Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
000
FXUS64 KLCH 212105
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
405 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows a compact upper low
spinning over NW TX, embedded within a shortwave trough traversing
the southern plains. An impulse rounding the southeast flank of
the trough was producing a widespread rain shield across SW LA and
SE TX, with a couple of bands of very strong/severe storms noted
well offshore, at least 120 miles off the Cameron Parish coast.

At the surface, a weak trough is noted along the TX coast, with
mostly easterly winds across the area. The widespread rain and
clouds have held temperatures fairly steady today in the middle
50s to lower 60s.

Another round of storms is anticipated overnight as the core of
the upper low crosses the region, ushering a cold front through
the region. Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for the
weekend, with another strong storm system expected to move through
the area on Monday into Tuesday.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A brief respite from the rain is expected this evening as the
disturbance aloft moves further east. CAM guidance has been in
generally good agreement over the past 24 hours of a possible
squall line moving through the region overnight tonight in concert
with the upper trough axis/cold front. Forecast soundings show
decent wind profiles, with good deep layer shear, but overall
instability appears weak with a rather stable boundary/near
surface layer. This will likely lead to elevated convection,
reducing the potential for tornadoes, but the potential for bowing
segments keeps a risk for damaging wind gusts. Limited instability
and modest lapse rates will keep any hail risk marginal, and the
overall outlook for severe weather tonight is now considered
marginal per the latest SPC Day 1 SWO.

The line of storms will quickly shift east overnight, exiting our
eastern parishes by 14-15Z. Wrap around moisture associated with
the upper low will keep clouds in place through the day, with a
few showers possible as well. The front will not bring anything in
the way of colder temperatures but should keep lows and highs more
aligned with climatological normals.

Drier air will move into the region with the passage of the upper
low, with surface high pressure building south into the area for
the weekend. Dry weather will prevail on Saturday, with partly
cloudy to mostly sunny skies expected. Daytime highs will climb
into the 70s areawide while lows Saturday night fall back into the
upper 40s to middle 50s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Onshore flow really picks up Sunday and especially on Monday as a
large longwave trof moves into the central US. PWATS/TDs will rise
into Monday with increasing showers/storms. Given the
moisture/forcing and available instability, severe weather will be
possible. In fact, the SPC generally has areas north of I-10 in a
15% chance for severe weather. This is something that we will be
watching closely as we move into the weekend. The biggest questions
will be timing as some model differences remain and then the
strength of the marine layer/potential destabilization. However
regardless of strong destabilization, the forcing and wind fields
should alone be enough for at least some severe risk, with the
northern portion of the CWA seeing the greatest probabilities.

Thereafter, cooler temps and drier offshore flow will take hold.
Daytime highs will drop back into the lower 70s Tuesday/Wednesday.
However a warming trend is then expected as midlevel ridging
traverses the area. Daytime highs late next week may approach 80
degrees with a return of onshore flow.

78

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Conditions are currently a mix of MVFR and VFR as an area of
light to moderate rain spreads into the area from the southwest.
Expect prevailing -RA/RA (with intermittent TS possible) through
the afternoon as the rain shield expands eastward. Cigs will
gradually become IFR (or low MVFR at best) through early this
evening, with rain/convection diminishing briefly during the
evening. Another round of convection is expected overnight as a
line of storms associated with a cold front progresses through the
region after 06Z. This line should be exiting east of our
Acadiana terminals by 14-15Z. Winds will be generally east to
southeast today around 10 KT, shifting westerly behind the front.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Strong easterly winds will gradually taper off overnight as a
surface low and cold front move across the area, and the Small
Craft Advisory should be allowed to expire at 06Z. Showers and
storms will diminish briefly this evening, followed by a line of
storms moving west to east overnight in conjunction with the
front. Some storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds and
possibly some small hail. West to northwest winds will develop in
the wake of the front and strengthen Friday night into Saturday,
potentially requiring issuance of additional advisories. Onshore winds
will develop and strengthen from Sunday into Monday in advance of
the next storm system that will move through the area early in the
week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  68  50  71 /  90  80  10   0
LCH  56  74  53  75 /  80  40   0   0
LFT  57  75  55  75 /  90  80  10   0
BPT  58  77  54  78 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...24


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.