National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMEG 170253
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
953 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Skies are mostly cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to the upper 70s.
Scattered showers a few isolated thunderstorms continue across the
region. What thunderstorms that have developed this evening have
weakened quickly. While additional thunderstorms are expected to
move into the region overnight, severe weather is not anticipated
with these storms. Winds remain somewhat elevated across the
Missouri bootheel so will leave the Wind Advisory alone for now,

ARS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across portions of the
Mid-South tonight as a cold front slowly moves into the area. A
few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening,
mostly over portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado are
possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible over
northeast Mississippi on Wednesday and over most of the Mid-South
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Rain chances will linger
across the region for the upcoming weekend along with much cooler
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

GOES Water Vapor satellite trends show an upper-level low centered
over southeast Nebraska with a negatively-tilted trough rotating
through the Middle Mississippi Valley. This is producing some
upper-level divergence in the left exit region of a 125 kt 250 mb
upper-level jet streak. Meanwhile, surface analysis this
afternoon places a surface low over northeast Nebraska with a
trailing cold front extending south into east Oklahoma and back
into West Texas. A tight pressure gradient and the presence of a
40 kt low-level jet over the Lower Mississippi Valley is
resulting in elevated winds and winds occasionally reaching
Wind Advisory criteria over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT are in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees with surface dewpoints in the 60s.

Regional WSR-88D radar trends show scattered showers and
thunderstorms over central Arkansas. Short-term models and CAMs
show this convective activity gradually spreading into portions of
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this evening then
spreading east of the Mississippi River overnight. Surface-based
CAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg, moderately steep to steep
700-500 mb layer lapse rates, 0-6 km Bulk Shear values around 50
kts, and some low-level curvature in the hodographs support the
potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms containing
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado this evening.

Storms will gradually become elevated as instability decreases
with increasing inhibition towards early Wednesday morning.
Convective activity is expected weaken into Wednesday morning with
the potential for some re-development mostly over portions of
northeast Mississippi by Wednesday afternoon. Surface-based
instability is expected to be higher around 2000 J/kg with shear
somewhat less around 40 kts. This may be sufficient to produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms if convection initiates along
left over boundaries from tonight`s convection.

Additional showers and thunderstorms including the potential for a
few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night as a cold front moves through the
region. The front is expected to slow down over the Lower
Mississippi Valley for the upcoming weekend. This will result in
some overrunning rain this weekend. Much cooler temperatures are
expected for the upcoming weekend with highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions will diminish to MVFR as -SHRAs and -TSRAs impact
VSBYS at TAF sites over the next several hours. Although confidence
for TSRA remains lower than expected, added tempos for highest
confidence period in alignment with the TCF forecast.

Hi-res model guidance continues to advertise MVFR CIGS building
in behind the line of storms overnight through daybreak.
Conditions will improve tomorrow afternoon as the main trough
lifts northeast of the area.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ009-018-026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TNZ001.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3