087
FXUS62 KMHX 111117
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
717 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another cold front moves through the area tonight, followed by
high pressure building into the area early next week. A low
pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday but
another low pressure system will impact the area late in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 715 AM Sat...Shortwave trough is now well offshore this
morning, giving way to a weak mid-level ridge building over the
mid-Atlantic. Next weather maker (albeit low impact), another
well-defined shortwave, continues to dig into the Great Lakes
with an attendant surface low mirroring its track. The forecast
calls for it to dig further into the Great Lakes region through
the short term and stall over the northeastern CONUS.

Surface trough has largely eroded, giving way to weak high
pressure ridging in from the west. Cooler conditions prevail
today with ongoing CAA in modest northerly flow. Big temperature
differences anticipated with extensive strato-cu and cool
onshore flow tempering temperatures in the 60s, but inland more
breaks of sun allow highs to recover well into the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Upper trough and low pressure to our north
and west will drop a cold front across the Carolinas overnight.
A few CAMs are showing very spotty shower activity popping up
thanks to pre- frontal convergence but given dry sub-cloud
layers in model soundings think this will be little more than
virga to spotty sprinkles, and opted to keep mentionable PoPs
out of the forecast. The front will bring an uptick in low and
mid-level cloud cover, and along the coast a rapid veering of
winds out of the south and then west by daybreak Sunday.
Overnight lows very similar to this morning, in the low to mid
50s inland and near 60 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Dry and cool weather will continue early
next week as high pressure builds across the area. Unsettled
weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure
tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure
builds in on Thursday but another low pressure system will
impact the area late in the week.

Sunday through Monday night...An upper low will push across the
northern Mid-Atlantic states Sunday with an embedded shortwave
pushing across the area early in the day. Guidance showing a few
coastal showers early in the day but will quickly be overcome by
a drying deep layer west-northwesterly downslope flow. High
pressure will become centered off the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night
then will migrate offshore on Monday while ridging builds aloft.
Temps will be seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 70s on
Sunday and in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Monday. Dew points
will be much below normal however in the mid 40s to mid 50s
making for very comfortable conditions.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low
pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and
then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing
off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through
the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence
and southern stream moisture increases across the area with
PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across
the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc
cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated
thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip
will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger
storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and
greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip
amounts around 1-1.5" through the period. Temps will continue to
be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday
and low to mid 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Friday...There is some disparity among the
models with how the mid week system transitions as it moves
offshore late Wednesday with most guidance opening the upper low
into a wave with the system progressively moving east into the
western Atlantic allowing for upper ridging to build aloft
bringing a dry forecast. However, some guidance, e.g. the 00z
operational ECMWF, maintains a closed low as it tracks across
the Mid-Atlantic and stalls the low just off the Delmarva on
Thursday keeping cyclonic flow over the area which will bring
greater cloud cover with a few showers persisting across the
area. Since most guidance keeps a progressive solution have kept
PoPs below mentionable for Thursday at this time. Models are in
better agreement with another southern stream system quickly
moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance
differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the
Southeast and off the coast. But despite the differences, most
guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across
much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Sunday/...
As of 715 AM Sat...Flight conditions remain predominantly VFR
this morning across the TAF sites although EWN remains dogged by
a coastal strato-cu deck that will continue to hug much of the
Outer Banks through today. Band of lower stratus and a couple
spotty showers earlier this morning has eroded, and now expect
mainly VFR conditions through the rest of the period as high
pressure builds in from the west. A weaker cold front, currently
pushing across the Ohio Valley this morning, will cross the
terminals later this evening but with little fanfare other than
an increase in cloud cover and a very slight chance (10% or
less) of a stray shower especially for terminals north of OCW.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected across Sunday
through Monday as high pressure builds across rtes. A low
pressure system will impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday with
deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub-
VFR continuing into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Small Craft conditions persist across all
area waters this morning with increasing northerly flow in the
wake of low pressure departing into the open Atlantic. Regional
observations show widespread winds of 20-25 kt with gusts of 30+
kt, consequently building seas to a minimum of 5 feet, and as
high as 7 feet north of Cape Hatteras. Winds are expected to
ease through the day as weak high pressure builds over the
waters from the west. By tonight, another weaker cold front will
approach and cross the waters from the west, resulting in a
rather rapid veering of winds to southerly by midnight and then
westerly by daybreak Sunday. The westerly surge will not be as
strong as this morning`s but will still push winds to 15+ kt.

Local wave guidance, as expected, is not building seas quickly
enough north of Hatteras. Leaned on the NBM and WNA wave models
to nudge seas here closer to observations. Additionally, models
now hold onto elevated seas across the central waters slightly
longer than the previous forecast. Extended SCAs for these zones
to 00z Sunday, but otherwise left prior headlines intact.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...High pressure builds into the waters
Sunday and Sunday night, then moves offshore Monday. A low
pressure system will impact the waters Tuesday into Wednesday.

Sunday will see Wly winds around 15-20 kt and seas around 3-5
ft, except 2 ft near shore Onslow Bay. A backdoor front will
push through Sunday night with easterly winds around 15 kt or
less developing Monday with seas around 2-4 ft. Southerly winds
increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a
period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and
continue into Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/MS