Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 191233
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0633 MDT Friday, September 19, 2014

This forecast is for Friday, September 19, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 82.7 F/28.2 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 734 ft/min (3.7 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 13227 ft MSL (8375 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 86.0 F/30.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1315 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7223 ft MSL (2371 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 09/20..... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:59:06 / 19:17:28 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 18 min 22 sec (738 min 22 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:07:48 MDT... 52.18 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 09/19/2014 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 15273 ft MSL (10421 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16287 ft MSL (11435 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15799 ft MSL (10947 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +1.7
K index......................... +21.3

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -69.5 -93.1   255   55   28   2.8   1.5   78.4 173.0    28.0      M    M
 45000  -60.3 -76.5   250   63   32   5.4   2.9   69.1 156.3    24.3      M    M
 40000  -50.7 -59.3   255   51   26   6.5   3.5   60.3 140.5    20.2      M    M
 38000  -47.1 -52.8   255   37   19   4.7   2.6   56.9 134.4    18.4      M    M
 36000  -44.2 -47.6   250   24   12   4.0   2.2   52.6 126.7    15.9      M    M
 34000  -41.3 -42.3   240   26   14   2.8   1.5   48.5 119.3    13.3      M    M
 32000  -37.6 -35.7   255   23   12   9.9   5.5   45.6 114.1    11.6      M    M
 30000  -32.1 -25.8   240   21   11   9.4   5.1   45.3 113.5    11.6      M    M
 29000  -29.3 -20.7   240   20   10   9.4   5.1   45.0 113.0    11.5      M    M
 28000  -26.4 -15.5   235   20   10   9.1   5.0   44.9 112.8    11.5      M    M
 27000  -24.1 -11.4   235   19   10   7.7   4.2   44.2 111.6    11.1      M    M
 26000  -21.7  -7.1   240   16    8   7.7   4.2   43.4 110.2    10.7      M    M
 25000  -19.4  -2.9   210   14    7   7.7   4.2   42.7 108.8    10.2      M    M
 24000  -17.1   1.2   200   12    6   7.8   4.3   41.9 107.5     9.7      M    M
 23000  -14.7   5.5   220   11    6   7.8   4.3   41.2 106.2     9.2      M    M
 22000  -12.6   9.3   225    9    5   3.6   2.0   40.2 104.4     8.5      M    M
 21000  -11.5  11.3   240    6    3   7.1   3.9   37.3  99.2     6.1      M    M
 20000   -8.9  16.0   265    5    2   8.5   4.7   36.9  98.4     5.7      M    M
 19500   -7.6  18.3   280    4    2   8.5   4.7   36.7  98.0     5.6      M    M
 19000   -6.4  20.5   270    3    2   8.0   4.4   36.4  97.5     5.4      M    M
 18500   -5.2  22.6   225    7    4   7.6   4.2   36.1  97.0     5.1      M    M
 18000   -4.0  24.8   210   12    6   1.9   1.0   35.8  96.5     4.9      M    M
 17500   -5.1  22.8   205   17    9   0.8   0.4   33.3  91.9     2.4      M    M
 17000   -4.3  24.3   205   21   11   4.8   2.7   32.6  90.6     1.7      M    M
