739
FXUS62 KMLB 061328
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
927 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...East-west oriented surface ridge axis to lie
across the central FL peninsula over the next 24 hours. Models
suggest some drier air infiltrating along the Treasure Coast and
adjacent coastal waters during the day, with highest PWATS (1.60
inches) across the interior and I-4 corridor. While we cannot rule
out an ISOLD sprinkle/shower along the coast this morning, highest
PoPs likely in the afternoon-early evening in association with the
inland moving ECSB and eventual boundary interactions, especially W
of I-95 and across the I-4 corridor where highest PoPs (30pct) will
reside. Steering flow remains weak, with storm motion slow/erratic,
once again. Locally heavy rainfall in a spot or two cannot be ruled
out. Aloft, shortwave ridging will push into the western Atlc ahead
of approaching weak shortwave troughing that passes across the state
late today.

Morning SE winds 5-10 mph will transition to ESE with speeds
increasing to 10-15 mph (highest along the coast) and some stronger
gusts expected as the ECSB ventures inland. Afternoon highs similar
to the previous day, with M80s at the coast and U80s-90F inland.
Lows tonight continue warm/mild well into the 60s and L70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR conds prevailing. Greatest moisture across
the I-4 corridor this afternoon/early evening, carrying SCT SHRA &
ISOLD TSRA over this area. "Vicinity" and "TEMPO" wording to be
added as necessary and reductions to MVFR for CIGs/VSBYS in/around
convection. SE morning winds 5-10 kts will transition ESE 10-15 mph
(highest along the coast) with some higher gusts as the sea breeze
pushes inland. Wind speeds diminish this evening, once again,
becoming light SRLY late in the night.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure ridging across the
central FL peninsula with SE/ESE winds 10-15 kts, becoming more SRLY
later this evening/overnight and diminishing to 6-12 kts. Seas
continue 2-3 ft. ISOLD showers forecast and perhaps an ISOLD
lightning storm along the Brevard/Volusia coasts in the afternoon-
early evening, surrounding sea breeze formation and a few of these
cells which could kick back toward the coast and Intracoastals. A
few showers and storms across the inland lakes along and north of I-
4 in the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today...Previous...Decreasing moisture will result
in min RHs dropping to around 40 pct across the western interior
this afternoon. Winds SE 5-10 mph this morning back to ESE and
increase to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon behind
the sea breeze. Isolated lightning storms possible, mainly along and
north of I-4.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Sedlock/Fehling