Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 161155
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

It`s been a rather busy morning across SE TX with the continued de-
velopment of strong/severe thunderstorms (generally along and south
of the I-10 corridor). Reports of large hail have been the main is-
sue so far.

With regards to how these current storms are going to affect the set
up for the rest of today/tonight; a lot remains up in the air, so to
speak, as hi-res models have not initialized well. Regardless, there
is still the stalled cold front located just off the Upper TX coast,
and the good likelihood of additional embedded shortwaves in the mid
and upper flow moving across the area (from west to east). These sy-
stems could help to draw the front back inland later this afternoon,
which will then act as a focus for re-development at that time...and
into this evening/tonight. Per the latest outlooks from the national
centers, SPC has our SW counties in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for
Day 1 with a Marginal Risk (level 2 of 5) elsewhere across SE TX. As
for the potential for excessive rainfall...WPC has all of SE TX in a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for today and tonight. As it stands right
now, the best chances for active weather (after this morning) should
be late this afternoon into tonight.

With a lot of the same ingredients/pattern in place for tomorrow, we
should see another round (or two) of showers and thunderstorms...but
timing will be the main problem. We`ll likely see lower POPs as well
as clearing skies by late Sun night as the cold front finally pushes
well off the coast. So, until then... 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A drier/cooler/quieter weather pattern will be in place across SE TX
by the start of the week as strong surface high pressure builds down
from the Central Plains. As the high moves east of the region by mid
week, onshore winds and low-level moisture are set to return through
the rest of the week. However, long-range models are also hinting at
the possibility of rain chances returning to SE TX with the develop-
ment of a weak coastal trough late Weds into Thurs. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Very messy forecast with amendments likely/expected through the day.
Convection through the overnight/early morning hours could help de-
lay the onset of the next round of showers/storms by this afternoon.
In the meantime, light/variable winds (away from the lingering SHRA/
TSRA) this morning will become more E/SE (7-12kts) as the day wears
on. For now, did re-start the mention of VCTS from 18-21Z (north to
south)...then transitioning to VCSH for the evening hours. CIGs are
going to be a mix through the day, but should fall to MVFR/IFR once
again tonight. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Elevated rip currents will remain a good possibility today...with sea
fog returning tonight. Otherwise, generally moderate east winds (from
10-15kts) should prevail through the rest of the weekend... but high-
er gusts will occur in and near the scattered thunderstorms which are
also going to prevail through the rest of the weekend. All of this is
courtesy of a nearly stalled frontal boundary over the area, combined
with a series of disturbances passing overhead. The front should move
further off the coast by Sun night with strong NE winds (15-25kts) in
its wake. Small Craft Advisories will the possible.

Light onshore flow resumes Tues, slightly increasing by midweek along
with the return of shower/thunderstorm chances by late Weds. 41

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Here are the daily rainfall records (inches/year)for Saturday (3/16)
and Sunday (3/17).

  College Station  Houston  Houston Hobby  Galveston    Palacios

Sat: 1.84/1979   2.83/1896    2.28/1998    2.71/1944   2.65/1944
Sun: 1.48/1988   2.57/1957    5.00/1957    2.96/1957   1.83/1997

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  63  70  52 /  90  80  50  10
Houston (IAH)  72  65  74  57 /  70  70  60  10
Galveston (GLS)  70  65  71  58 /  40  70  70  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...41
MARINE...41


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