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000
FXUS62 KJAX 161801
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
201 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Dry weather and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue
through today and tonight as high pressure ridging extends over
the region. High temperatures this afternoon will reach up into
the mid to upper 80s over inland areas and in the upper 70s and
lower 80s along the coastline. Potential for morning fog forming
over the eastern portion of the forecast area, in the vicinity of
the I-95 and US17 corridors. Overnight low temperatures will drop
down into the upper 50s and lower 60s for most inland areas and
in the lower to mid 60s along the shoreline.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

High pressure ridging should continue to hold across the area
through this period. However, the associated high center offshore
will break down a bit and nudge southward Wednesday and through
Thursday as a cold front tries to scrape the northern part of the
region with some shortwave energy aloft. Expecting to be dry
enough at the low levels with some lingering subsidence to avoid
any showers or t`storms anywhere across the area, however.
Expecting just increased cloud cover for much of Wednesday and
into Thursday as showers pass north of interior southeast GA.

Very mild temperatures will continue through the short term as
well. Readings well into the 80s and approaching 90 will be in
store on WEdnesday, with even more readings in the 90s likely
Thursday. The coast will certainly be cooler, but still getting
into the 80s all the way to the immediate coast by Thursday.
Overnight lows will also be mild, in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Another decaying front and accompanying upper level short wave
will try to move across northern parts of the area again on Friday
and Friday Night. Though once again, there will be difficulty
getting any POPs into our area with high pressure/subsidence
lingering. Potential does seem slightly higher for this event
however, as high pressure will continue to be nudged towards the
south and east of the region and the diffuse boundary stalls just
to our north. The stalled boundary should gradually set the stage
for increasing precip chances into the weekend with high pressure
finally starting to be kicked out to a certain extent and low
level moisture returning. Long range guidance is having some
difficulty with the location and timing of the front this weekend
and into next week, though it does look as though the front will
start to make it`s way across the area by the start of the work
week next week.

The period starts will continued above average temperatures Friday
and likely through the entirety of the weekend, coming down closer
to normal by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions will persist through a majority of the forecast
period with winds southeasterly afternoon winds becoming more mild
in the evening and overnight hours. Potential for early morning
fog formation occurring along TAF sites between about 09z-13z
with lingering conditions clearing by midmorning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its
axis westward across the local waters through Thursday, keeping a
prevailing southerly wind flow in place. Evening wind surges may
briefly bring speeds up towards Caution levels, especially
offshore, by midweek. A weak cold front entering the southeastern
states on Thursday may stall over the Georgia waters by Friday,
resulting in a brief period of light and variable wind directions
across our local waters. Southwesterly winds may strengthen
somewhat late in the weekend ahead of another approaching cold
front, which could bring chances for showers and thunderstorms by
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents Today and Wednesday
as onshore sea breeze expected during the afternoon hours with
surf/breakers around 2 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  87  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  64  78  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  61  86  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  82  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  58  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  59  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$