 16500   -3.2  26.2   200   20   11   9.5   5.2   32.2  89.9     1.3      M    M
 16000   -1.9  28.6   200   20   10   9.1   5.0   32.1  89.7     1.2      M    M
 15500   -0.5  31.1   200   19   10   9.1   5.0   31.9  89.4     1.1      M    M
 15000    0.8  33.4   205   18    9   9.1   5.0   31.8  89.2     1.0      M    M
 14500    2.2  36.0   205   18    9   9.1   5.0   31.7  89.0     0.9      M    M
 14000    3.6  38.5   210   17    9   9.4   5.2   31.6  88.9     0.8      M    M
 13500    4.7  40.5   215   15    8   5.6   3.1   31.2  88.2     0.4      M    M
 13000    5.3  41.5   215   13    7   5.7   3.1   30.5  87.0    -0.4    718  3.6
 12500    6.4  43.5   225   12    6   8.6   4.7   30.1  86.2    -0.8    671  3.4
 12000    7.8  46.0   230   10    5   8.8   4.8   29.9  85.9    -0.9    615  3.1
 11500    9.1  48.4   235   10    5   9.2   5.0   29.8  85.6    -1.0    560  2.8
 11000   10.4  50.7   245   10    5   9.2   5.0   29.7  85.5    -1.1    505  2.6
 10500   11.8  53.2   250   10    5   9.3   5.1   29.6  85.3    -1.2    449  2.3
 10250   12.4  54.3   255   10    5   8.5   4.6   29.6  85.3    -1.3    422  2.1
 10000   13.0  55.4   260    9    5   7.7   4.2   29.4  85.0    -1.5    399  2.0
  9750   13.5  56.3   265    9    4   8.7   4.8   29.3  84.8    -1.7    375  1.9
  9500   14.3  57.7   265    8    4   9.3   5.1   29.3  84.7    -1.7    346  1.8
  9250   15.0  59.0   275    8    4   9.1   5.0   29.2  84.6    -1.7    317  1.6
  9000   15.7  60.3   280    7    4   9.2   5.0   29.2  84.5    -1.7    288  1.5
  8750   16.4  61.5   275    7    3   9.2   5.1   29.1  84.4    -1.7    259  1.3
  8500   17.1  62.8   270    6    3   9.0   5.0   29.1  84.4    -1.8    230  1.2
  8250   17.8  64.0   265    6    3   7.7   4.2   29.0  84.2    -1.9    204  1.0
  8000   18.3  64.9   260    6    3   6.9   3.8   28.8  83.8    -2.1    181  0.9
  7750   18.8  65.8   255    4    2   7.0   3.8   28.6  83.4    -2.3    159  0.8
  7500   19.3  66.7   230    2    1   7.5   4.1   28.4  83.1    -2.6    136  0.7
  7250   19.8  67.6   165    2    1   5.4   2.9   28.2  82.7    -2.8    114  0.6
  7000   20.0  68.0   125    3    2   0.8   0.4   27.6  81.7    -3.3    101  0.5
  6750   19.9  67.8   120    4    2  -1.3  -0.7   26.9  80.3    -4.2     96  0.5
  6500   19.9  67.8   120    4    2   4.0   2.2   26.1  79.0    -4.9     89  0.5
  6250   20.4  68.7   125    3    2   7.7   4.2   25.9  78.7    -5.1     66  0.3
  6000   20.9  69.6   125    3    2   8.5   4.6   25.7  78.3    -5.4     43  0.2
  5750   21.4  70.5   125    3    1   1.6   0.9   25.5  78.0    -5.6     19  0.1
  5500   21.1  70.0   125    2    1  -6.7  -3.7   24.5  76.0    -6.7     23  0.1
  5250   20.3  68.5   125    1    1 -16.9  -9.2   23.0  73.4    -8.2     39  0.2
  5000   18.3  64.9   125    1    0 -34.4 -18.9   20.3  68.5   -10.9     91  0.5

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           09/19/2014 at 0900 MDT          |       09/19/2014 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +21.1  LI... +2.0               | K index... +26.3  LI... +1.1
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.6                   | CAPE... +1.3  CIN... -8.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -66.5 -87.7  265  42 22   2.7   1.5 | -66.9 -88.4  260  46 24   3.2   1.8
