Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 211812
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
212 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers likely Friday morning, especially along and north of
I-80/I-90. A quick 1-2" of accumulation is possible in far southern
Lower Michigan. Slick spots possible for the Friday morning commute.

- Scattered showers (rain/snow mix) likely Friday afternoon and
evening between 5 PM to 11 PM EDT ahead of a cold front. No snow
accumulation expected.

- Dry and seasonable weekend with highs in the 40s.

- Warmer Monday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
  Additional chances for rain/storms Monday and Tuesday. Dry
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Dry conditions prevail this afternoon and evening along with light
winds. Clouds and precipitation chances increase overnight as a warm
front lifts north. An area of low pressure will eject out of the
Central Plains and its attendant warm front lifts into Lower
Michigan. Hi-res model guidance has good consensus on the timing and
type of precipitation Friday morning; Precipitation begins in far
northwest Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan as snow around
06Z Friday. Snow showers will progress east, mainly staying along
and north of I-80/I-90. Any snow that falls Friday morning will
be a wet snow with snow ratios between 8-10:1. A quick 1-2" of
accumulation is possible in far southern Lower Michigan between
06- 15Z Friday morning. Slick spots are possible, especially on
bridges and overpasses. South of I-80/I-90, it will be dry. A
large temperature gradient will be observed tomorrow; far
southern Michigan will stay in the low to mid 40s, while our far
southern counties could reach 60 thanks to WAA behind the warm
front!

On Friday evening, a cold front sweeps through, bringing additional
precipitation chances to the entire forecast area. Scattered rain
showers will move through between 21Z Friday to 03Z Saturday, with a
possible changeover to a rain/snow mix as temperatures fall in the
evening. As the front moves through, it will have less and less
moisture to work with (the better moisture will be off to the
south), so the best chances for precipitation will be west of I-69.
Isolated rain/snow showers are possible through 06Z Saturday.

As high pressure builds over Ontario, a cool, dry weekend is
ahead. Northerly winds aid in CAA; highs will be in the low to
mid 40s both days and wind gusts up to 20 mph. The next chance
for rain (and maybe a few thunderstorms!) arrives Monday night
ahead of another cold front. A negatively tilted trough
progresses through the Central and Southern Plains late in the
weekend into early next week. A few 500mb shortwaves will move
through on Monday and Tuesday, and when combined with pockets of
500mb CAPE, may provide enough energy for a few rumbles of
thunder Monday night and into the day on Tuesday. Temperatures
will be slightly above normal throughout next week, with highs
in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Mid level clouds will
gradually thicken and lower in advance of an approaching warm
front. Better snow chances within an associated corridor of
moist isentropic upglide will reside just north of the MI state
border late tonight into Thursday morning. This activity could
briefly clip KSBN. However, confidence in snow and any vis
reductions occurring remains too low for a mention in the TAF at
this time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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