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000
FXUS65 KPUB 200502
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1102 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag conditions continue this evening over the San Luis
   Valley.

 - Rain, snow, and occasional weak thunderstorms continue from
   this evening into tomorrow, especially for portions of the
   high country and the Pikes Peak region.

 - Periodic showers for the mountains and frontal intrusions
   across the plains but overall warmer, especially later next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Quick update to the forecast grids to incorporate latest obs
data, and for the expiration of the Red Flag Warning for the San
Luis Valley. Isolated to scattered light rain showers will be
possible across the I-25 Corridor this evening, though QPF
amounts will be very light. The showers will likely be snow over
Monument Hill and across Teller County, with new snow amounts
up to around 2 inches possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Currently..

Radar and satellite imagery depict extensive cloud cover and light
precipitation over portions of our central mountains, the La
Garitas, and the Pikes Peak region as of 2pm. Temperatures are well
above freezing across the area this afternoon, with some locations
even in the 50s this hour despite today`s cloud cover. Most of the
high country is already seeing northwesterly winds, with
southeasterly winds still prevailing over the plains. The San Luis
Valley is very dry and windy, and is still under a Red Flag Warning
until 7pm this evening. Observations across the area indicate
southwesterly winds gusting to 30 mph this hour, with relative
humidity values in the low teens. Conditions are expected to improve
quickly after midnight, as moist easterly winds will likely begin to
push in through the terrain east of the valley.

This Evening and Tonight..

As better lift continues to move in from west to east across
northern portions of the forecast area, expecting showers to
continue to spread into Fremont County, the Northern Sangres, the
Wet Mountains, and eventually El Paso and northern Pueblo counties
as well. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible as well later
this afternoon and this evening. Precipitation looks to stay liquid
until at least 7pm or so for locations below 10,000ft. After sunset
we will start to rain/snow mix along the Palmer Divide and higher
elevations of Teller County, with an eventual transition to all snow
by midnight, and through the early morning hours for lower
elevations of El Paso County. Overall impacts are expected to be
very minimal, with highest new snow amounts being around 4 inches
for highest elevations of the central mountains and Pikes Peak. Most
locations will see 2 inches or less of wet snow with this warm
system. Snow showers spread southward into our southeast mountains
through the overnight hours, though accumulations are expected to be
light down south as well.

Tomorrow..

Shortwave energy brings another round of showers and weak
thunderstorms to the high country tomorrow in the late morning and
early afternoon hours, some of which will begin to leak out onto the
plains by early afternoon. Upslope induced, light snow showers
continue through the early morning hours of tomorrow on the plains,
though dense fog and low clouds could end up being more of a
forecast challenge overall, especially for El Paso County. With
continued upslope conditions and southeasterly winds through the
morning hours, it could be difficult to break out of the cloud cover
for long before the next round of showers and weak thunderstorms
begins push off the mountains and into the I-25 corridor. High res
model guidance points towards a possible clearing period from around
10am through 2pm, though with continued southeasterly winds during
that timeframe, confidence is low to medium for substantial clearing
over locations that are favored in southeasterly upslope winds.
Spotty rain showers and storms look to continue pushing off the
terrain and into the I-25 corridor through the afternoon hours
tomorrow, with precipitation remaining all liquid, and temperatures
warming into the upper 40s to mid 50s for our plains despite
extensive cloud cover. The warmest spot on the map looks to be the
San Luis Valley tomorrow, where highs look to reach into the mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The upper trough passes to the east Saturday night with showers
coming to an end from north to south. Any additional snow
accumulation across the higher elevations will be light.
Shortwave ridging is expected for Sunday with warmer and drier
weather returning.

Westerly flow increases for Monday as another system passes to the
north.  This will bring warmer temperatures along with gustier winds
to the region.  Will need to monitor the San Luis Valley and
southern I-25 corridor locations for possible fire weather
highlights, however matters get complicated by an afternoon
arrival of a cold front across the plains in the wake of the
passing system to the north. The GFS, being on the faster and
more southern side of solutions with the eastward progression of
the northern plains upper low, backdoors this front into
eastern portions of the area in the afternoon. The remainder of
the models hold the front off until Monday night. Suspect we
will need another Fire Weather Watch as we get closer to the
event and details on location become more certain.

Temperatures get knocked down a few degrees for Tuesday and post
frontal upslope flow and afternoon instability bring an uptick in
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over and near
the mountains. Southwest flow increases for late week with
increasing spread in extended models on the timing of the next
upper wave. Overall, the pattern remains unsettled with a ramp
up in critical fire weather conditions possible late week, along
with the possibility of some dry line thunderstorms along our
eastern border on Wednesday. A more widespread uptick in showers
and thunderstorms with the next system and cold front comes
late week or into next weekend, though the variations in timing
make this a low confidence forecast for the time being. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KALS throughout the
forecast period. There will be VFR/IFR conditions for KCOS and KPUB
due to low CIGs/-RA and possible LIFR in KCOS due to FG in the
morning hours. Conditions will not improve much for both KCOS and
KPUB with CIGs only increasing to MVFR criteria during the day but
then likely dropping back to IFR criteria towards the end of the
forecast period. VCSH will also likely to remain throughout the
entire period for both locations. Winds will be synoptically
driven at all terminals, mostly out of the SE at KALS, then
coming around to the NW by later in the day and could get gusty
before returning out of the SE towards the end of the forecast
period. At KCOS and KPUB, then will switch from NE to SE, then
back to NE by later in the evening by tomorrow evening. -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...STEWARD