 45000 -60.9 -77.6  255  64 33   6.7   3.7 | -60.7 -77.3  260  70 36   6.6   3.6
 40000 -50.6 -59.1  260  57 30   5.2   2.9 | -50.6 -59.1  260  64 33   4.9   2.7
 38000 -47.5 -53.5  255  45 23   5.2   2.8 | -47.7 -53.9  260  52 27   4.8   2.7
 36000 -44.4 -47.9  250  33 17   5.1   2.8 | -44.8 -48.6  255  41 21   4.7   2.6
 34000 -40.7 -41.3  245  28 14   6.3   3.5 | -40.7 -41.3  255  36 18   7.2   3.9
 32000 -37.0 -34.6  235  24 12   6.3   3.5 | -36.4 -33.5  250  31 16   7.1   3.9
 30000 -32.2 -26.0  235  21 11   8.5   4.6 | -32.0 -25.6  240  26 14   7.4   4.1
 29000 -29.7 -21.5  240  19 10   8.5   4.7 | -29.8 -21.6  240  24 12   7.4   4.1
 28000 -27.1 -16.8  240  18  9   8.5   4.6 | -27.0 -16.6  235  21 11   8.3   4.6
 27000 -24.0 -11.2  250  16  8   8.3   4.6 | -24.5 -12.1  240  18  9   8.5   4.7
 26000 -21.5  -6.7  255  15  8   8.3   4.6 | -21.9  -7.4  245  15  8   8.5   4.7
 25000 -19.1  -2.4  265  14  7   8.2   4.5 | -19.4  -2.9  260  12  6   8.4   4.6
 24000 -16.8   1.8  270  13  7   7.5   4.1 | -17.0   1.4  260  11  6   8.1   4.4
 23000 -14.5   5.9  270  11  6   7.5   4.1 | -14.6   5.7  265  10  5   8.1   4.4
 22000 -12.3   9.9  270  10  5   7.1   3.9 | -12.2  10.0  265   8  4   7.5   4.1
 21000 -10.6  12.9  260  11  5   5.7   3.1 | -10.4  13.3  255   8  4   6.0   3.3
 20000  -8.9  16.0  255  12  6   5.7   3.1 |  -8.6  16.5  250   8  4   6.1   3.4
 19500  -8.1  17.4  250  12  6   5.8   3.2 |  -7.7  18.1  245   8  4   6.3   3.5
 19000  -7.3  18.9  250  13  7   5.6   3.1 |  -7.0  19.4  245   8  4   4.7   2.6
 18500  -6.4  20.5  250  13  7   5.6   3.1 |  -6.3  20.7  245   8  4   4.8   2.6
 18000  -5.6  21.9  245  13  7   5.7   3.1 |  -5.7  21.7  240   8  4   5.1   2.8
 17500  -4.8  23.4  245  14  7   6.0   3.3 |  -4.9  23.2  240   9  5   5.9   3.2
 17000  -4.0  24.8  240  14  7   5.9   3.2 |  -4.0  24.8  240   9  5   5.9   3.2
 16500  -3.0  26.6  235  14  7   7.2   4.0 |  -3.2  26.2  240   9  5   6.9   3.8
 16000  -2.0  28.4  235  14  7   7.3   4.0 |  -2.2  28.0  240  10  5   6.9   3.8
 15500  -1.0  30.2  235  14  7   7.7   4.2 |  -1.2  29.8  240  10  5   7.6   4.2
 15000   0.2  32.4  235  13  7   8.0   4.4 |  -0.1  31.8  245   9  5   8.1   4.5
 14500   1.3  34.3  240  12  6   8.1   4.5 |   1.0  33.8  255   9  5   8.2   4.5
 14000   2.5  36.5  245  11  6   8.3   4.5 |   2.2  36.0  260   8  4   8.2   4.5
 13500   4.3  39.7  250  10  5   8.4   4.6 |   4.0  39.2  270   8  4   8.4   4.6
 13000   5.6  42.1  255   9  5   8.5   4.6 |   5.2  41.4  275   8  4   8.5   4.7
 12500   6.8  44.2  260   8  4   8.3   4.5 |   6.5  43.7  275   8  4   8.6   4.7
 12000   8.0  46.4  265   8  4   7.8   4.3 |   7.9  46.2  280   7  4   8.8   4.8
 11500   9.2  48.6  265   7  4   7.8   4.3 |   9.2  48.6  280   7  4   8.6   4.7
 11000  10.3  50.5  270   6  3   7.7   4.2 |  10.5  50.9  280   7  3   8.1   4.4
 10500  11.5  52.7  275   6  3   5.2   2.9 |  11.7  53.1  285   6  3   5.6   3.1
 10250  11.8  53.2  275   5  3   6.3   3.4 |  12.1  53.8  285   6  3   6.3   3.5
 10000  12.5  54.5  275   5  3  10.3   5.7 |  12.8  55.0  285   5  3  10.1   5.5
  9750  13.2  55.8  275   5  2   9.6   5.3 |  13.5  56.3  285   5  3   9.4   5.1
  9500  13.9  57.0  275   4  2   8.5   4.7 |  14.2  57.6  285   4  2   8.6   4.7
