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000
FXUS64 KLIX 180847
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
347 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Conditions will remain relatively similar for the next few days.
Temps will continue to top out near 90 for some areas which is a bit
warmer than where we should be for this time of year(climo is around
80F). Subtropical jet influences will keep the area with cloud cover
and a mild weakness causing a few light showers to speckle the area
from time to time through Friday. The main feature on the map for
the next few days will be watching a cold front sinking SE toward
the area. This front is currently located across Nebraska and
Missouri this morning. The front will get a kick today causing it to
move at a moderate pace toward the east. But forcing will become
lacking as it approaches the gulf coast. By Fri night, we should see
this front at least tap the brakes as it gets near the northern
portion of the area. This slowing/stalling of the front could cause
conditions that promote some advective fog development or at least a
"set down" event Fri night into Sat morning ahead of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A new upper trough in the polar jet will begin to move into the west
coast late Fri and as this front feels the tug of this new wave, it
will slow even further to a stall or at least quasi-stationary for
Saturday. The upper trough(located well off the west coast at the
moment) will move over this front and help develop a sfc low as the
upper winds break the top of the Rockies late Sat. The sfc low that
develops will have plenty of strong divergence aloft owing to strong
dynamic lift. The problem with this area is the stability below. The
area this divergence moves over is behind the cold front. Another
area of sh/ts will also develop along and south of the cod front
Sunday. But this area is lacking the dyncamis support, but it has
most of the lower level instability. To say that none of this area
along and south of the front will not support any strong storms
would not be right. There is a very small chance of a strong storm
with this area Sunday. PW highest values move to around 1.8 inches
which isn`t off the charts for this time of year but can still
produce some heavy rainfall. The upper trough will give the much
needed nudge to the front to move it offshore during the day Sunday.
After the near 90F highs we have had up to Sat, this front will be
noticed as it will drop temps back into the lower 70s for highs by
Monday with a few upper 60s north, and lows in the lower 50s with an
upper 40s thrown in to the north for good measure. By Tuesday, we
should see this frontal boundary begin to sneak back to the north as
a warm front. The subtropical jet will continue to buckle across
Mexico and may be able to provide this boundary with enough lift to
keep thing unsettled over the fronal interface. So, it will depend
on where this warm frontal boundary wants to buy real estate to see
whether our area gets storms associated with this or not. This time
of year systems can be quick to stall or move back over us, so it is
possible that this boundary could move close enough to give us
storms again by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs will remain until shortly after sunrise
then all quickly moving to MVFR and finally to VFR by mid to late
morning for all terminals. These same conditions should once again
show up for tonight into Fri morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Weak southerly winds will remain ahead of a cold front that will be
moving toward the northern gulf coast this weekend. This front
should move over the coastal waters Sunday bringing north winds to
the northern gulf of around 15-20kt. Some storms will accompany this
front as it moves through which could be strong. High pressure will
move east rapidly and an onshore flow of 10-15kt will be re-
established by Tue with sh/ts developing once again over at least
the offshore waters into mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  65  85  64 /  20  10   0   0
BTR  88  69  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  84  67  86  66 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  85  70  86  69 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  80  67  82  66 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  82  65  85  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE