153
FXUS62 KMHX 291914
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
314 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A
cold front will impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Mon...Very quiet weather pattern in place over the
eastern CONUS this afternoon. Mid-level ridge remains overhead
today as high pressure centered over the Atlantic extends
onshore. This pattern will remain in place tonight, with
continued southwesterly flow keeping overnight temperatures mild
under clear skies - upper 50s to low 60s. Guidance has backed
off a bit on low stratus potential overnight, with now only the
NAM and ARW advertising such development. Both of these models
have a history of being too aggressive in showing low stratus in
south to southwesterly flow, and given the lack of support from
any other guidance (including a reliable GFS LAMP) did not
reflect this in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Upper ridge will begin to break down
tomorrow as a strengthening shortwave trough, currently digging
into eastern Texas, shifts eastward. Attendant surface low
pressure/trough will also move across the southeastern CONUS,
bringing unsettled weather ahead of it. Eastern NC will remain
under the influence of the ridge into Tuesday evening, keeping
conditions dry but with increasing high clouds as upper level
moisture increases. The minority of guidance quickest with the
surface trough/low does show some isolated shower activity
impacting the coastal plain around sunset tomorrow, but
probability of this is too low (under 10%) to include
mentionable PoPs. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer
than today, in the low to mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend

FORECAST DETAILS

Dry weather should prevail Tuesday with the system not making
its way to ENC until Wednesday. With this disturbance expected
to pass during Wednesday`s peak heating, showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the area (30-55% chance).
Although thunderstorms are possible, severe storms are less
likely as very little shear is expected.

Thursday has trended drier for showers and thunderstorms with
PoPs below slight chance. Temperatures will remain high with
upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both
the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west
contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing
chances for rain and thunderstorms (35-40%) by Saturday
afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into
the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still
well above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Tuesday/...
As of 125 PM Monday...The probability of sub-VFR flight
conditions is under 10%.

VFR conditions persist across all of eastern NC under warm
southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of high pressure
centered off the southeastern coast. Not nearly as much moisture
to work with today compared to yesterday and expect little if
any cloud cover through Tues morning, apart from some spotty cu
mainly south of EWN. Focus for tonight is nocturnal stratus as
low levels continue to gradually moisten. If any develops, most
favored sites would be EWN and OAJ. Even here, the reliable LAMP
guidance doesn`t show any chance of sub-VFR flight conditions
higher than 5%. The only deterministic members to show
restrictions are the ARW and NAM, which historically are too
aggressive with showing stratus/low fog particularly in
southwesterly flow regimes. Opted to keep a VFR forecast, but
trends will continue to be monitored.

Breezy southwesterly winds continue tomorrow with building cirri
as next mid-level wave gradually approaches the region.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Pred VFR expected through the period. An
approaching disturbance will bring some chances for
precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...Quiet boating conditions in place this
afternoon over area waters as high pressure remains anchored to
our southeast. Regional observations show southwesterly winds of
10-15 kt with seas averaging 3 feet with periods of 10-11
seconds. Little change in these conditions are expected through
the period. Like yesterday, an increase in winds across the
northern waters and sounds with a tightening thermal gradient is
expected and a few spotty gusts to 25 kt are possible. This is
not expected to last long enough to warrant SCA. A similar
pattern is expected tomorrow, although for a broader swath of
near-shore waters.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early this week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early this week, with inland
troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will
steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of
10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next
week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...MS/OJC
MARINE...MS/OJC