Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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389 FXUS63 KLMK 091807 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 207 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to scattered storms possible this afternoon across southern IN. Main threats are gusty winds and hail. * Below normal temperatures return by Friday and persist into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 820 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Showers have ended this morning. The Flood Watch was allowed to expire on time in southern KY at 7 AM CDT. Local law enforcement reported some lingering flooded roads and road closures in portions of Logan, Allen, and Simpson counties. The previous Flash Flood Warning for that area has been transitioned to an areal Flood Warning, valid until 1015 AM CDT. Between 3-6 inches of rain fell across far southern KY, with some even higher totals noted just across the border in TN. The flashier small creeks and streams will continue to recede this morning, resulting in improvement to ongoing flooding situations. Larger stem river rises will continue, and River Flood Warnings are in effect for Drakes Creek at Alvaton, the Green River near Woodbury, and the Rough River at Dundee. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 820 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Area radar mosaic shows an area of moderate to heavy showers with embedded thunder working across central IN and central KY during the predawn hours. The threat of severe has come to an end with the best overall dynamics remaining south across the TN Valley for the remainder of the morning. Flood Watch was cancelled for northern parts of our CWA (all of southern IN, the Bluegrass, and north central KY) with central and southern KY remaining until 12z due to ongoing flash flood warnings and advisories. Bulk of the showers and storms will diminish through the morning before a sfc low currently centered over central IL works across central IN eastward dragging a cold front across the region. Other than the morning precipitation, the bulk of the forecast looks to remain dry. As cooler air slowly works in behind the departing sfc low and cold front, steep low-level lapse rates and a sfc trough behind the cold front later this afternoon/evening could spark an isolated/sct`d storm mainly across our southern IN counties this afternoon. SPC has that area under a marginal risk with gusty winds and hail the main threats from some of these storms. Overall the threat and confidence is low, especially compared to the severe threat the last couple of days. Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80. Overnight some low level stratus could build back in over the area as cold air advects in over the region as winds become north- northwest. Lows will be in the low/mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 820 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 An amplified pattern develops over the CONUS for the end of the week and into the weekend as a deep trough develops across the eastern third of the US and a large expansive ridge over the western US. This will send a series of shortwave troughs through the Ohio Valley Friday and into the weekend. This will result in temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal Friday and Saturday before moderating closer to normal Sunday into early next week. There could be few chances of scattered showers or isolated storms on Saturday as the second shortwave trough drops in across the Ohio Valley from the northwest. Sunday into the early part of next week will feature a closed low over the Four Corners working eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Slight ridging aloft along with a sfc high will bring dry and mainly sunny weather for Sunday. As the closed low approaches the Ohio Valley, it will open up and develop a weak sfc low over the central US and push it across the region late Monday into Tuesday. We could get some showers and a few thunderstorms with this system. Another weak system could work through Wednesday with additional chances of showers and storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A sfc low over central Indiana will move ESE across southern OH this afternoon and evening, dragging a cold front southeast through the area. BKN MVFR stratus is in the process of scattering and lift from SW to NE as drier air begins to filter in from the west. Southwesterly sfc winds will gust to 20-25 kts through sunset, with winds veering westerly and gradually diminishing 00-06z Fri. Isolated convection will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly north of I-64. However, coverage will be much too low and likely too far north to consider any TSRA mention in the SDF and LEX TAFs. A second sfc trough is forecast to drop south through the area overnight into Friday morning, with cooler air and winds veering northerly in its wake. MVFR stratus is likely to overspread the region from north to south early Friday morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...EBW SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...EBW