399
FXUS61 KPHI 111424
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1024 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the region late this morning will move
offshore this evening. Low pressure centered over Michigan will
move eastward through this evening into Sunday. High pressure
builds south of the Mid- Atlantic region Sunday night into
Monday. Another area of low pressure brings more unsettled
weather by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fog has burned off earlier this morning, and all areas will be
mostly sunny into early afternoon. Clouds will increase by mid
afternoon as the next disturbance approaches the area tonight.
High temps should recover nicely into the low to mid 60s this
afternoon for most, with temps only reaching into the mid to
upper 50s across the Poconos and along the coast as onshore flow
develops late in the afternoon.

For tonight, some shower activity will begin to work its way into
the area after sunset from west to east as surface low exits the
Great Lakes region. The low will be accompanied by a cold front,
however the overall strength of the system will be weakening as it
nears. Widespread rain showers are anticipated with higher PoPs over
western areas where better forcing will be present. Rainfall up
to a quarter of an inch is expected. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong PVA will be moving over the region as a mid level trough digs
in through the Great Lakes on Sunday. With weak warm air advection
and sufficient lift provided by PVA expect a wet Sunday. Modest
amounts of instability will be possible but the strong shear is
displaced to the south with 40+ kts of 0-6km shear forecast over
southern VA with just 20-30kts over the forecast area.  Lapse rates
are decently strong (>7 over the northern portions of the forecast
area) so if a storm does develop it will likely take on pulse
characteristics with little moment.  With temps still below normal
and the warm air advection fairly weak it will be another dreary day
across the region with periods of rain and temperatures in the upper
50s/low 60s for Mother`s Day.

By Sunday evening, the trough starts to clear and the area should
begin to dry out as ridging builds in from the west. Expecting a
spread of 40s for overnight lows to close out the weekend.

A nice start to the week is expected with a broad area of high
pressure working in. Temperatures moderate back to near-normal
levels for mid-May, with low to mid 70s expected for most. The
exception being the southern Poconos and along the coast, where
highs will stay in the 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny with some
passing clouds at times

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The work week looks to continue to be somewhat active with a
couple of systems moving through during the week. Temperatures
are forecast to be close to normal for early to mid May.
Ensemble guidance points to rainfall but continues to suggest
that forcing is not currently lining up to lead to much in the
way of any severe weather for the week ahead.

The first system to bring showers and thunderstorms should move
through on Tuesday but again the best shear and instability
don`t overlap so while there is a medium to high chance
(60-70%) of showers and embedded thunderstorms, we are not
anticipating any severe weather. The wet weather is expected to
linger through the day on Wednesday before a ridge builds in for
Thursday bringing dry sensible weather. Towards the end of the
week or perhaps the weekend, the next system starts moving
towards the region and will have the potential to bring another
round of showers with embedded thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of today...VFR. Winds becoming E-SE 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight...VFR early, then ceilings will be dropping into the
1500 to 3000 ft range as rain showers move into the area after
03Z Lehigh Valley and Poconos, and after 06Z for the remainder
of the region. Visibility may drop to 3-5SM in fog late tonight.
Southeast winds 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low
ceilings and reduced visibility with periods of rain moving
through.

Monday through Tuesday...No significant weather expected.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions expected
with showers. Chance of thunderstorms (15-25%) Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters from Manasquan Inlet to
Fenwick Island until 6 PM today due to seas remaining above 5 feet.
Elsewhere, seas will remain below SCA criteria. Winds will become
east- southeast 10-15 kt by this afternoon. Southeast winds
then continue into tonight around 10-15 kt. Seas are expected to
subside to 3-4ft tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...No marine headlines expected.

Monday Night through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible
(30-40%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Seas will get near 5 feet
on Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is forecast again for the Saturday
evening high tide in New Jersey and Delaware however the flood
waters should be on the order of about a half of a foot lower
than earlier Saturday. For the Chesapeake, flooding is not
expected at this time for our Maryland zones.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Deal/Franklin
NEAR TERM...Desilva/Franklin
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Deal/Desilva/Franklin
MARINE...Deal/Desilva/Franklin
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...