918
ACUS11 KWNS 071953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071953
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-072100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

Areas affected...eastern IL...IN...and southwest Lower MI

Concerning...Tornado Watch 195...

Valid 071953Z - 072100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 195 continues.

SUMMARY...Additional supercells are expected to develop and
intensify from the Lake Michigan vicinity southward towards the
Wabash Valley. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible,
with the tornado threat increasing as supercells mature into
Indiana.

DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells have been sustained along the
IL/WI border and earlier across the south part of Chicagoland, both
of which should weaken as they progress across southern Lake
Michigan. Several additional updrafts are gradually maturing farther
south over eastern into southern IL and northwest IN. Richer
boundary-layer moisture and stronger low-level shear across the
Wabash Valley portion of the region, all render increasing concern
for one or two of these storms to become long-track supercells.
Within an environment characterized by STP around 3-4, potential
will exist for a strong tornado. A limiting factor though with
southern extent is the degree of mid-level warmth/dryness south of
the intense jet that is ejecting farther north across northern IL
into southern Lower MI. This also renders uncertainty with how far
south sustained supercell development will occur in the near-term
over the Lower OH Valley.

..Grams.. 05/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   42318646 42628604 42458555 42098515 41288504 40068631
            38648677 38168743 38428884 38798902 39958849 40768846
            41468802 42318646