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000
FXUS62 KMFL 211814
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
214 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern this
afternoon across South Florida as it pushes further into the
western Atlantic. At the same time, a deepening mid level trough
will continue to push southeastward from the Midwest this
afternoon and through the Southeast tonight into Monday. At the
surface, cyclogenesis will take place off of the Carolina
coastline this afternoon and the surface frontal boundary
associated with this system will push through Northern and Central
Florida tonight. While most of South Florida will remain dry for
the rest of this afternoon and into tonight, isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze
mainly in Palm Beach and northern Broward County this afternoon.
Any showers or thunderstorms that develop will rapidly diminsh
after sunset this evening. Low temperatures tonight will generally
range from the mid 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to
around 70 across the east coast metro areas.

On Monday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will gradually
approach and move into South Florida as the day progresses. Out
ahead of this front, chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase especially during the afternoon hours. There remains a
conditional threat of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm as
the latest model soundings show forecasted CAPE values around 1000
J/KG, near 50 kts of 0-6 km shear, and lower to mid level lapse
rates getting close to 7 C/km. An approaching shortwave could
provide the extra mid to upper level support for a strong to severe
thunderstorm or two especially if it passes close to the area during
peak diurnal heating in the mid to late afternoon hours. If the
shortwave approach and passage does not coincide with peak diurnal
heating, the chances of strong to severe thunderstorm development
will be reduced. The highest chances of strong to severe
thunderstorm development still look to remain along and north of
Alligator Alley. High temperatures on Monday will range from the mid
80s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 80s and lower 90s
across the southern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Models depict broad high pressure expanding across the E CONUS
and down into the peninsula to start the long term in the wake .
of a FROPA. The sfc ridge will bring a generally easterly flow
across SoFlo to start the forecast period, and occasionally
becoming breezy during the afternoon hours.

Overall subsidence and a drier air mass will keep rainfall chances
very low, with highest POPs remaining in the teens. This synoptic
scenario will keep mild to warm temperatures in place through the
rest of the week. Even a brief warming trend could establish next
weekend. Afternoon temperatures are expected to range from the low
to mid 80s, and nighttime lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. SSE
winds will range between 10 and 15 kts this afternoon before
diminishing this evening across the east coast terminals. Isolated
showers and storms will be possible at KPBI, KFXE, and KFLL later
this afternoon along the east coast sea breeze. At KAPF, winds
will increase out of the SW this afternoon as the Gulf breeze
pushes inland. These winds will diminish as the evening
progresses.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A moderate to fresh south to southwesterly wind flow will continue
across the local waters this afternoon and into tonight. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms will increase on Monday as a frontal
boundary approaches and moves into the area. Behind the front, winds
will become east northeasterly heading towards the middle of the
week across all local waters. A developing northeasterly swell in
the Atlantic behind the front could create hazardous marine
conditions heading into the middle of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm
Beaches this afternoon. The rip current risk could increase across
all Atlantic Coast beaches heading towards the middle of the week as
onshore flow develops along with an increasing northeasterly swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  87  70  80 /   0  50  10  10
West Kendall     68  88  67  82 /   0  40   0  10
Opa-Locka        71  88  69  82 /   0  50  10  10
Homestead        69  88  69  82 /   0  30  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  71  86  70  79 /  10  60  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  71  86  70  79 /  10  60  10  10
Pembroke Pines   71  89  69  82 /  10  60  10  10
West Palm Beach  69  84  67  79 /  10  60  10   0
Boca Raton       69  87  69  80 /  10  60  10  10
Naples           72  81  64  85 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CWC