Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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873 FXUS63 KPAH 120449 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1149 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer this weekend with highs in the 80s on Sunday. - Storms come back to start off the work week, severe chances look limited. - Dry during mid week with storms coming back again to end the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Conditions stay dry and warmer through the weekend. We`re in northwest flow aloft as an upper level trof moves through the Ohio Valley and towards the northeast. Highs today are on track to top out in the mid to upper 70s with modest northwest winds. Shortwave ridging starts building aloft over the Plains. Tomorrow the shortwave ridging aloft moves overhead and helps highs to reach into the 80s. Our next system is an upper low and troughing that moves into the Plains by tomorrow night. Thunderstorm chances come back by Monday afternoon as the upper low/trof move toward the Midwest. As far as severe parameters go MUCAPE looks to be around 500-1,000 J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear is around 30 kts, and mid level lapse rates are around 6.5-7 degC/km. This is not the strongest signal for severe and is probably marginal at best. Storms continue on Tuesday as the low/trof move overhead and then brings a cold front through Tuesday night. Then we have a brief dry period till maybe Friday when an upper level shortwave moves through. NBM looks to bring PoPs back too early though, with chances starting as early as Thursday afternoon. The Euro and the GFS both keep Thursday dry. The Euro brings precip in on Friday morning whereas the GFS brings precip in Thursday overnight. With regards to severe parameters, MUCAPE looks to be around 1,000-1,500 J/kg, shear around 20-30 kts, and mid level lapse rates around 6-6.5 degC/km. Again, not the strongest and probably marginal at best. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Calm to light and variable winds will become southwest at 5-10kts after 12z, becoming more southerly toward 00z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY AVIATION...RST