National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KOHX 150727
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
227 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Record highs are possible today as a strong ridge axis extending
from the Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest builds eastward
across Tennessee. Highs yesterday climbed well above all guidance
values. The warming and enhanced wind gusts occurred as full
sunshine and dry air allowed very deep vertical mixing. Mixing may
not be quite as strong today, but we should still meet or exceed
yesterday`s highs. Wind speeds will be much lower today as the
high pressure builds across the area.

BNA climate data for today:
Normal high 73
Forecast 87
Record 87 from 1936

BNA climate data for Tuesday:
Normal high 73
Forecast 87
Record 88 from 1955

The warm conditions will continue tonight and Tuesday under the
strong ridge. Winds will pick up again Tuesday, with gusts as high
as 30 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A strong low pressure system will move from the Plains to the
Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be occurring to our west late Tuesday along and
ahead of a cold front extending southward from the low pressure.
Severe wx is expected over the Ms Valley, but the storms will
weaken as they move east into the Tn Valley Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning as they outrun the instability out to our west.
In the wake of the Wednesday morning activity, additional
scattered showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of the cold
front. Uncertainty continues on how strong or widespread this
activity may get as the dynamics with the low pressure center lift
far to our north. Still, forecast sounding show a window of
opportunity Wednesday afternoon with favorable instability and
shear profiles for some severe storms.

The weakening cold front will move through Wednesday night and
the air will dry out for Thursday. Another stronger cold front
will drop down our way starting Thursday night. The front will
slowly ooze southward across the area as a series of waves move
along the frontal zone. This will mean gradual cooling Friday
through Sunday with on and off chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ridging influences sfc/aloft will continue thru 16/06Z. Of
particular note, with low level atmospheric pressure gradient
influences expected to continue thru 15/13Z, LLWS at top of 2 kft
layer probable with values 40kt CKV/BNA/MQY/SRB & 45kts CSV.
VFR thru 16/06Z. Although some passing upper level cloudiness
certainly not out of question, SKC conditions will mainly prevail
thru 16/06Z. Sfc winds will prevail S/SE 5-10kts thru 16/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  64  87  65 /   0  10  10  60
Clarksville    84  64  85  65 /   0  10  10  70
Crossville     80  59  81  61 /   0  10  10  30
Columbia       86  63  86  64 /   0  10  10  50
Cookeville     81  62  83  63 /   0  10  10  40
Jamestown      81  59  83  61 /   0  10  10  30
Lawrenceburg   84  63  85  64 /   0  10  10  50
Murfreesboro   86  62  87  65 /   0  10  10  50
Waverly        84  65  87  65 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright