 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 10141 ft MSL (5302 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 9502 ft MSL (4663 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +13.2
K index......................... -10.0

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -58.9 -74.0   320   12    6  -1.0  -0.6  103.7 218.7    55.5      M    M
 45000  -56.7 -70.1   350   27   14   7.3   4.0   82.7 180.8    46.6      M    M
 40000  -57.0 -70.6   030   42   22  -0.5  -0.3   59.0 138.1    34.4      M    M
 38000  -57.8 -72.0   035   42   22   1.7   0.9   47.7 117.9    27.9      M    M
 36000  -56.1 -69.0   045   55   28  -3.4  -1.9   41.6 107.0    24.5      M    M
 34000  -54.7 -66.5   050   51   26   7.5   4.1   35.2  95.4    20.6      M    M
 32000  -49.2 -56.6   045   49   25   8.9   4.9   34.7  94.4    20.8      M    M
 30000  -43.6 -46.5   040   47   24   9.2   5.1   34.3  93.8    21.1      M    M
 29000  -40.9 -41.6   040   48   25   8.3   4.6   34.0  93.2    21.1      M    M
 28000  -38.4 -37.1   040   49   25   8.2   4.5   33.3  92.0    20.8      M    M
 27000  -36.0 -32.8   040   49   25   8.2   4.5   32.8  91.0    20.7      M    M
 26000  -33.6 -28.5   040   50   26   6.7   3.7   32.1  89.8    20.4      M    M
 25000  -31.4 -24.5   040   51   26   9.4   5.2   31.2  88.2    19.9      M    M
 24000  -28.9 -20.0   045   49   25   7.6   4.2   30.7  87.3    19.7      M    M
 23000  -26.5 -15.7   045   46   24   8.1   4.5   30.0  86.1    19.4      M    M
 22000  -24.2 -11.6   045   42   22   7.0   3.8   29.3  84.8    19.0      M    M
 21000  -21.5  -6.7   040   39   20   9.6   5.3   29.1  84.3    19.0      M    M
 20000  -18.4  -1.1   040   34   18   6.9   3.8   28.4  83.0    18.7      M    M
 19500  -17.4   0.7   040   31   16   6.5   3.6   27.8  82.1    18.4      M    M
 19000  -16.4   2.5   040   29   15   6.3   3.4   27.2  81.0    18.0      M    M
 18500  -15.6   3.9   040   26   13   5.7   3.1   26.5  79.8    17.5      M    M
 18000  -14.7   5.5   040   23   12   5.7   3.1   25.8  78.5    17.0      M    M
 17500  -13.9   7.0   040   20   10   5.7   3.1   25.1  77.2    16.4      M    M
 17000  -13.1   8.4   040   17    9   3.9   2.1   24.4  75.9    15.9      M    M
 16500  -12.7   9.1   035   14    7   2.8   1.5   23.2  73.8    14.9      M    M
 16000  -11.8  10.8   035   12    6   8.4   4.6   22.5  72.6    14.4      M    M
 15500  -10.6  12.9   040   10    5   8.0   4.4   22.2  72.0    14.2      M    M
 15000   -9.3  15.3   045    9    5   8.1   4.4   21.9  71.5    14.1      M    M
 14500   -8.1  17.4   040   10    5   8.4   4.6   21.7  71.0    13.9      M    M
 14000   -7.0  19.4   040   10    5   6.9   3.8   21.3  70.4    13.7      M    M
 13500   -5.9  21.4   030    9    5   7.0   3.8   20.9  69.5    13.3      M    M
 13000   -4.9  23.2   020    8    4   6.6   3.6   20.4  68.8    13.0      M    M
 12500   -4.3  24.3   005    8    4   1.7   0.9   19.4  67.0    12.2      M    M
 12000   -3.9  25.0   355    8    4   2.6   1.4   18.2  64.7    11.2      M    M
 11500   -3.9  25.0   350    5    3  -4.1  -2.3   16.6  61.9     9.8      M    M
 11000   -4.8  23.4   340    3    1 -37.2 -20.4   14.1  57.3     7.4      M    M
 10500   -8.9  16.0   250    1    1  12.7   7.0    8.5  47.3     1.8      M    M
 10250   -8.4  16.9   210    2    1   6.5   3.6    8.4  47.1     1.7      M    M
 10000   -7.8  18.0   200    3    2   8.3   4.6    8.2  46.8     1.5      M    M
  9750   -7.2  19.0   200    3    2   8.3   4.5    8.1  46.6     1.4      M    M
  9500   -6.6  20.1   205    3    2   8.3   4.5    8.0  46.4     1.3      M    M
  9250   -5.9  21.4   205    3    2   8.3   4.5    7.9  46.2     1.2      M    M
  9000   -5.3  22.5   205    3    2   8.3   4.5    7.8  46.0     1.1      M    M
  8750   -4.7  23.5   215    3    2   8.3   4.5    7.7  45.8     1.0      M    M
  8500   -4.1  24.6   220    3    2   8.3   4.5    7.5  45.6     0.9      M    M
  8250   -3.5  25.7   230    4    2   8.3   4.6    7.4  45.4     0.8      M    M
  8000   -2.9  26.8   235    4    2   8.2   4.5    7.3  45.2     0.7      M    M
  7750   -2.2  28.0   225    3    2   8.8   4.8    7.2  45.0     0.5      M    M
  7500   -1.6  29.1   200    2    1   6.6   3.6    7.1  44.7     0.4      M    M
  7250   -1.3  29.7   165    2    1   3.6   2.0    6.7  44.0     0.0      M    M
  7000   -1.0  30.2   135    3    1   3.6   2.0    6.2  43.2    -0.4     97  0.5
  6750   -0.8  30.6   125    3    1   3.6   2.0    5.7  42.3    -0.9     82  0.4
  6500   -0.5  31.1   110    2    1   3.5   1.9    5.2  41.4    -1.4     66  0.3
  6250   -0.2  31.6   090    2    1   3.6   2.0    4.8  40.6    -1.9     51  0.3
  6000    0.0  32.0   070    2    1   3.3   1.8    4.3  39.8    -2.3     36  0.2
  5750    0.2  32.4   060    2    1   1.5   0.8    3.8  38.8    -2.9     23  0.1
  5500    0.3  32.5   045    1    1   0.6   0.3    3.1  37.5    -3.6     14  0.1
  5250    0.3  32.5   020    1    0   1.0   0.5    2.4  36.3    -4.2      4  0.0
  5000    0.4  32.7   345    1    0  -0.8  -0.5    1.7  35.1    -4.9      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           01/18/2017 at 0800 MST          |       01/18/2017 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -4.6  LI... +8.8                | K index... -4.8  LI... +9.8
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.3 -74.7  335  14  7   1.7   1.0 | -59.0 -74.2  330  13  7   1.4   0.8
 45000 -56.7 -70.1  360  23 12  -0.0  -0.0 | -56.9 -70.4  010  24 12   0.1   0.0
 40000 -58.3 -72.9  030  43 22  -1.1  -0.6 | -58.9 -74.0  025  41 21  -1.4  -0.8
 38000 -57.6 -71.7  035  49 25   3.4   1.9 | -57.7 -71.9  025  45 23   4.4   2.4
 36000 -55.6 -68.1  035  52 27   3.4   1.9 | -55.1 -67.2  030  48 25   4.4   2.4
 34000 -53.1 -63.6  040  53 28   8.5   4.6 | -52.0 -61.6  030  50 26   7.8   4.3
 32000 -47.7 -53.9  040  51 26   8.0   4.4 | -47.3 -53.1  030  48 25   7.9   4.3
 30000 -42.8 -45.0  040  49 25   8.2   4.5 | -42.5 -44.5  030  46 24   7.9   4.3
 29000 -40.4 -40.7  040  49 25   8.2   4.5 | -40.2 -40.4  035  46 24   7.9   4.4
