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000
FXUS62 KMHX 120510
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
110 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system and associated cold front will
impact Eastern NC today and tonight. High pressure then
builds into the area from the south this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Fri... The last of the showers and thunderstorms
are making their way across the OBX as of this update with
clearing skies rapidly encroaching upon ENC from west to east
this evening. Expect clearing conditions and precipitation
chances to quickly end within the next few hours across the
area. Severe threat in turn has ended across the mainland ENC
with just a low end risk for the OBX as stronger storms could
bring in locally enhanced wind gusts and a low waterspout
threat. Did not change much else overall as we are still
expecting a rather breezy rest of tonight across ENC.

Prev Disc...Low pressure will continue to lift into the eastern
Great Lakes tonight with attendant cold front pushing offshore
after midnight. Widespread showers with embedded tstms ongoing
this evening, with the threat pushing off the coast after
midnight. The initial batch of strong showers helped mixed down
some of the strong LLJ just off the surface. Some showers tstms
have redeveloped along a weak line from roughly Sneads Ferry
north to Washington, NC, lifting north through eastern NC.
Isolated strong storm threat will continue through roughly
12-1am. Strong gradient winds to 50 mph warrant the wind
advisory for coastal counties through midnight. Winds will
gradually diminish later tonight as the pressure gradient
relaxes. Coastal impacts expected to peak tonight with strong
southerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 7 PM Thu...Southwesterly winds though dry conditions
expected behind departing system. A shortwave drives through the
area late in the day, with a couple isolated showers possible
with this and its secondary cold front, though 95% of the day
and the area will remain on the dry side.

&&

.LONG TERM /fRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thurs... Cold front offshore will continue to
quickly push away from the region on Fri with a second
reinforcing cold front sweeping through ENC Fri afternoon and
evening. High pressure then builds in from the south and west
over the weekend and settles in off the SE Coast early next week
bringing fair weather to ENC from Sat into late next week.

Sat through midweek next week... Upper trough eventually pushes away
from the Mid-Atlantic on Sat and Sun with more zonal flow
overspreading the Carolinas this weekend before upper ridging builds
across the Eastern CONUS. A weak s/w trough may track across
the Carolinas Sun night into Mon morning before ridging
establishes itself. At the surface, high pressure builds in from
the south and west on Sat and Sun before setting up in the
Sargasso Sea off the SE Coast early next week. The pressure
gradient will remain tight between the building high pressure
and departing fronts and strong low well off to the north and
east on Sat allowing W`rly downslope winds to remain rather
gusty with wind gusts expected to be in the 20-25 mph range Sat
afternoon. Given the downslope flow dewpoints will likely lower
some and with temps in the 70s across inland areas, RH`s will
drop into the 25-30% range across the Coastal Plain. The
combination of stronger winds and low RH`s could result in some
elevated fire danger and if confidence in this threat increases
further a fire weather section of the AFD may become necessary.

As a second s/w trough moves across ENC Sun night into Mon, dry
cold front approaches and outside of some elevated SW`rly winds
and additional cloud cover Sun night little in the way of
impacts will be felt from this front. Afterwards high pressure
ridging remains in place promoting dry conditions and a gradual
warming trend through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Fri night/...
As of 115 AM Fri... MVFR conditions are quickly ending from W
to E across ENC with OAJ/PGV TAF sites now near or at VFR
ceilings and vis. EWN and ISO TAF sites will likely change over
to VFR ceilings within the next hour or two. With the line
between VFR and MVFR now along and east of HWY 17 expect
continued improving ceilings through the rest of tonight with
all of ENC likely seeing VFR conditions by daybreak. Expect
continued VFR conditions through much of the day Fri with a very
low chance to see a brief period of sub-VFR conditions Fri
afternoon and evening as some widely scattered showers make
their way across ENC with a secondary cold front surge. Other
than that expect continued VFR ceilings and vis through the rest
of the period. Given this the biggest threat will be the
continued gusty winds across ENC with SW`rly winds gusting to
20-25 kts tonight causing some crosswind issues at EWN and PGV
tonight. Winds to gradually becoming more W`rly by Fri afternoon
but remain gusty before winds ease Fri night.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Thurs... Expect primarily VFR conditions through the
TAF period as a cold front will be well offshore by Fri morning
while high pressure gradually builds in from the south and west
through the weekend and into early next week. The main concern
will be the gusty winds on Fri and Sat with SW to W`rly winds
potentially gusting in excess of 25 kts Fri afternoon and 20+
kts on Sat afternoon. Much lighter winds are then forecast from
Sun onwards.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 1025 PM Thursday...Gales continue across all waters,
sounds and rivers this evening, with gradient lessening after
04-06Z, and will have to be replaced by SCA`s. In addition,
seas across the waters already 10-15 feet and should build
slightly higher this evening, before subsiding some towards
morning. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms
expected this into the first part of tonight. Showers and storms
could mix down stronger winds.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thurs... Cold front will be well offshore to start
the period with a second reinforcing cold front quickly moving
across our waters Fri afternoon and evening bringing a SChc for
some showers/storms. Winds will be SW`rly at 20-25 kts with
gusts in excess of 30 kts across our coastal waters Fri morning
but quickly ease closer to 15-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts at
times Fri afternoon which should briefly end our SCA`s across
some of the inland rivers and sounds. As we get into Fri night
and Sat, winds veer to a westerly direction behind the second
front and increase once again with sustained winds around 20-25
kts and gusts up near 30 kts at times. Some minor funneling
could occur across the Pamlico River and Albemarle Sound given
wind direction but either way looks like small craft conditions
would be possible once again. Winds finally ease Sat evening
down to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts ending the SCA`s
across our inland waters. 6-9 ft seas north of Hatteras and 7-10
ft seas south of Hatteras will gradually lower Fri night into
Sat as the winds slowly ease with widespread 4-7 ft seas found
across all waters by Sat morning. Seas then fall below SCA
criteria Sat afternoon. Better boating conditions remain in
place through Sun before an incoming surface trough tightens the
gradient Sun night bringing the potential for more SCA
conditions before quieter weather finally returns to the marine
zones early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1015 PM Thursday...Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories
remain in effect for potential inundation 1-2 ft above ground
level (agl), rough surf and beach erosion, this evening into
Fri. Strong southerly winds will peak this evening, around the
time of high tide, will build seas and could lead to periods of
ocean overwash and beach erosion for southern facing oceanside
locales. The potential for soundside flooding exists for areas
along the northern half of Pamlico Sound ahead of and just
behind the front as well with winds becoming swrly just after
midnight. Minor flooding could linger along the soundside Outer
Banks as well as oceanside Ocracoke into Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ047-081-195-196-199.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ195-
     196.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ131-
     135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...DAG/TL/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX