042
ACUS11 KWNS 040603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040602
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-040800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwestern
Missouri...Northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

Valid 040602Z - 040800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat is expected to continue across parts
of the lower to mid Missouri Valley tonight. A watch extension in
area has been made for Cowley and Butler Counties in Kansas.
However, the line is expected to become increasingly marginal over
time, and new weather watch issuance is not expected to the east of
WW 182.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Hastings shows a
large-scale bowing line segment across southeast Nebraska and
north-central Kansas. This line of storms is located near a warm
front, which extends east-southeastward into northern Missouri. From
near and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints are in upper
50s and lower 60s F, with MLCAPE is in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range.
In addition, a shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery
over central Kansas. Large-scale ascent associated with the
shortwave and the instability will provide support for the ongoing
linear MCS for a few more hours. Isolated damaging gusts will be
possible along the leading edge of the MCS. However, as MLCIN
strengthens across the central Plains and instability decreases, the
wind-damage threat is expected to become more marginal with time.

..Broyles.. 05/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39459466 39969433 40309425 40469436 40599469 40689618
            40659680 40279733 39659798 39389816 39129808 39039744
            39019585 39199505 39459466