Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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954 FXUS64 KOUN 280512 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Dangerous convective environment in place today and into tonight. Storms have already fired out west with severe and tornado warnings already issued this morning. A special balloon sounding issued by the NSSL near Weatherford shows a concerning profile with 2500 J/kg SBCAPE, 0-1km SRH near 25 kts, effective shear of 60 knots all indicative of a volatile air mass in place. A PDS Tornado Watch has already been issued for western Oklahoma and western north Texas with the expectation this will likely be expanded eastward within the next several hours. Guidance has trended a bit slower with the forward progression of supercell thunderstorms, and the latest indication is central Oklahoma should be impacted by dangerous supercell thunderstorms capable of producing strong to violent tornadoes within the 3 PM to 9 PM time frame. Complicating this is the high potential for very heavy rainfall which will quickly lead to flash flooding issues where these storms set up. The WPC has issued a high risk of flash flooding for parts of east-central Oklahoma, though it should be stressed that there is uncertainty with the placement of this. Central and southern Oklahoma are at risk of dangerous flash flooding issues. Repeated rounds of thunderstorms are expected, and the public should not let their guard down after a storm has passed. Many public events are occurring today and with people out of the office/school, there is a high concern in our office of people being out on the roads or away from shelters. We urge those who can to remain near a shelter today as the environment resembles that of previous historic tornadic outbreaks. Please heed warnings! Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Thunderstorms should exit our forecast area tomorrow morning. ADditional forecast details will be given with later packages. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Main line of storms is on track to clear all sites except DUA where an arrival around 2 AM is expected. Farther west near WWR, a small line of TS may survive its journey east and impact PNC during the pre-dawn hours, although this is too uncertain for mention in the TAF. Otherwise, some visby restrictions and MVFR ceilings are likely to develop well in the wake of the main line of storms before VFR resumes by mid/late morning. DUA remains likely to see another bout of TS by the afternoon ahead of the dryline and cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 55 80 61 85 / 10 10 0 10 Hobart OK 51 82 60 88 / 0 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 56 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 45 82 57 93 / 0 10 0 10 Ponca City OK 49 78 57 87 / 0 0 10 20 Durant OK 59 82 60 83 / 10 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020- 022>032-035-037>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...93/LUB