392
FXUS64 KLIX 052056
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
356 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A shortwave ridge axis will remain over the area through Tuesday
night, and this will help suppress most convective activity even
as a series of weak shortwave features rides over the top of the
ridge axis and through the Lower Mississippi Valley. At most, an
isolated to widely scattered shower or storm could develop during
peak heating hours tomorrow afternoon and again on Tuesday
afternoon, and the most likely area for development will be across
Southwest Mississippi and portions of Louisiana to the north of
I-12. Any convection will remain weak and low-topped as a fairly
strong capping inversion in the mid-levels remains in place. Any
convection will quickly dissipate after sunset with dry conditions
expected by the early evening hours both tonight, tomorrow night,
and Tuesday night. The combination of lighter boundary layer flow
and ample low level moisture will support some patchy fog and low
stratus development each night. The fog and stratus will quickly
clear by mid-morning as temperatures warm. Have stuck with NBM
deterministic values for temperatures through Tuesday night with
readings rising into the mid to upper 80s and lows dipping into
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
 Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The deep layer shortwave ridge axis will continue to induce strong
subsidence across the area on Wednesday. This will result in a
very strong mid-level capping inversion, and have no mention of
rain in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will
also warm beneath the highly subsident airmass with readings
projected to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s. A few
locations could approach record high levels. Even warmer
temperaturesare expected on Thursday as highs climb into the low
to mid 90s over inland areas. These high temperatures will likely
break records and those who are most vulnerable to heat should
limit outdoor activities on Thursday. These warm values on
Thursday are being driven by both ample subsidence aloft and some
compressional heating ahead of an approaching cold front.

The cold front will move into the Thursday night, and some
scattered convection will likely develop ahead of the front as it
moves into a moist and unstable airmass in the low levels. Lapse
rates will improve aloft as the influence of the ridge diminishes,
and there could be a stronger storm or two as the front moves
through. Otherwise, conditions do not look favorable for severe
convection due to a lack of substantial shear. The front will
clear the coast on Friday and a cooler and more stable high
pressure system will advect into the area on Saturday.
Temperatures will fall back to more normal levels in the lower 80s
on Friday, and could even cool to slightly below average by
Saturday as the heart of the northern stream cold pool moves in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions and southerly winds of around 10 knots
are expected through the evening hours. After 06z, conditions look
favorable for some boundary decoupling to occur over inland
areas, and have included IFR ceilings and visibilities in the
forecast from 08z to 14z at MCB and BTR. At ASD and HDC, IFR
conditions will be shorter in duration and more conditioned on how
light boundary layer gets tonight. Given the lower probabilities
for these terminals, have only included a TEMPO group between 09z
and 13z for IFR ceilings and visibilities. The remainder of the
terminals will see a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings between 08z and
16z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Through Wednesday, the region will remain on the western periphery
of a broad surface high. This will keep prevailing southerly flow
of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet in place. By Thursday,
the approach of a cold front will result in a slightly tighter
pressure gradient over the coastal waters, and this should push
winds into exercise caution range of 15 to 20 knots. The front is
expected to slip through the waters on Friday. Winds will shift to
the north and remain elevated in exercise caution range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  86  69  87 /  10  40  20  20
BTR  70  87  72  89 /  10  40  10  10
ASD  71  86  72  88 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  73  85  74  87 /  20  20  10  10
GPT  73  84  74  85 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  71  84  72  84 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG