000
FXUS66 KMFR 181025
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
325 AM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing a few high level clouds
across southern Oregon and northern California, but cloud-free
skies are being observed across most of the area. High pressure is
the dominant feature and will continue to be through the remainder
of the workweek. Temperatures are rebounding somewhat, so after
cool mornings, expect sunny and warm afternoons.

A weak front moving through on Saturday will bring a low chance
of very light precipitation to the coast and into Douglas County.
Elsewhere, expect an increase in cloud cover, cooler
temperatures, and some breezy west to northwest winds 10 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 35 mph in our usually windy spots.

Most areas will remain dry through at least Tuesday when the
pattern starts to turn active once again. By Wednesday, a low
pressure system will slowly approach the Pacific Northwest.
Ensembles are generally split with the track of this low, which
will make the the forecast a bit more difficult as the impacts
will largely be tied to said low. However, the mid-level flow
pattern will turn from zonal (west to east) to a more southwest
flow pattern and some showers and maybe a couple of thunderstorms
could pop up Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of the frontal
boundary/low.

Should the low persist offshore as some of the GEFS would suggest,
then this showery pattern should continue through much of the
weekend. If the EC ensembles are to be believed the progressive
nature of the systems will also continue to provide some showers
and storms action to southern Oregon and northern California,
albeit with a different magnitude and location. Have gone with the
National Blend of Models as any extended forecast scenario is a
guess, and there is calibration of the ensembles in it. The main
message is to expect a more active pattern next week, but the
details remain fuzzy. -Schaaf

&&

.AVIATION...18/12Z TAFs...VFR ceilings and visibilities will persist
for all sites for the next 24 hours. Gusty north winds (up to 25 kt)
are expected along the coast during Thursday afternoon (after 21Z
until around 02Z Friday). -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Thursday, April 18, 2024...A thermal
trough will continue to bring gusty north winds and steep seas to
all waters today into tonight. The thermal trough weakens by Friday
and conditions will improve. Relatively light winds and low seas
continue into Saturday, though a weak cold front will move through
with some rain. Gusty north winds and steep seas are expected to
return later in the weekend. -Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$