Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
000
FXUS61 KLWX 151823
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
223 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south of the area this evening.
Cool high pressure briefly returns to the area Saturday before
a secondary cold front crosses Sunday into early next week. This
brings a return to below normal temperatures next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cdfnt currently stretches from near NYC southwest across
southern Pennsylvania to the northwest part of the fcst area
into southern WV and KY. A few sprinkles or very light showers
are noted along this front currently moving through the
Lancaster PA area. A thick high overcast and a westerly sfc
flow will limit air mass destabilization ahead of this front
with just sprinkles or very brief showers expected with the
frontal passage. LightningCast product suggest best chance for
thunderstorms is along the NC/VA border with shortwave energy
moving across southern VA. Even across southern MD and
Fredericksburg area, the thunderstorm potential for those areas
appears doubtful at this time. Awaiting NUCAPS data from an
1820Z NOAA-20 pass to see if it can show any instability and/or
moisture gradients. Nevertheless, a few showers remain possible
along the AKQ/LWX CWA boundaries.
The front will push south of the area this evening with any
showers ending by 03Z if not sooner. Clearing will take place
overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface ridging will build over the area Saturday
supporting clear skies. It will be cooler with highs in the mid
60s, but still pleasant given plenty of sunshine and light
winds. A secondary dry cold front will cross the area Sunday
morning bringing a few rain showers to the mountains. Temps will
still be above normal given strengthening downslope flow. but it
will feel much cooler with winds gusting as high as 30-35 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the start of the work week, the synoptic pattern amplifies over
the east central CONUS as an upper trough digs into the Ohio Valley
and Mid-Atlantic Monday. A series of minor disturbances will bring a
few bursts of possible snow to the Alleghenies from Monday morning
into Tuesday night.
Gusty winds are expected with this system, hanging around the area
through midweek, though the strongest winds are expected Monday with
the strongest gradient, gusting 25-35 mph and up to around 40-45 mph
in the higher elevations along the Allegheny Front. After Monday,
winds gusting around 25-30 mph are possible each afternoon through
Wednesday, briefly diminishing overnight Tuesday night.
Temperatures drop hard by Monday, with highs 10-15 degrees lower
than Sunday and near or below normal. By midweek, temperatures
begin to moderate as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
By Friday highs in the upper 50s to low 60s return, but with
cloud cover and rain chances as the next system approaches.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Wind shift to the NW is expected in the next couple of hours.
Chance of showers or thunderstorms appear to be diminishing
quickly and have kept out of the fcst. Main significant impact
across the terminals will be gusty NW winds Sunday gusting up to
30 kt.
VFR conditions are expected Monday through Thursday with any
possible precipitation during the first half of the week limited to
the Alleghenies and as such not expected to impact the terminals.
The main concern will be gusty W/NW winds 25 to 30 kts on Monday and
20 to 25 kts on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions developing late tonight in NW flow. Winds subside
Sat, but strengthen again Sat night in southerly channeling.
Have issued a new round of SCAs. Winds strengthen further Sun
out of the NW behind a dry cold front.
Gusty and northwesterly winds are expected on Monday as a frontal
system moves through the area. By Monday morning, SCA conditions
become likely over the southern waters before quickly encompassing
all waters. Hazardous boating conditions likely continues through
Tuesday afternoon with Gale-force gusts possible at times Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
MDZ508.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...LFR/CAS
MARINE...LFR/CAS