Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 261146
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
646 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Have been monitoring wind speeds/wind gusts observations across
mid state region as these early morning hours have progressed.
Are occasionally getting a few gusts above 40 mph, but have not
received reports of any stronger gusts. As rain shield moves
further eastward, southeast and locations across Cumberland
Plateau Region which have over the last few hours have generally
been the locations reporting 40 mph + wind gusts, will see less
low level atmospheric mixing potential, and these higher gusts
should begin to reside. Will continue though with Wind Advisory
for entire mid state region through 26/12Z (7 AM CDT) this
morning. Will reevaluate by not later than 5 AM up to 6 AM time
frame per mandatory forecast update for first 36 hours of forecast
period if wind advisory will continue through 7 AM CDT, or if
portions if not all of wind advisory will be cancelled.

Showers, with maybe a rumble of thunder or two, continue pushing
eastward ahead of a pre frontal boundary moving through west TN
approaching the top of the hour. Main sfc frontal boundary still
positioned across southern MS River Valley Region. Look for this
prefrontal boundary to continue pushing eastward with main front
moving into mid state region as afternoon hours progress.
Continued with lean toward CAMs trends as it comes to chances of
precipitation through early afternoon hours today. Look for all
shower activity to end across our area by mid afternoon hours
today. Dry conditions will then prevail tonight through Wednesday.
Expect around 0.50" northeast to around 1.50" for locations
approaching TN/AL Border Region of additional rainfall amounts
before showers come to an end this afternoon. How far east main
surface front will push into our area as late afternoon hours
progress will be key to how high high temperatures will get today,
but am currently going with a persistence forecast on high
temperatures today, with highs ranging upper 60s to lower 70s, low
to mid 60s for locations just west of and across Cumberland
Plateau Region. With decreasing cloudiness trends as today through
tonight progresses, lows tonight initially look like they will be
around seasonal normal values, i.e. ranging upper 30s to lower
40s. The brunt of this cold air advection scenario behind this
surface frontal passage later today into tonight will be felt on
Wednesday, as high pressure influences out of southern Canada that
are diving into the plains push eastward into our area. Highs on
Wednesday will be a few degrees below seasonal normal values,
generally ranging upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Dry conditons look to continue through Sunday morning. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will return to our area as Sunday afternoon
through Monday progresses as a synoptic surface frontal system
centered in central plains by shortly after sunrise on Monday
morning slowly pushes eastward and upper level flow becomes
increasingly southwesterly orientated. After Tuesday night/
Wednesday when temperatures are forecasted to be slightly lower
than seasonal normal values, a warming trend will commence through
Monday afternoon. Lows Sunday night will range mid 50s to lower
60s. Highs next Monday look to range upper 70s to lower 80s, mid
70s Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Main area of rain is moving east of BNA and MQY this morning, but
SRB and CSV will likely see showers continue for a few more hours.
Intermittent MVFR cigs will be possible at all sites today as this
wave exits to the east. Winds remain gusty out of the south, but
they will shift more southwesterly and then west later today. They
should become light by 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  42  62  38 /  70   0   0   0
Clarksville    70  38  59  34 /  30   0   0   0
Crossville     62  40  62  37 / 100  10   0   0
Columbia       72  40  62  37 /  60   0   0   0
Cookeville     67  41  60  39 /  90  10   0   0
Jamestown      65  41  60  37 / 100  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   71  41  62  39 /  80   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   73  40  62  38 /  80   0   0   0
Waverly        70  38  60  37 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Whitehead


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