 28000 -37.9 -36.2  040  49 25   8.2   4.5 | -37.8 -36.0  035  45 23   8.0   4.4
 27000 -35.5 -31.9  040  49 25   7.9   4.4 | -35.4 -31.7  035  45 23   7.8   4.3
 26000 -33.1 -27.6  040  47 24   7.8   4.3 | -32.6 -26.7  035  42 22   7.5   4.1
 25000 -30.8 -23.4  045  45 23   7.8   4.3 | -30.4 -22.7  035  40 21   7.5   4.1
 24000 -28.4 -19.1  045  43 22   7.9   4.3 | -28.1 -18.6  040  38 20   7.9   4.4
 23000 -26.0 -14.8  050  40 21   8.1   4.4 | -25.7 -14.3  040  36 18   8.2   4.5
 22000 -23.6 -10.5  050  37 19   8.1   4.4 | -23.2  -9.8  040  34 17   8.2   4.5
 21000 -21.2  -6.2  050  34 18   7.5   4.1 | -20.9  -5.6  040  31 16   7.3   4.0
 20000 -19.1  -2.4  050  30 16   7.2   4.0 | -18.7  -1.7  035  28 14   7.3   4.0
 19500 -18.0  -0.4  045  28 14   7.2   4.0 | -17.6   0.3  035  26 13   7.3   4.0
 19000 -16.9   1.6  045  26 13   7.2   4.0 | -16.5   2.3  030  25 13   7.3   4.0
 18500 -15.8   3.6  040  24 12   7.1   3.9 | -15.4   4.3  030  23 12   7.3   4.0
 18000 -14.8   5.4  040  23 12   6.9   3.8 | -14.4   6.1  025  23 12   7.2   4.0
 17500 -13.8   7.2  035  21 11   7.0   3.8 | -13.3   8.1  025  22 11   7.2   4.0
 17000 -12.8   9.0  030  20 10   5.4   2.9 | -12.3   9.9  020  21 11   6.6   3.6
 16500 -12.0  10.4  025  19 10   5.5   3.0 | -11.3  11.7  020  21 11   6.7   3.7
 16000 -11.2  11.8  020  19 10   5.7   3.1 | -10.3  13.5  015  21 11   5.9   3.2
 15500  -9.9  14.2  015  17  9   5.6   3.1 |  -9.5  14.9  015  20 10   5.9   3.2
 15000  -8.9  16.0  010  17  9   7.9   4.4 |  -8.6  16.5  010  20 10   6.6   3.6
 14500  -7.7  18.1  005  16  8   8.0   4.4 |  -7.5  18.5  010  19 10   7.4   4.0
 14000  -6.5  20.3  360  15  8   6.7   3.7 |  -6.4  20.5  005  19 10   7.2   3.9
 13500  -5.6  21.9  360  15  8   6.2   3.4 |  -5.4  22.3  360  18  9   6.3   3.5
 13000  -4.7  23.5  355  14  7   4.1   2.2 |  -4.1  24.6  355  16  8   1.9   1.0
 12500  -4.3  24.3  350  13  7   2.3   1.2 |  -4.1  24.6  345  14  7   0.0   0.0
 12000  -4.0  24.8  345  12  6  -1.0  -0.6 |  -4.2  24.4  335  13  7  -2.4  -1.3
 11500  -4.8  23.4  345   9  4  -4.2  -2.3 |  -4.8  23.4  315  10  5  -3.6  -2.0
 11000  -5.5  22.1  335   5  3  -1.1  -0.6 |  -5.3  22.5  290   8  4   0.5   0.3
 10500  -5.2  22.6  300   4  2   2.0   1.1 |  -4.9  23.2  280   8  4   3.0   1.6
 10250  -5.1  22.8  275   4  2   1.1   0.6 |  -4.7  23.5  270   8  4   2.0   1.1
 10000  -5.0  23.0  260   4  2   2.6   1.4 |  -4.6  23.7  265   8  4   1.7   0.9
  9750  -4.7  23.5  260   5  2   5.6   3.1 |  -4.5  23.9  265   9  4   2.7   1.5
  9500  -4.3  24.3  260   5  3   6.1   3.3 |  -4.3  24.3  260   9  5   3.0   1.7
  9250  -3.9  25.0  260   6  3   4.1   2.3 |  -4.2  24.4  260   9  5   1.6   0.9
  9000  -3.8  25.2  260   6  3  -0.1  -0.1 |  -4.2  24.4  255   9  4  -1.9  -1.0
  8750  -3.9  25.0  255   6  3  -0.6  -0.3 |  -4.4  24.1  250   8  4  -3.5  -1.9
  8500  -3.9  25.0  250   6  3  -0.4  -0.2 |  -4.7  23.5  240   7  3  -4.5  -2.5
  8250  -4.0  24.8  240   6  3   1.3   0.7 |  -4.9  23.2  230   6  3   1.9   1.0
  8000  -3.8  25.2  230   5  3   3.2   1.8 |  -4.5  23.9  225   5  2   7.2   3.9
  7750  -3.5  25.7  220   4  2   2.8   1.5 |  -4.1  24.6  215   3  2   5.8   3.2
  7500  -3.3  26.1  210   3  2   2.9   1.6 |  -3.6  25.5  205   2  1   5.8   3.2
  7250  -3.1  26.4  200   3  2   2.5   1.4 |  -3.2  26.2  195   2  1   5.1   2.8
  7000  -2.9  26.8  195   3  2   2.4   1.3 |  -2.8  27.0  185   2  1   5.1   2.8
  6750  -2.7  27.1  190   4  2   2.0   1.1 |  -2.5  27.5  175   2  1   5.4   3.0
  6500  -2.6  27.3  180   4  2   2.3   1.3 |  -2.0  28.4  170   2  1   5.4   3.0
  6250  -2.4  27.7  175   3  2   2.2   1.2 |  -1.7  28.9  165   2  1   5.9   3.2
  6000  -2.2  28.0  160   3  1   4.3   2.3 |  -1.3  29.7  155   2  1   3.8   2.1
  5750  -1.9  28.6  130   2  1   1.0   0.6 |  -1.0  30.2  140   1  1   4.8   2.7
  5500  -2.1  28.2  120   2  1  -5.2  -2.8 |  -0.5  31.1  145   1  1   8.3   4.6
  5250  -2.4  27.7  115   2  1  -1.3  -0.7 |  -0.0  32.0  145   1  1   5.6   3.0
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           01/18/2017 at 1400 MST          |       01/18/2017 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -8.6  LI... +11.0               | K index... -8.4  LI... +10.8
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.6                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.9 -74.0  335  17  9   1.8   1.0 | -59.5 -75.1  340  21 11   1.3   0.7
 45000 -56.2 -69.2  355  28 14   0.5   0.3 | -57.5 -71.5  360  31 16   0.6   0.3
 40000 -57.5 -71.5  005  37 19  -0.8  -0.5 | -57.7 -71.9  350  42 22  -0.1  -0.1
 38000 -56.5 -69.7  010  39 20   3.4   1.9 | -56.5 -69.7  350  42 22   3.5   1.9
 36000 -54.4 -65.9  015  41 21   3.4   1.9 | -54.4 -65.9  355  40 20   3.5   1.9
 34000 -51.8 -61.2  020  42 22   7.6   4.1 | -51.8 -61.2  360  38 19   7.9   4.3
 32000 -47.3 -53.1  025  41 21   7.5   4.1 | -47.1 -52.8  360  37 19   7.8   4.3
 30000 -42.8 -45.0  025  39 20   7.7   4.2 | -42.4 -44.3  005  35 18   8.1   4.5
 29000 -40.5 -40.9  030  38 20   7.7   4.2 | -39.9 -39.8  005  33 17   8.2   4.5
 28000 -38.2 -36.8  030  37 19   7.8   4.3 | -37.5 -35.5  010  31 16   8.2   4.5
 27000 -35.3 -31.5  035  36 19   7.7   4.2 | -35.0 -31.0  015  30 15   8.0   4.4
 26000 -33.0 -27.4  030  34 18   7.7   4.2 | -32.2 -26.0  015  28 14   7.6   4.2
 25000 -30.7 -23.3  030  32 17   7.7   4.2 | -29.9 -21.8  015  26 14   7.6   4.2
 24000 -28.4 -19.1  030  31 16   8.1   4.5 | -27.6 -17.7  010  25 13   7.9   4.3
 23000 -25.8 -14.4  025  29 15   8.5   4.7 | -25.2 -13.4  010  25 13   8.2   4.5
 22000 -23.3  -9.9  025  28 15   8.5   4.7 | -22.7  -8.9  010  24 12   8.2   4.5
 21000 -20.8  -5.4  025  27 14   8.3   4.5 | -20.3  -4.5  005  23 12   8.3   4.5
 20000 -18.3  -0.9  020  26 13   8.2   4.5 | -17.8  -0.0  010  22 12   8.3   4.5
 19500 -17.1   1.2  020  25 13   8.2   4.5 | -16.6   2.1  010  22 11   8.3   4.5
 19000 -15.8   3.6  020  25 13   8.2   4.5 | -15.3   4.5  010  21 11   8.3   4.5
 18500 -14.6   5.7  020  24 12   7.8   4.3 | -14.1   6.6  010  21 11   8.1   4.4
 18000 -13.5   7.7  015  23 12   7.5   4.1 | -12.9   8.8  015  20 10   7.8   4.3
 17500 -12.4   9.7  015  23 12   7.5   4.1 | -11.8  10.8  015  19 10   8.0   4.4
 17000 -11.3  11.7  015  22 12   7.2   3.9 | -10.7  12.7  015  18  9   6.2   3.4
 16500 -10.2  13.6  015  22 11   7.2   4.0 |  -9.8  14.4  015  17  9   6.4   3.5
 16000  -9.2  15.4  010  21 11   6.5   3.5 |  -8.8  16.2  015  17  8   5.4   3.0
 15500  -8.2  17.2  010  21 11   6.2   3.4 |  -8.1  17.4  015  15  8   4.9   2.7
 15000  -7.3  18.9  010  20 10   5.9   3.2 |  -7.4  18.7  020  14  7   4.8   2.6
 14500  -6.5  20.3  010  19 10   5.2   2.8 |  -6.7  19.9  020  13  7   4.4   2.4
 14000  -5.8  21.6  010  19 10   5.2   2.9 |  -6.1  21.0  020  11  6   4.5   2.5
 13500  -5.0  23.0  010  17  9   5.2   2.9 |  -5.4  22.3  015  10  5   4.9   2.7
 13000  -3.9  25.0  005  14  7   2.8   1.5 |  -4.3  24.3  360   7  4   4.1   2.2
 12500  -3.8  25.2  355  12  6   0.6   0.3 |  -3.9  25.0  340   6  3   2.8   1.5
 12000  -3.7  25.3  340  10  5  -1.7  -0.9 |  -3.5  25.7  315   6  3   1.5   0.8
 11500  -4.3  24.3  320   8  4  -4.5  -2.4 |  -3.6  25.5  290   6  3  -1.5  -0.8
 11000  -5.1  22.8  290   7  4  -1.6  -0.9 |  -3.8  25.2  270   7  4  -0.7  -0.4
 10500  -4.8  23.4  280   8  4   2.2   1.2 |  -3.7  25.3  260   8  4   0.9   0.5
 10250  -4.7  23.5  270   9  4   1.6   0.9 |  -3.7  25.3  255   8  4   0.9   0.5
 10000  -4.6  23.7  265   9  5   1.5   0.8 |  -3.6  25.5  255   8  4   1.7   0.9
  9750  -4.5  23.9  265   9  5   2.3   1.3 |  -3.5  25.7  250   8  4   2.2   1.2
  9500  -4.4  24.1  260  10  5   2.2   1.2 |  -3.4  25.9  250   9  4   2.1   1.1
  9250  -4.2  24.4  255  10  5   2.3   1.3 |  -3.2  26.2  245   9  4   2.1   1.1
  9000  -4.1  24.6  255  10  5   2.0   1.1 |  -3.1  26.4  245   9  5   1.7   0.9
  8750  -4.0  24.8  250   9  5   1.7   0.9 |  -3.1  26.4  235   8  4   1.8   1.0
  8500  -3.9  25.0  245   8  4   1.2   0.7 |  -2.9  26.8  230   8  4   2.1   1.2
  8250  -3.8  25.2  240   8  4   3.0   1.7 |  -2.8  27.0  225   8  4   2.3   1.2
  8000  -3.5  25.7  240   7  3   5.0   2.7 |  -2.7  27.1  220   7  4   2.7   1.5
  7750  -3.2  26.2  235   6  3   3.8   2.1 |  -2.5  27.5  215   6  3   2.8   1.5
  7500  -2.9  26.8  235   5  2   3.6   2.0 |  -2.3  27.9  210   5  3   2.8   1.5
  7250  -2.6  27.3  230   4  2   4.6   2.5 |  -2.1  28.2  205   4  2   2.2   1.2
  7000  -2.2  28.0  230   3  2   5.2   2.8 |  -2.0  28.4  200   4  2   1.7   1.0
  6750  -1.9  28.6  235   2  1   5.6   3.1 |  -2.0  28.4  195   4  2  -3.0  -1.7
  6500  -1.4  29.5  245   2  1   7.1   3.9 |  -2.3  27.9  185   4  2   0.0   0.0
  6250  -0.9  30.4  260   2  1   8.0   4.4 |  -1.9  28.6  185   3  2   8.1   4.5
  6000  -0.3  31.5  270   2  1   8.0   4.4 |  -1.3  29.7  190   2  1   8.5   4.6
  5750   0.2  32.4  280   2  1   8.1   4.4 |  -0.7  30.7  195   1  1   7.6   4.2
  5500   0.8  33.4  280   2  1   7.8   4.3 |  -0.2  31.6  210   1  1   5.5   3.0
  5250   1.3  34.3  280   2  1   7.7   4.2 |   0.1  32.2  215   1  0   4.5   2.4
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.