Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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271 FXUS64 KLUB 070728 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 228 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A stacked cyclone will loiter over the western Dakotas today while our area sits under cyclonic westerly flow. At the surface, a Pacific front was clearing the southern Rolling Plains at 2 AM ahead of lower thicknesses; however, this modest cooling will be erased by this afternoon as pressure falls sharpen from southeast CO through eastern NM and restore very breezy SW winds. Deep mixing once again along with a compressional warming component should have little trouble pushing highs into the upper 80s to near 90. NBM struggled with highs yesterday and appears to be suffering the same bias today, so opted for its warmer 75th percentile which is closer to MOS. Cyclogenesis in southeast CO meanwhile will depart for northern OK by daybreak and in the process drag a weak cold front into our northern zones after midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Upper-level troughing will remain elongated across the northern U.S. on Wednesday which will keep zonal flow over our forecast area. The upper-level pattern won`t change much until the weekend, when an upper-level low will approach the forecast area. This will keep our forecast area pretty tranquil through the week with dry conditions expected. High temperatures on Wednesday will remain above normal with temperatures in the 80s. However, a cold front will drop south through the area on Thursday bringing a return of cooler temperatures to our forecast area. Thursday through the weekend easterly upslope surface flow will persist keeping high temperatures mostly in the 70s. As stated above this weekend will get a little more interesting as an upper-level low approaches the forecast area. Ensemble guidance shows a spread on when exactly this will move over the forecast area (anywhere from Saturday to Monday) but at this time it looks like Sunday will have the highest potential for precipitation around 30%. /WI && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Continued VFR with light W winds backing SW and becoming gusty by midday at all terminals. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...93