Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 222218
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
617 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief period of rain and snow is possible over Michigan and
  northwest Indiana this evening. No accumulation expected.

- Cool and dry this weekend with lows well into the 20s.

- More rain anticipated late Monday into Tuesday with warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The forecast area is in the middle of a split flow regime this
afternoon with a weak northern stream system bringing snow to
lower Michigan, and a second weak system coming up from the
south. The northern shortwave will continue to lift up and away
from the forecast area, but as the longwave trough swings
through the region, the tail end of the precipitation will
likely bring some more light snow into NW Indiana and southern
lower Michigan this evening. This will then sweep across the
rest of northern Indiana into NW Ohio before completely clearing
the area later tonight. Despite easterly surface winds, mid to
low level warm air advection has brought temperatures into the
40s, especially south of Michigan, and so mostly rain is
expected with the southern system. In between the two there
could be a mix of rain and snow, or some graupel, as was
observed this morning. Colder air will move in overnight, and
temperatures will fall into the 20s, so any lingering showers in
the morning will likely be snow. There may also be some lake
effect snow Saturday morning with a northerly fetch over the
lake. However, this trajectory favors far NW Indiana (Chicago`s
forecast area) as opposed to our forecast area, and confidence
is low that La Porte or Berrien counties will see much.

Dry conditions are then expected for the remainder of Saturday
and Sunday with high pressure over the region. Temperatures will
be on the cool side Saturday with breezy northerly winds.
Sunday will then warm to near normal as winds shift to the
southeast and the mid-level flow becomes more southerly in
advance of the next trough approaching from the west. This next
system will bring warmer weather for Monday, with rain moving in
during the afternoon and evening. Rain will overspread the area
on Tuesday. Dry conditions return for the second half of the
week with high temperatures starting in the 40s on Wednesday,
then rising into the 50s for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Weakening upper disturbance over IL this aftn will washout ewd this
evening. Expect decaying band of rasn over ne IL will follow suit
especially in light of very dry undercutting erly flow. Otherwise
tendency to MVFR conditions for a time later this evening/overnight
as flow backs nrly post upper trough axis.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...T


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