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000
FXUS62 KILM 220523
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
123 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance will pass through tonight bringing an end
to the rain. Sunshine returns Monday as more high pressure
builds in from the west through Wednesday. A backdoor cold front
sags through the area Wednesday night followed by high pressure
building from the north.

&&

.UPDATE...
Midnight Update: based on current offshore observations from the
CORMP buoy array and Frying Pan Shoals (41013) I`m raising a
Small Craft Advisory for all of our waters until noon Monday.
HRRR, RAP, and NAM show winds should diminish during the
afternoon. -TRA

Update from 948 PM follows...
No big changes with the mid evening update. Most of the rain is
over but some light rain could re-develop overnight as the
strong upper trough approaches from the west. Lows should drop
into the mid to upper 40s most inland spots, several degrees
below normal for this time of year.

As for the marine forecast, a few gusts around 25 kt and seas
near 6 ft (mainly off the NC coast) are expected into Monday
but just not quite enough to pull the trigger on a Small Craft
Advisory at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Moist air riding up over cooler air behind a cold front will produce
rain into the evening hours. The front will move father out to sea
Monday as surface high pressure begins to move in but a passing
upper low could enhance clouds in the morning and result in a few
showers nearer the coast. Clearing is expected by afternoon.
Lows tonight will fall to the mid to upper 40s with highs Monday in
the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night looks like a radiational cooling setup with high
pressure overhead. Temperatures will drop quickly, reaching 40
degrees towards daybreak with a few upper 30s possible in the
normally chilly parts of Pender/Bladen. As the high gets suppressed
to the south by a very large and powerful storm off the coast a
local SW flow will develop. These light winds will allow for a
warmup, though the expected low 70s still a category below
climatology. Light SW winds continue Tuesday night brining lows that
are just a few degrees shy of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much in the way of thermal advection heading into Wednesday but
the increasingly high sun angle will bring highs back to normal. A
backdoor cold front then sags through Wednesday night with little
moisture flux ahead of it so not very good rain chances. High
pressure builds in from the north on Thursday. For now the forecast
will remain dry, but the GFS especially is showing some very light
overrunning rain.  This high moves offshore for the remainder of the
period while a mid level ridge builds meaning a dry and warming
period after Thursday`s brief cooldown.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low stratus deck near 1000 feet AGL and a mid level 6000 foot
cloud deck both exist across the eastern Carolinas early this
morning. There is a moderate to high probability that the 1000
foot (low MVFR) ceiling will dominate at most local airports
through 09-10z before it erodes with drier air arriving from
the north. There is a low probability that this cloud base could
dip below 1000 feet into the IFR category before 09z, mainly at
the two Myrtle Beach airports.

The mid level ceilings will be more persistent, likely
remaining along the coast until this afternoon before likewise
dissipating. North surface winds will increase to 10-15 kt
during the daylight hours, then should become light tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Wednesday. There is a low
probability of MVFR ceilings on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday:
N winds 15 to 20 KT are expected tonight and Monday. Seas of 3
to 4 FT this afternoon will build to 3 to 5 FT Monday. No flags.

Monday night through Friday... Northerly flow early in the
period the result of high pressure building from the west and to
a lesser extend a large system well offshore. Very light winds
slated for Tuesday as the high builds overhead and sinks
slightly to the south. Southerly flow returns Tuesday night
into WEdnesday as the high moves offshore but flow then veers
with the passage of a Wednesday night backdoor cold front. E to
NE flow is then expected for the remainder of the period. Wind
waves and E swell both taper early in the period, but swell
energy should increase from the midweek on as the offshore low
deepens to 992 mb.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA/RJB
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...MBB/31