533
FXUS61 KOKX 140023
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
823 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will pass to the northeast tonight as high
pressure remains stationary just offshore. The high will weaken
and move farther out into the Atlantic late Tuesday into Tuesday
night as a broad area of low pressure begins to approach from
the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The low will consolidate
into one area of low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast by
Wednesday night, then slowly pass to the south on Thursday.
Weak high pressure builds into the area Thursday night into
Friday. Another frontal system and wave of low pressure should
impact the area over the weekend, followed by high pressure
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A mid level shortwave riding through a weak upper ridge over
the eastern states has brought clouds to mainly CT and eastern
LI this evening and there will be intervals of clouds even for
western portions of the forecast area overnight. Have reduced
the area for sprinkles or light showers across far northern
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern CT
based on latest radar coverage and CAMs.

Lows tonight should range from the mid 50s in/around NYC, to
the upper 40s/lower 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A sfc high just offshore and sfc ridging aloft will pass slowly
east on Tue. After some morning sunshine clouds should
increase in the afternoon via WAA aloft in SW flow ahead of the
broad low approaching from the west, with chance of late day
showers well to the west of NYC. PoP increases Tue night to
likely/categorical NW of NYC Tue night and to chance across all
but eastern Long Island and SE CT. Can`t totally rule out an
isolated tstm but have not mentioned in the fcst attm. Rainfall
amts during this time frame should remain light, with no more
than 2-4 tenths of an inch NW of NYC, and even this could be
generous as latest NAM/GFS are drier than the NBM.

High temps on Tue, with SW low level flow and ridging aloft,
should be warmer than those of Monday, with highs 70-75 away
from the coast and in the 60s near most south facing shorelines.
Lows in the 50s expected for Tue night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A southern branch upper low being tugged on by another in the
northern branch gets left behind in the vicinity of the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. Guidance varies a bit on its
placement and with the resulting surface low that consolidates
off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night. The NAM is the most
northern solution of the 12Z guidance, while most are east of
the Delmarva. This difference could very well make for a big
difference in how much rain the area can expect. Overall, there
is clearly a southward shift in the guidance and both rain
chances and rainfall amounts have been backed down some.
Ensembles are generally clustering around their operational
runs, so not offering much help at this time. The best chance
for rain remains during the day Wednesday, then gradually
lowering Wednesday night into Thursday as the low tracks farther
offshore. Greatest rainfall amounts are across the NYC metro,
NE NJ, and western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, with
around 0.5 to 0.75". Amounts will lower to the northeast, lowest
across interior southern CT at around 0.3 to 0.4". Expect some
fluctuation until we get better agreement in the low track.
While most of the forecast closely followed the NBM, did go with
a weaker easterly flow based on the southward trend of the low.
There is the potential for NE gusts of 20 to 30 mph on the
backside of the low on Thursday.

Conditions likely dry out Thursday night into Friday, but there
is chance for low clouds/drizzle as weak warm advection
develops. There is some uncertainty as to how much dry air
advects into the area as high pressure ridges in from New
England.

Another system with some resemblance to the midweek system will
bring increasing chances of rain Friday night into Saturday,
possibly lingering into Sunday with another frontal wave passing
to the south off the Mid Atlantic coast. High pressure is then
forecast to follow behind early next week.

Temperatures through much of the period are forecast to be at
or just above normal for highs, but lows will generally be
above normal by about 5 degrees due to cloudy nights during the
forecast period. However, highs on Wednesday and Saturday are
forecast be a bit cooler due to the forecast of rain along with
easterly flow. Should the forecast continue to trend drier for
Wednesday, temperatures may need to be bumped up a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore into Tuesday morning, then moves
into the Atlantic as low pressure slowly approaches from the
southwest Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

VFR. There is a slight chance of showers late Tuesday afternoon
at KSWF, however, confidence on timing is low. Chances for
showers increases into the NYC metro terminals during Tuesday
evening, with conditions remaining VFR.

A southerly flow continues through the forecast period, under
10 kt tonight, and increasing to 10 to 14 kt Tuesday. Any gusts
that do occur Tuesday afternoon will be occasional.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: Low chance of MVFR in showers, most likely west
of the NYC metros.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in rain. Rain diminishes late at
night. NE winds G15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers. NE winds G20kt.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.

Saturday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing S flow should peak at 20 kt in the NY bight, with
seas up to 4 ft. Therefore a short fused SCA should not be
needed for early this evening. Conditions should remain below
SCA thresholds through Tuesday night.

A strengthening E-NE flow Wednesday into Wednesday night will
likely bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters, with the
potential for 25-30kt gusts and seas of 5 to 10 ft. Highest
winds and seas will be on Thursday, with gradually improving
conditions Thursday night into Friday as high pressure builds
in from the NE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW