Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
837 FXUS63 KMKX 110207 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 907 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move through this evening. Gusty winds to 40 MPH are expected, and small hail may occur. Any severe weather is unlikely. - Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) Sunday afternoon through Monday, and again mid to late week next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 907 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Line of showers and some thunderstorms continues to push southeast through the area this evening, along a cold front and a rather potent 500 mb shortwave trough. These showers and storms are high-based and are becoming outflow dominant with the past several radar scans. These are low-topped and working with very little mean layer CAPE, with the loss of daytime heating. Reports so far have been for wind gusts to around 40 MPH as this line pushes through. There may be some small hail that occurs as well, with freezing levels quite low. So, would expect the gusts to 40 MPH to be the main theme with this line of showers and storms through the rest of the evening. They should move out of the area around midnight CDT. Winds will shift northwest behind the front, and the clouds should gradually move out after midnight. This may allow for some time to see the aurora. Wood && .SHORT TERM... Issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Rest of this Afternoon through Saturday night: A few showers have popped up this afternoon over far southeastern Wisconsin. These will remain very isolated, and should have minimal impacts. Attention then turns to a line of showers and thunderstorms that will move through the region this evening. These are associated with a cold front and compact upper level shortwave. The latest timing brings this activity to the Dells around 6 PM, the Madison area around 7 PM, and Milwaukee around 9 PM. This will be a relatively narrow area of precipitation, with rain chances only lasting an hour or two. Dry, well mixed low levels and low freezing levels favor frequent wind gusts to around 40 MPH and small hail with this activity. A few of the strongest storms may approach severe limits for a short time, but the severe threat is not expected to be widespread or persistent. Once the rain ends, skies should clear for a time late tonight. Lows will fall into the mid 40s. Saturday will be a generally pleasant day, with breezy northwest winds and highs in the 60s. A few showers or sprinkles will be possible near Lake Michigan during the late morning and afternoon due to weak convergence and continued cyclonic flow aloft. Temperatures Saturday night will fall into the mid 40s, before holding steady or starting to rise during the latter portion of the overnight hours, as warm advection commences across the region. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Sunday through Friday: A warm Mother`s Day is in store for Sunday, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. A cold front moving into the area will combine with increasing moisture to set off showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon (20-40% chance) and especially evening (40-60% chance) hours. Rain chances continue Monday, especially south of I-94, as a southern stream shortwave moves through the lower Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Upper level ridging will favor relatively quiet weather Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures around or just a touch above average. Rain chances increase again late in the week as a series of shortwaves begin to approach from the west. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 907 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Line of showers and some thunderstorms continues to push southeast through the area this evening, along a cold front. Reports so far have been for northwest wind gusts to around 40 MPH as this line pushes through. There may be some small hail that occurs as well, with brief MVFR to IFR visibility drops. So, would expect the gusts to 40 MPH to be the main theme with this line of showers and storms through the rest of the evening. They should move out of the southeast terminals around midnight CDT. Light south to southwest winds will shift to the northwest behind the front, and linger into Saturday. Some gusts to 20 knots may occur on Saturday. A northeast to east lake breeze may develop in the afternoon close to the lakeshore terminals, along with an isolated shower. VFR category clouds should gradually move out after midnight, though they may linger at Sheboygan into Saturday. These clouds may build back into the area on Saturday for terminals near Lake Michigan. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 907 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Low pressure around 29.7 inches over northeast Wisconsin will move across northern Lake Michigan overnight, then deepen slightly and slow down over Lake Huron on Saturday. It will drag a cold front across the lake into the overnight hours, and bring showers and a few thunderstorms with it. Modest south to southwest winds will shift to northwest with the frontal passage and continue through Saturday. Weak high pressure around 29.9 inches will then move across the lake Saturday evening, with south winds returning and becoming breezy after it passes for Sunday. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee