979
FXUS62 KGSP 010238
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1038 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm high pressure builds across the region Wednesday
through Thursday, before another active frontal system moves in
Friday and lingers through the weekend. The next front approaches
toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1035 PM EDT Tuesday: Convection diminishing but a cluster of
showers is moving SE through the GSP metro area. This cluster may
move SE across the I-26 corridor through the evening before
dissipating after midnight as forcing from a short wave interacts
with lingering instability. Isolated showers across the I-77
corridor will also be possible through midnight for the same
reasons. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected.

For tonight, a short wave should make steady eastward progress
and should be east of the fcst area by late evening, taking the
shower chances with it. Guidance is suggesting some widespread fog
as mid/upper levels clear off behind the upper wave. Hard to say if
this will be anything more than locally dense, but it will be
something we will have to monitor later tonight. Not a big push of
cooler air behind this system, so low temps will be around a
category warmer than normal. In the wake of that system, an upper
ridge builds to our west on Wednesday with sfc high pressure
building over the mtns to dry us out, though the min RH does not
look like a problem. High temps will rebound 5-10 degrees, and about
five above normal, under sunny sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...We are still expecting the atmosphere to
remain suppressed on Thursday as upper ridge axis is still progged to
build atop the SE CONUS and boost piedmont maximum temperatures into
the middle 80s.  Lower lvl return flow, well downstream of elongated
weak ohio valley front, will moderately nudge sfc dwpts upward on
Friday.  In combination with an approaching weak southern plains
s/wv, a smattering of showers and a few tstms are probable,
especially in the mountains on Friday.  Giving the weak
thermodynamic profiles progged, at this juncture, the bulk of storms
which develop on Friday are expected to be of the garden variety.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...Given the quasi-zonal and wavy pattern
setting up atop the region for the weekend, it is difficult to get
into specifics with respect to shower cvrg for any specific period,
but overall, unsettled is a good way to describe the sensible weather
for Saturday and Sunday.  Given the moist profiles expected,
numerous showers and embedded diurnally enhanced tstms are probable
at some point on both Saturday and Sunday. Thanks to clouds and
shower chances, maximum temperatures will be back closer to the
early May climo. Downstream of rather vigorous looking plains
cyclone, ridging will once again strengthen atop the SE CONUS early
next week.  What is means is a return to piedmont mid 80s by day 7
along the daily shower or tstm chances lowering to below climo.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: TSRA ongoing at KAVL and KHKY. Have short
TEMPOs in place for this. Elsewhere only isolated SHRA remain. Have
kept VCSH there. Convection should end quickly this evening with
lower clouds scattering out. SW wind becomes light and variable to
calm overnight. NNW wind at KAVL follows the same pattern. Guidance
showing good fog chances overnight for all but KCLT and KGSP/KGMU.
Can`t rule out restrictions there, but chance too low for the TAFs
for now. That said, have followed the fog trends and keep MVFR TEMPO
IFR at the other sites. LIFR and even VLIFR will be possible. Fog
should dissipate quickly Wed morning leaving mostly clear skies with
mainly cirrus. Light N wind develops during the morning turning NE
for the afternoon.

Outlook: VFR Thursday and into Friday. More numerous showers and
storms with related restrictions are expected on Saturday and
possibly into Sunday with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH