373
FXUS64 KJAN 010156 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
856 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Rest of Tonight...Weak ridging aloft and surface high pressure will
maintain quiet conditions across the forecast area tonight.  While
some patchy fog and low stratus will be possible across the area
toward day break Wednesday, especially south of the Interstate 20
corridor, skies will remain mostly clear overnight.  Lows will be
slightly warmer tonight, compared to last night, as they range from
the upper 50s to middle 60s.

The ongoing forecast is in good shape.  Other than some minor
adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current
trends, no major changes will be made on this evening`s forecast
update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Through Wednesday: Dry conditions are expected to continue
through Wednesday as shortwave upper ridging and a surface high
pressure axis extend along the East Coast. Though much of the low
level moisture that resulted in fog this morning is expected to
have eroded today, there may still be enough for patchy fog in
some areas late tonight into tomorrow morning. Guidance has
continued to trend away from the possibility of a convective
complex over the Plains moving into our area on tomorrow, so rain
chances have now been removed from the forecast. Considerable sun
is expected with above average temps in the offing.

Thursday through next Tuesday: As broad upper troughing expands
eastward toward our region through the end of the week, increasing
deep layer moisture and a series of upper shortwaves will result
in a more active pattern with periodic chances for rain. The first
such disturbance will approach Thursday, with a somewhat better
chance for convection originating to our west to move into the
area before likely weakening as it encounters stronger ridging
further eastward. A similar situation may play out Thursday night
into Friday. Heading into this weekend, the surface ridge axis
will shift more southward, with the higher rain chances becoming
oriented over the northern half of the area and drier conditions
as you get closer to the Gulf Coast. Rain development may also
become more diurnal in nature, with higher rain chances in the
afternoons. The surface ridge is expected to build early next
week, further limiting higher rain chances to north of the area
with only isolated PoPs lingering across north MS and AR by Monday
and Tuesday. Outside of disruption from clouds and rain,
temperatures will continue a trend toward summerlike.

Sufficient instability and deep shear may coincide at times for
thunderstorms late this week into early next week to be strong to
severe, but at this time there is not a specific favored time
period for organized severe weather. Any potential will be largely
driven by mesoscale features that are still too far out in time
to resolve. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites through the
remainder of this evening. Toward day break Wednesday, patchy fog
is possible across the Pine Belt, which could briefly result in
visibilities, and potentially ceilings, falling to MVFR/IFR
categories through 13Z. Flight categories will quickly rebound
after sunrise, as any fog the indeed develops begins to erode.
Winds will become calm to light with an easterly component
overnight. They will then increase from the east and southeast at
around 5 knots by Wednesday afternoon. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       61  88  64  87 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      60  89  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     61  89  65  84 /   0   0   0  30
Hattiesburg   62  90  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       61  89  65  83 /   0  10   0  30
Greenville    63  87  66  84 /   0   0   0  30
Greenwood     63  88  66  87 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/