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000
FXUS62 KMHX 201410
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1010 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front tracks south across the region and stalls just
offshore late today. An area of low pressure will lift NE along
the front Sunday bringing rain across the region. High pressure
briefly builds into the area Tuesday followed by a cold front
with limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High
pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
As of 1010 AM Sat...Low stratus is stubborn to mix out, but is
doing so slowly from S to N across srn parts of ENC. Currently
skies are clearing south of hwy 70 and east of hwy 17. The area
of clearing may act as a differential heating boundary for
renewed sct showers and iso thunder this afternoon, and thus
have highest pops generally along Hwy 17 and northeastward
towards the mainland of Dare and Hyde County where pops are
30-35% this afternoon.

Prev disc...As of 745 AM Saturday...Fog is starting to thin
out, so the dense fog advisories for duplin and onslow counties
has been cancelled. Scattered showers and thunderstorms that
went through southern counties will be moving offshore shortly.

Previous Discussion...As of 445 AM Saturday...Low stratus is
over much of the area, and fog continues building through much
of the CWA. SPS is currently out until 5:15AM, and will likely
need to be extended or upgraded to a DFA shortly. Thunderstorms
approaching Duplin County have quickly weakened, bringing
scattered light to moderate showers. Fog is expected to become
more dense over the next 2-3 hours, lifting from increased
mixing after sunrise, albeit a bit delayed with the low cloud
cover persisting. Temps are in the low 60s for inland ENC, and
upper 60s for beaches, except for NOBX which has temps in the
mid 50s from the northerly flow.

cold front sweeps southwards across ENC Sat afternoon shifting
the winds behind this front to a NE`rly direction. Scattered showers
moving through southern portions of the CWA will be quickly
pushing out to sea Sat morning. Coastal Plain should remain dry
in the afternoon, while a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
pop up along the OBX and Crystal Coast as the front makes its
way through. Temps get into the mid to upper 70s inland and
into the mid 60s to near 70 along the OBX on Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 530 AM Saturday...Lows in the mid to upper 50s CWA wide,
with calm winds and increasing sky cover ahead of a shortwave.
CAM guidance showing the greatest potential for isolated showers
along and east of hwy 17 ahead of the shortwave. Because of the
low coverage potential, stuck with Schc for much of the region,
becoming Chc for extreme SE portions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM Saturday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS through the long term bring a progressive pattern
with several frontal passages, including an area of low pressure
lifting off the coast Sunday and Sunday night.

Sunday through Monday...Shortwave energy moving through the
flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday
and Sunday night with favorable jet dynamics over the area.
Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and lift
along the coast through Sunday night and push the cold front
farther offshore on Monday. Widespread rain to develop across
the area Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts
expected around a half to one inch with highest amounts
occuring along the coast. NE winds, clouds and rain will keep
cooler temps across the area with highs expected in the low to
mid 60s. The upper trough will push across the region Monday but
guidance continues to trend southward and weaker with dry
conditions prevailing. Below normal temps continue on Monday
with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday through Friday...High pressure builds into the area
Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with
additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across
the area bringing the chance for a few showers, though moisture
appears to be limited with this system and will keep PoPs below
mentionable. High pressure builds back into the area on Thursday
and Friday with dry conditions prevailing. A warming trend will
develop Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s,
and a few upper 70s possible Wednesday. Temps cool back to the
low to mid 70s Thursday with a few degrees of warming on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Saturday...LIFR ceilings dominate, and IFR to MVFR
fog continues for all terminals. Fog is starting to lift as of
730 AM. Ceilings then begin to improve to MVFR/VFR briefly in
the afternoon Saturday. Ceilings drop again to sub-VFR as we get
into the evening/nighttime hours ahead of the shortwave
bringing rain through Sunday. Light winds persist across the
region through the period. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible along hwy 17 and the Crystal Coast in
the afternoon Saturday along a sea breeze.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...Low pressure passes along the offshore
front Sunday through Sunday night bringing widespread rain and
sub-VFR conditions across rtes. Improving conditions will ensue
on Monday with pred VFR through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday night/...
As of 740 AM Saturday...Pamlico Sound was added to the Marine
Dense Fog Advisory, the DF.Y for waters off the Crystal Coast
has been cancelled.

Previous Discussion...As of 538 AM Saturday...Foggy conditions
for the Neuse/Pamlico Rivers and Coastal waters from Cape
Lookout to Surf City have resulted in a Marine Dense Fog
Advisory this morning. Outside of the fog, quiet marine
conditions, with seas 3-5ft and winds light out of the south,
backing as you go north with a sfc low approaching. After fog
deteriorates this morning, winds shift to becoming northerly and
strengthen behind a cold front moving south this afternoon.
Current expectation is for gusts to remain below 25 kts, so a
SCA will not be needed for this surge in the afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms along the sea breeze in the afternoon should
remain away from coastal waters, cutting through the rivers and
sounds. Saturday night winds are northeasterly10-15kts, and seas
are predominantly 2-4 ft, with some 5 footers possible over the
gulf stream.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...A frontal boundary will be stalled
offshore Sunday with a deepening area of low pressure lifting
along the front Sunday into Sunday night. NE winds around 15-20
kt Sunday morning will increase up to 25 kt south of Oregon
Inlet including the Pamlico Sound in the afternoon through
Sunday night. Seas will build to 4-8 ft across the waters south
of Oregon Inlet in response, highest across the outer central
waters. Seas up to 6 ft and gusts up to 25 kt will linger in
this area Monday night. NE winds around 15 kt or less Tuesday
shifts to SW 10 kt or less Tuesday night, then increases to
10-15 kt Wednesday in advance of another cold front. Seas around
3-5 ft persist Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RCF/RJ