498
FXUS62 KILM 011946
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
346 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Forecast dries out and temperatures warm slightly Thursday and
Friday. A frontal boundary and disturbance aloft will bring
scattered showers and storms to the area throughout the weekend,
with some drying to follow late Sunday into Monday, but another
upper disturbance should increase shower activity again late
Monday into Tuesday before hot and dry weather arrives for
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sea breeze convection was ongoing as of this writing, driven by a
relatively moist, unstable, and uncapped environment with 1000-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE analyzed as of 18Z, highest in the Cape Fear region.
Outflow from these showers and isolated storms will act to
stabilize the nearshore environment and help push the sea
breeze further inland, bringing the shower and storm risk
gradually away from the coast through the remainder of this
afternoon. Near I-95, a surface trough pushing southeastward
has provided enough convergence to yield spotty showers along
it, although these have remained shallow and relatively short-
lived as they drift southeastward.

This evening and tonight, nocturnal cooling will stabilize the
remainder of the area not affected by convection. With virtually no
cool/dry advection, along with weak or calm winds and mainly clear
skies, signals are pointing towards widespread fog development,
particularly with the extra soil moisture provided by pop-up
convection this afternoon nearer to the coast. Further inland,
fog/mist remains likely, but how dense it can become is more
uncertain as somewhat drier air will be nearby, especially near/west
of I-95. Morning lows on Thursday will be limited by dewpoints and
subsequent fog and/or low cloud development, with low 60s expected.

On Thursday, after morning fog/mist/low clouds burn off by mid-
morning, mid-level ridging will support a very warm day with highs
reaching the mid-upper 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s near the
coast. Scattered fair-weather cumulus are expected to develop as
well, making for a summerlike day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid to upper ridge running up the Southeast coast will shift
slowly eastward through Fri night maintaining an unseasonably
warm and dry forecast with plenty of subsidence through most of
this period. Highs each day in the mid 80s inland, but closer
to 80 right near the coast with plenty of sunshine. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

Ridge moves far enough east with a shortwave and front
approaching Fri night. Any pcp should hold out until after
daybreak on Sat, but model soundings do show mid to high clouds
increasing through Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moisture will increase through the atmosphere ahead of a
shortwave and front into Saturday. Soundings show mid to upper
level moisture working its way down through the column into Sat
aftn as instability increases with enhanced lift due to
shortwave riding through. With a southerly flow backing to the
southeast with sea breeze Sat aftn, should see a good push
inland and expect increased convergence inland closer to the
front and as sea breeze pushes inland with best chc of pcp in
the I-95 corridor Sat aftn. Coast may remain fairly dry Sat with
some mid to high clouds or cu present and increase in pcp
chances by Sun morning before shortwave reaches off the coast
and weak ridging builds in. The actual front gets muddled but
chc of shwrs/thunderstorms increases again late Mon into Tues as
another shortwave moves through. The coast may see there best
shot of rain at this time. A deeper westerly downslope flow
develops for Wed with a hot day on tap as ridge builds up the
Southeast coast and H5 heights increase up to 583 dm. Should see
80s through much of the extended period tampered by clouds and
shwrs but by Wed, expect some 90s if timing holds that far out
in time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail today outside of brief
MVFR to IFR cigs/vis if heavy showers or tstms move over the
terminals. Otherwise, expect skies to clear tonight as diurnal
cu collapse and debris clouds from earlier convection
dissipate. Without any notable push of dry air into the region
and a weak pressure gradient, expect winds to become calm
overnight, which will support considerable fog and low cig
development, especially where rainfall has occurred. Opted to
message this with LIFR conditions late in the night, which
carries moderate to high confidence at this time, particularly
for the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR through the period outside of
early morning mist/low cigs from Friday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday... An increasingly ill-defined pressure pattern
will keep winds at or below 10 kts through the period while the
direction swings from southerly this evening to light and variable
tonight, then light easterly tomorrow morning and settling on
southeasterly during Thursday afternoon. South to southeast wind
waves in the 1-2 ft range will dominate the wave spectrum with a
weak easterly swell of around 1 ft at 10 seconds still holding
on.

Thursday night through Monday...A southerly return flow around
5 to 10 kts basically holds into early next week, backing to a
more SE direction in the aftn sea breeze each day. A longer
period easterly swell will mix in.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW