398
FXUS63 KMKX 210233 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
933 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued frost and freeze risk tonight into Sunday morning,
  with additional chances mid to late next week.

- Fire weather concerns possible on Monday.

- Rain potential and gusty conditions return Monday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 933 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Clouds continue to clear out as expected from the west this
evening, with the clearing persisting overnight. Temperatures
are on track for the expected freeze tonight into early Sunday.
Kept the east free from frost/freeze headlines given the later
exit of clouds and somewhat higher winds toward the lake.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 311 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Tonight through Sunday night:

Broken to overcast skies with a few flurries and sprinkles
continue across the area into this evening before wrap around
moisture exits the area tonight. Expect clear skies and
lessening winds to yield prime conditions for radiational
cooling tonight. Low temperatures between 28 and 32 degrees are
expected across the majority of southern Wisconsin, while
regions near Lake Michigan that experience longer duration cloud
cover remain warmer, in the 33 to 35 degree range. Therefore, a
Freeze Warning is in effect from midnight tonight through 8 AM
CDT Sunday across all of southern Wisconsin away from Sheboygan,
Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha counties. Expansion
eastward will be monitored tonight.

Clear skies are expected Sunday morning, allowing temperatures
to rise quickly into the 40s, with afternoon heights in the
upper 50s to near 60 degrees expected. Scattered diurnal cumulus
cloud cover is expected to develop during the afternoon hours,
dissipating into the evening. In addition, northwesterly winds
are expected to gust to 20 to 25 mph once again. Overnight lows
in the mid 30s are expected, with lower wind speeds potentially
leading to frost deposition across low-lying areas.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 311 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Monday through Saturday:

Gusty southwesterly winds develop Monday ahead of an approaching
CAA driven shortwave from the Canadian Prairies. Expecting
increasing cloud cover with temperatures rising into the
mid-60s. Low relative humidity values coupled with increased
winds and warmer temperatures may lead to fire weather concerns
on Monday afternoon.

Shortwave brings next chance of precipitation on Monday night
into Tuesday, with current ECMWF and GFS modeling indicating a
stall just to the east and bringing in wrap-around precipitation
and gusty northerly winds going into Tuesday. A few rumbles of
thunder are possible Tuesday afternoon.

A period of dry, quiet weather comes into play Tuesday night
through Thursday as Arctic high pressure dominates. That being
said, additional frost and freeze headlines are possible during
this time frame as cooler air streams into the area.

Next storm system develops in the central Great Plains Thursday
night, lifting a warm front into the region as early as Thursday
night into Friday morning. Low pressure propagates eastward
through southern Wisconsin Friday night into Saturday, with
thunderstorms expected Friday.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 933 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Clouds will gradually clear out west to east late this evening
into tonight, with mostly clear skies likely on Sunday. Could
see some VFR afternoon cumulus tomorrow, but likely scattered at
best. Lighter winds overnight tonight will be on the breezy side
out of the west/northwest on Sunday, easing again for Sunday
evening and overnight.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 311 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Northwesterly winds continue across Lake Michigan into tonight
as high pressure over the northern Great Plains builds eastward
and a weak cold front remains draped across southern Ontario.
Lighter winds expected late tonight into Sunday as high pressure
builds across the Lake. Light and variable winds will then
occur with the passage of the high Sunday night. Breezy south
winds will then develop Monday into Tuesday as low pressure
approaches the northern Great Lakes from Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. Winds could approach gale force during this time, and
will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds shift to
northwesterly Tuesday night as the low passes eastward, with
Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing into Wednesday.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-
     WIZ070 until 8 AM Sunday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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