  9250  14.4  57.9  275   4  2   7.1   3.9 |  14.7  58.5  290   4  2   7.7   4.2
  9000  15.0  59.0  275   4  2   7.9   4.4 |  15.4  59.7  290   3  2   8.4   4.6
  8750  15.6  60.1  270   4  2   8.4   4.6 |  16.0  60.8  290   3  2   8.6   4.7
  8500  16.2  61.2  260   3  2   7.7   4.2 |  16.6  61.9  290   3  1   8.0   4.4
  8250  16.7  62.1  255   3  1   7.0   3.8 |  17.2  63.0  285   2  1   7.4   4.1
  8000  17.2  63.0  235   2  1   6.5   3.6 |  17.8  64.0  285   2  1   6.9   3.8
  7750  17.7  63.9  215   2  1   6.3   3.5 |  18.3  64.9  280   2  1   6.3   3.5
  7500  18.2  64.8  200   3  1   5.4   3.0 |  18.8  65.8  280   2  1   7.5   4.1
  7250  18.5  65.3  185   3  2   4.7   2.6 |  19.3  66.7  280   2  1   8.2   4.5
  7000  18.9  66.0  180   4  2   4.1   2.2 |  19.9  67.8  275   2  1   8.2   4.5
  6750  19.1  66.4  175   5  3   1.8   1.0 |  20.5  68.9  280   2  1   9.3   5.1
  6500  19.1  66.4  170   5  3  -0.5  -0.3 |  21.3  70.3  280   2  1  10.6   5.8
  6250  19.0  66.2  160   5  3  -1.1  -0.6 |  22.1  71.8  280   2  1  11.6   6.3
  6000  18.9  66.0  150   5  2  -2.0  -1.1 |  22.9  73.2  275   2  1   9.9   5.5
  5750  18.7  65.7  130   5  2  -0.0  -0.0 |  23.6  74.5  275   2  1  11.3   6.2
  5500  18.9  66.0  120   4  2   3.7   2.0 |  24.6  76.3  275   2  1  14.6   8.0
  5250  19.0  66.2  110   4  2   1.7   0.9 |  25.6  78.1  280   2  1  12.6   6.9
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           09/19/2014 at 1500 MDT          |       09/19/2014 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +25.8  LI... +0.6               | K index... +22.3  LI... +0.1
CAPE... +68.1  CIN... -96.5                | CAPE... +74.1  CIN... -114.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -66.9 -88.4  255  48 25   2.7   1.5 | -66.4 -87.5  260  48 25   2.2   1.2
 45000 -61.1 -78.0  260  71 36   6.8   3.7 | -60.5 -76.9  260  70 36   7.1   3.9
 40000 -50.7 -59.3  260  67 34   5.3   2.9 | -50.1 -58.2  265  70 36   5.5   3.0
 38000 -47.5 -53.5  260  56 29   5.3   2.9 | -46.8 -52.2  265  62 32   5.5   3.0
 36000 -44.3 -47.7  260  46 24   5.1   2.8 | -43.5 -46.3  265  54 28   5.4   3.0
 34000 -40.4 -40.7  255  41 21   6.8   3.7 | -39.9 -39.8  265  47 24   6.2   3.4
 32000 -36.3 -33.3  255  37 19   6.7   3.7 | -36.2 -33.2  260  40 21   6.2   3.4
 30000 -32.1 -25.8  250  30 16   7.1   3.9 | -31.8 -25.2  260  34 18   7.7   4.2
 29000 -30.0 -22.0  250  27 14   7.1   3.9 | -28.9 -20.0  260  30 16   7.7   4.2
 28000 -27.3 -17.1  250  23 12   8.3   4.6 | -26.6 -15.9  260  27 14   7.5   4.1
 27000 -24.7 -12.5  250  19 10   8.4   4.6 | -24.4 -11.9  260  24 13   7.4   4.1
 26000 -22.2  -8.0  255  16  8   8.4   4.6 | -22.2  -8.0  260  21 11   7.4   4.1
 25000 -19.7  -3.5  265  13  7   8.4   4.6 | -20.0  -4.0  260  18  9   7.6   4.2
 24000 -17.2   1.0  265  12  6   8.4   4.6 | -17.5   0.5  265  16  8   8.4   4.6
 23000 -14.7   5.5  265  11  6   8.4   4.6 | -15.0   5.0  265  13  7   8.4   4.6
 22000 -12.1  10.2  265  10  5   7.8   4.3 | -12.5   9.5  275  11  5   7.9   4.3
 21000 -10.1  13.8  265   9  4   6.7   3.7 | -10.5  13.1  275   8  4   6.7   3.7
 20000  -8.2  17.2  260   7  4   6.8   3.7 |  -8.5  16.7  270   6  3   6.7   3.7
 19500  -7.2  19.0  255   7  3   7.0   3.8 |  -7.5  18.5  270   5  3   6.8   3.7
 19000  -6.3  20.7  255   6  3   5.6   3.1 |  -6.6  20.1  265   4  2   6.5   3.6
 18500  -5.5  22.1  250   6  3   5.8   3.2 |  -5.6  21.9  260   4  2   6.5   3.6
 18000  -4.7  23.5  245   6  3   5.9   3.2 |  -4.7  23.5  255   4  2   6.6   3.6
 17500  -3.8  25.2  245   6  3   6.1   3.3 |  -3.7  25.3  250   4  2   6.8   3.7
 17000  -2.9  26.8  240   6  3   6.0   3.3 |  -2.8  27.0  245   4  2   6.8   3.7
 16500  -2.0  28.4  240   6  3   7.1   3.9 |  -1.7  28.9  245   4  2   7.8   4.3
 16000  -1.0  30.2  245   6  3   7.1   3.9 |  -0.6  30.9  250   4  2   7.9   4.3
 15500  -0.0  32.0  245   5  3   7.5   4.1 |   0.5  32.9  255   4  2   8.2   4.5
 15000   1.1  34.0  250   5  3   7.8   4.3 |   1.7  35.1  280   3  1   8.3   4.6
 14500   2.2  36.0  260   5  2   7.8   4.3 |   2.9  37.2  310   3  1   8.3   4.6
 14000   3.3  37.9  270   5  2   8.0   4.4 |   4.7  40.5  345   4  2   8.2   4.5
 13500   5.1  41.2  285   5  2   8.2   4.5 |   5.9  42.6  360   5  2   8.2   4.5
 13000   6.3  43.3  290   5  3   8.3   4.5 |   7.2  45.0  005   5  3   8.2   4.5
 12500   7.5  45.5  295   5  3   8.6   4.7 |   8.4  47.1  005   6  3   8.5   4.6
 12000   8.8  47.8  300   6  3   9.1   5.0 |   9.7  49.5  005   6  3   8.9   4.9
 11500  10.1  50.2  300   6  3   9.0   5.0 |  11.0  51.8  005   6  3   8.6   4.7
 11000  11.4  52.5  300   7  3   8.6   4.7 |  12.1  53.8  360   6  3   7.8   4.3
 10500  12.7  54.9  300   7  3   5.0   2.8 |  13.2  55.8  355   6  3  10.9   6.0
 10250  12.9  55.2  300   7  3   5.8   3.2 |  14.2  57.6  355   6  3  11.6   6.4
 10000  13.7  56.7  300   7  3  11.1   6.1 |  14.8  58.6  350   6  3   8.0   4.4
  9750  14.4  57.9  300   7  3  10.2   5.6 |  15.5  59.9  345   6  3   9.2   5.0
  9500  15.2  59.4  300   7  3   8.5   4.7 |  16.1  61.0  345   6  3   8.1   4.4
  9250  15.7  60.3  295   7  3   7.0   3.8 |  16.7  62.1  340   6  3   7.9   4.3
  9000  16.3  61.3  295   7  3   8.3   4.5 |  17.3  63.1  330   5  3   8.6   4.7
  8750  16.9  62.4  295   6  3   8.2   4.5 |  17.9  64.2  325   5  3   8.6   4.7
  8500  17.5  63.5  295   6  3   8.3   4.6 |  18.6  65.5  315   6  3   8.3   4.6
  8250  18.1  64.6  295   6  3   8.4   4.6 |  19.1  66.4  310   6  3   7.7   4.2
  8000  18.7  65.7  295   6  3   8.2   4.5 |  19.7  67.5  305   6  3   7.1   3.9
  7750  19.3  66.7  295   6  3   7.8   4.3 |  20.2  68.4  300   6  3   6.7   3.7
  7500  20.0  68.0  295   6  3   9.5   5.2 |  20.6  69.1  295   6  3   7.3   4.0
  7250  20.8  69.4  295   6  3  11.1   6.1 |  21.2  70.2  290   6  3   7.6   4.2
  7000  21.6  70.9  295   6  3  10.1   5.6 |  21.7  71.1  290   6  3   8.0   4.4
  6750  22.3  72.1  295   6  3   9.9   5.4 |  22.3  72.1  285   6  3   8.7   4.8
  6500  23.1  73.6  290   6  3  10.7   5.8 |  23.0  73.4  285   6  3   9.9   5.4
  6250  23.9  75.0  290   6  3  11.4   6.3 |  23.8  74.8  285   6  3  10.6   5.8
  6000  24.7  76.5  290   6  3   9.9   5.5 |  24.5  76.1  285   6  3  10.5   5.7
  5750  25.4  77.7  290   5  3  11.2   6.2 |  25.3  77.5  280   6  3   9.1   5.0
  5500  26.4  79.5  290   5  3  14.6   8.0 |  25.8  78.4  285   5  3   7.3   4.0
  5250  27.5  81.5  290   6  3  13.2   7.2 |  26.4  79.5  285   5  3   7.6   4.2
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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