000
FXUS62 KMFL 261921
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
321 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An upper-level ridge is situated across the FL Big Bend and NE Gulf
region as a sprawling surface high remains situated off the NE
Atlantic coast. The 12mb gradient from the center of this feature to
S FL is driving a breezy easterly flow across the region. However,
the overall atmospheric profile remains on the dry side. Daytime
heating has created a shallow well-mixed layer, and there is enough
low-level moisture to continue supporting a low-level Cu field.
However, there is no sufficient depth to this layer. Throughout the
column, ACARS soundings are only showing a PWAT value of 0.5in
currently. Even the 12Z sounding only had a PWAT value of 0.9inches.
This is right on the border of the lowest 10th percentile.

Warm, breezy conditions will continue today and tonight in response.
Winds over the waters are likely to increase overnight as well as
the gradient tightens even further. Overall, though, there is very
little change in conditions for the next few days. A dry, stable
airmass persists with a strong upper-level ridge locked in through
early next week.

Throughout this time-frame, the surface high will gradually sink
south, eventually settling off the FL coast. The prevailing easterly
flow should veer more ESE at that point, and a slight increase in
moisture is expected. A few more shallow showers are possible across
Atlantic waters, perhaps making it into the east coast. However, the
overall synoptic pattern will continue to support a mostly dry and
stable airmass through the entirety of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A prevailing easterly flow continues for Atlantic TAF sites,
subsiding some this evening with less surface instability, before
increasing again tomorrow. KAPF may see a sea breeze shift to the
west this afternoon. Otherwise, there are no significant aviation
hazards with any CIGs remaining higher than 3kft and showers
tomorrow remaining off the Atlantic coast. KPBI could see some VCSH
tomorrow, but probs are too low for mention at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Winds and seas are expected to continue increasing across Atlantic
and Gulf waters this afternoon and evening, with hazardous
conditions expected for small craft. This is expected to last
through the weekend and potentially into early next week, especially
across Atlantic waters. A few isolated showers are also possible
across Atlantic waters, especially closer to the Gulf Stream.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A gusty easterly flow continues to favor a high risk of rip currents
at beaches along the Atlantic Coastline through the weekend.
Remember, if caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim
against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the
shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for
help.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Dry weather continues into next week as a breezy easterly flow
prevails. While soils are drying out, RH values are expected to
remain above critical thresholds. There are no significant rain
chances for the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  80  72  80 /   0  10  10  10
West Kendall     69  82  69  82 /   0  10  10  10
Opa-Locka        71  82  71  82 /   0  10  10  10
Homestead        71  81  71  81 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  72  80  71  79 /   0  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  71  80  71  79 /   0  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   71  83  71  82 /   0  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  70  81  70  80 /   0  10  10  10
Boca Raton       71  82  71  81 /   0  10  10  10
Naples           67  87  69  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Flannery (TBW)